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Vietnam may struggle with new GDP growth rate target of 8 per cent

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A United Overseas Bank expert has urged caution about Vietnam’s 2025 growth target of 8 per cent given the uncertain environment.

Vietnam may struggle with new GDP growth rate target of 8 per cent
Source: UOB

On February 19, the National Assembly raised the 2025 growth target to at least 8 per cent while looking to target double-digit growth from 2026-2030, while the official forecast remains at 6.5-7 per cent.

“It is certainly possible to achieve high growth of 8 per cent or even double-digit, as Singapore and China have gone through such experience, and Vietnam has strong momentum from 2024 when it hit above 7 per cent,” Suan Teck Kin, executive director in global economics and markets research at the United Overseas Bank (UOB).

For Vietnam to achieve better than 7 per cent, and 8 per cent or higher in 2025, it will be challenging because tariff threats made by the US could potentially impact one of Vietnam’s growth engines: international trade, he added.

Vietnam is very exposed to international trade, as the export size is 90 per cent of GDP, the second highest in ASEAN after Singapore (174 per cent), and some way ahead of Malaysia (69 per cent). In addition, Vietnam’s largest export market is the US, which accounts for about a 30 per cent share.

The strong GDP performance in Vietnam in 2024 was due to trade, as total exports rose by 14 per cent after shrinking in 2023. The other factor was the strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow to Vietnam in 2024, which reached a record $25.4 billion ($2 billion higher than in 2023) for realised FDI. In addition, the semiconductor cycle seems to be falling after the strong run in 2024.

The UOB expert pointed out some challenges for Vietnam amid Trump tariff threats. Indirectly, if export demand comes down due to slower activities, that will impact Vietnam’s export performance and GDP growth. If Trump hits Vietnam with direct tariffs because of the US trade deficit with Vietnam, that will spread through the manufacturing and services sectors and impact spending.

“The slowdown in the semiconductor cycle will impact Vietnam’s main export items. In addition, the Purchasing Managers’ Index for Vietnam shrunk for two straight months in December and January, signalling that orders may be slowing and manufacturers may be easing production activities,” Kin emphasised.

“FDI inflows may also be subject to tariff policy as companies may reconsider diverting some of their investments to other locations that may be less likely to be hit with Trump tariffs,” he added. “As such, I urge caution for the 2025 growth target given the uncertain environment. At this moment, I’ll keep the growth forecast for Vietnam at 7 per cent for 2025.”

Kin raised some areas that the government could do to bolster the chances of achieving high growth of 8 per cent or even double-digits in 2026-2030, “although I want the pace to be stable to reduce overheating and wastage.”

One area is to increase substantial public investment to support growth and cushion declines from export and manufacturing activities, the UOB expert raised. Another is infrastructure build-up that Vietnam is currently lacking. Data from the International Monetary Fund shows that capital formation expenditure is about 30 per cent of GDP, which is far lower than the 41 per cent share for China.

In addition, Vietnam’s fiscal stance looks to be overly conservative at this early stage of development, as the government is targeting to lower its public debt to GDP from the current 35 per cent to 31 per cent by 2029. “To increase public investment, it may be necessary to increase leverage and debt,” Kin proposed.

He also claimed the other issue that even if public investment in infrastructure is made, it must carry the benefit of accelerating growth while investment is being spent, with rising productivity in the long term once the projects are completed.

It is encouraging to learn that the National Assembly has approved the $8 billion railway project from China to Vietnam, and the North-South highway expansion is nearing complete, as well an increased budget for the transport ministry. “Other infrastructure needs also require support, particularly related to AI/data, power generation, and water,” he emphasised.

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ACCA event highlights technology’s role in sustainability practices

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The commitment of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) to supporting firms in their development was evidenced at a conference on technology’s role in applying sustainability practices that took place in Ho Chi Minh City on March 12.

The event presented key topics including international standards and technological solutions for carbon emissions’ management, environmental, social, and governance policy evaluation based on global standards, and the application of technology in optimising operational costs.

ACCA event highlights technology's role in sustainability practices
ACCA event highlights technology’s role in sustainability practices

The conference served as a platform for future-oriented businesses to share their successes and challenges while fostering collaboration among those committed to sustainability.

During the conference, Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia, delivered in-depth insights into ACCA’s role in supporting businesses in building sustainable development capabilities.

Citing 2024 trade figures, Varma noted that Vietnam’s import-export turnover maintained unprecedented levels over the past 40 years, supported by the enforcement of over 17 trade agreements.

Vietnam-EU trade exceeded $67 billion, with numerous domestic enterprises integrating into European and global supply chains.

“Implementing sustainability reporting is imperative for Vietnamese firms participating in global supply chains to comply with Europe’s mandatory sustainability disclosure regulations. The key challenge is how businesses can effectively implement sustainability reporting with existing resources while meeting international standards,” said Varma.

Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia speech at the conference. Photo: ACCA Vietnam
Ren Varma, head of Mainland Southeast Asia, ACCA. Photo: ACCA Vietnam

Representatives from various other organisations, such as VACPA, FPT, Unilever, HDBank, PwC, and the University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City shared their experiences in leveraging technology for sustainability.

These real-world case studies enabled participants to gain practical insights into how best to apply technology to sustainable management, while understanding the essential competencies required for effective implementation.

At the event, experts reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing capabilities and professional expertise in achieving national sustainable development goals and the target of Net-Zero by 2050.

Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia with other speakers at the conference. Photo: ACCA Vietnam
Photo: ACCA Vietnam

ACCA pledged its continued support by launching the Professional Diploma in Sustainability (ProDipSust) across more than 180 countries, including Vietnam. This initiative aims to equip professionals with the necessary expertise to implement sustainable business practices.

ProDipSust not only provides in-depth knowledge on sustainability but also guides businesses on practical applications, from understanding international frameworks and regulations to strategic management, sustainability reporting, and assurance.

Recognised as a globally standardised knowledge framework, this diploma plays a crucial role in strengthening corporate sustainability governance, ensuring transparency, and complying with international standards.

Beyond offering training programmes, ACCA actively collaborates with leading organisations to drive sustainable development initiatives.

Beyond offering training activities, ACCA collaborates with major organisations to drive sustainability initiatives. In this seminar, ACCA Vietnam, in partnership with VACPA and PwC Vietnam, established a highly practical forum to help Vietnamese firms align with international standards and devise effective sustainability strategies.

Ren Varma underscored the critical role of finance and accounting professionals in advancing sustainable development, saying, “Financial expertise is not just about financial reporting, it plays a fundamental role in shaping sustainable strategies. Finance professionals are responsible for integrating sustainability initiatives into business models, accurately measuring their impact, and transparently communicating them to stakeholders. ACCA’s certification serves as a vital tool for businesses and individuals to enhance their expertise in this field.”

“With a strong commitment to fostering sustainability competencies, ACCA will continue to support businesses and financial professionals on their journey towards a responsible and sustainable economy,” he added.

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Ho Chi Minh City looks to develop potential of Saigon River

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Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.

Ho Chi Minh City will lead toward the sea and along Saigon river

Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.

Photo: Le Toan

Talking with VIR on March 4, Doan Manh Thang, director of water and resilience at Royal HaskoningDHV Vietnam, said the Saigon River has great potential but has not been exploited properly. The plan will map out a waterway from Cu Chi to the city centre.

Royal HaskoningDHV is the leader of a consortium that includes Boston Consulting Group, Roland Berger, the Ministry of Construction, and ACUD Consult that has been tasked with developing this plan which was approved by the prime minister on December 31, 2024.

The plan aims to develop Ho Chi Minh City into a hub of high-quality human resources, modern services, and advanced industries, pioneering in the green economy, the digital economy, and a digital society. It will also maintain its position as Vietnam’s leading centre for economy, finance, commerce, culture, education, and science and technology, with deep international integration.

“We can build service areas such as marinas and commercial centres along the river, alongside green spaces,” Thang said.

Moreover, a metro line from the city centre to Can Gio Island could act as the driving force for the city to reach double-digit growth, he confirmed.

Can Gio Port, meanwhile, is strategically located opposite Cai Mep-Thi Vai Port – the largest international port in Vietnam. However, it is only operating at 50 per cent capacity. The government has decided to upgrade Can Gio Port to become an international transit centre, with an estimated investment of $4 billion. The port is expected to handle 10 per cent of Vietnam’s imports and exports, of which 90 per cent will be international transshipment.

According to Phan Van Mai, newly appointed Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee and former Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, the city will strive for regional GDP growth of 8.5-9.0 per year until 2030.

“To effectively implement the plan, the city needs to mobilise resources, attract investment, develop human resources, and apply science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and environmental protection,” Mai said.

Meanwhile, Thang said that the biggest bottleneck in implementing this plan is the lack of mechanisms to entice capital.

“Public investment is the seed capital to stimulate investment from other economic sectors. In fact, many investors are interested, but the mechanisms for investment must be more detailed,” he said.

A resolution issued in June 2023 grants special mechanisms for the development of Ho Chi Minh City. Meanwhile, in February 2025, the National Assembly issued another resolution for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City to invest and develop metro systems. On that basis, Ho Chi Minh City will invest simultaneously and complete seven routes with a total length of 355km within 10 years.

“Initially, the state will have to spend money because it will be difficult to attract investment, but when it starts to take shape, private investors will be looking to spend money to build infrastructure. This would remove the bottleneck, but still requires appropriate policies,” Thang said.

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Ho Chi Minh City International Financial Centre to be built in Thu Thiem New Urban Area

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Thu Thiem New Urban Area on the Saigon River has been allocated as the site for Vietnam’s first International Financial Centre.

Ho Chi Minh City International Financial Centre to be built in Thu Thiem New Urban Area
Thu Thiem New Urban Area – the new financial and economic hub of Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Le Toan

In total, 11 plots covering 9.2 hectares in the Number 1 Functional Area will be used for the project in Thu Duc city.

The location was reported to the local Department of Telecommunications on March 11 to set up a plan to develop telecommunications and digital infrastructure for the centre.

​​Thu Thiem New Urban Area was approved in 1996 covering 930 hectares on the east bank of the Saigon River and opposite District 1. When completed, the area will have a population of 200,000 people.

The area will be divided into a central core, a northern residential area, a residential area along Mai Chi Tho Avenue, an eastern residential area, and a southern zone.

On January 4, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired a conference to announce an action plan to implement a regional and international financial centre in Ho Chi Minh City.

At the conference, PM Chinh said that Ho Chi Minh City is located at the head of Southeast Asia, making it convenient for trade and financial connections with major markets such as China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN. Building a financial centre there will help reduce costs and transaction times for traders.

To accelerate the project, early this year, Ho Chi Minh City established a steering committee for the construction and development of the centre with 29 members. The establishment of the international financial centre is expected to create a foundation for the future growth of Ho Chi Minh City. This is also an opportunity for the city to attract international investors and increase foreign investment in various sectors.

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