The Vietnamese real estate market is expected to see clear signals of recovery by mid-2025, and developers are preparing for a new growth cycle.

A real estate project under development. Photo by The Investor/Vu Pham.

As many experts forecast, the real estate market will start to improve from Q2/2025, with rising investor confidence. By the beginning of 2026, the sector is hoped to stabilize, with many segments making a comeback.

Once the revised Land Law, Housing Law, and Real Estate Business Law come to life with complete guidance, the “waiting” mentality will go away, and project developers will begin racing to remove bottlenecks with support from authorities. Developers will be more confident in releasing products, which will boost investor trust and encourage the flow of bank deposits into real estate.

However, at this time, most property developers are focusing on sales before deciding on plans for the next phase. Some developers, after gauging the market, have decided to push back their sales plans to 2025, waiting for a more favorable legal environment.

Many positive signs

The Vietnam National Real Estate Association (VnREA) reported that in 2024, although sales had recovered since the beginning of the year, most real estate developers still faced challenges in achieving their profit targets.

Data showed a significant decline of 20% in revenue and 43% in profit against 2023, largely due to a sharp decrease in handovers. Although the market showed some signs of recovery, it still felt the impact of previous backlogs, making it difficult for more than 60% of companies to meet their financial goals for 2024.

On the market, housing demand continued to remain high, with a positive absorption rate, reflecting strong growth in home loan activities. This suggested a clear recovery in buyer sentiment.

Nguyen Huong, CEO of Dai Phuc Land, noted that in Q2/2024, market sentiment started to recover. Developers actively launched new projects for sale, moving away from the cautious approach seen in 2022 and 2023.

“People began to spend money purchasing homes, with notable increases in transactions. Banks, instead of restricting real estate loans, offered reasonable home loan packages.

“Additionally, brokerage firms started actively recruiting staff again, expanding sales operations and product lines, rather than focusing on a single area or a single product category as they did previously. As real estate businesses grow, the market is expected to become more bustling,” she said.

In terms of product lines, Huong believed the market is experiencing a significant shift. In the South, the southeastern region will see strong growth in affordable apartment segments, while the Mekong Delta region will continue to focus on townhouses and land plots.

Similarly, Ngo Quang Phuc, CEO of Phu Dong Group, stated that at the end of 2024, the market showed some positive signs, but a breakout is not yet possible and will require more time.

“The recovery of the housing segment in large urban areas will create liquidity and drive the market. Furthermore, signs of economic recovery and efforts to bring the revised Housing Law, the revised Real Estate Business Law, and the revised Land Law into life will help boost investor confidence and remove legal bottlenecks,” he commented.

Regarding the company’s plans, Phuc said that Phu Dong is handing over the Phu Dong Sky Garden project in Di An town, Binh Duong province, which borders Ho Chi Minh City. The company also plans to launch the Phu Dong SkyOne project, also in Di An.

In preparation for the 2025 market, the firm is finalizing legal procedures for two other projects in Binh Duong. Of these, the 8-hectare Phu Dong 4 will feature two product lines: townhouses and apartments; while Phu Dong 6, spanning more than 6,000 square meters, will be a high-end apartment complex.

Ready for new growth cycle

Director of a real estate company in HCMC who declined to be named held that affordable housing that meets real needs will dominate in 2025.

The reason many companies are rushing to develop this product line is the absence of developers in this segment, while the demand is still substantial. Additionally, local housing development policies are also focusing on this type, the executive added.

A representative from Nam Long Group reported that the company’s sales in the first 11 months of 2024 reached VND4.6 trillion ($183.41 million). Of this, Phase 2 of the Akari City project contributed 37%, Southgate 31%, Can Tho 19%, and Mizuki Park 13%.

For 2025, Nam Long expects sales to be higher than the initial target for 2024 (VND9.55 trillion or $380.8 million), and profit after minority shareholder interests is projected to grow from last year.

Real estate revenue in Q4/2024 is expected to reach VND5.6 trillion ($233.3 million), significantly better than the low base in the first nine months of the year, which was only VND1.5 trillion ($59.8 million), mainly from projects like phase 2 of Akari City and Can Tho, which began handovers in October 2024.

Nam Long’s leadership anticipated that sales in 2025 will be boosted by the launch of the next phases of existing projects, as well as new projects like Nam Long Hai Phong and Paragon Dai Phuoc in Dong Nai province.

Meanwhile, Nguyen Van Hau, CEO of Asian Holding, said that the company plans to launch new products, including about 100 land plots in Dong Nai. These plots will be priced at VND12-13 million ($518) per square meter, and customers will immediately receive the land use rights certificate upon purchase.

Hau predicted that the remainder of this year will still be led by the apartment segment. The real estate market has only just begun to stabilize, with market participants still facing many difficulties due to previous economic impacts. Additionally, legal procedures related to land still encounter many unresolved issues, preventing many projects from moving forward.

“Although new related laws have come into effect, we must wait for guiding circulars to remove the legal bottlenecks, and only then will the market truly recover in 2025. More importantly, customer sentiment needs to be improved. Once this psychological barrier is removed, new capital will flow into real estate. As we have seen, recently, customers still carry a defensive mindset, hesitant to invest in properties,” he explained.

To prepare for the new market phase, Asian Holding is also reshaping its product lines. Instead of distributing products for other developers, Hau said his firm will focus on its own projects in Dong Nai and Binh Phuoc to launch this year.