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Volatile commodities prices portend a challenging 2025
Published
3 months agoon
Slowing growth and geopolitical risks will weigh on oil and copper although gold will continue to benefit from safe haven demand, writes Heng Koon How, head of markets strategy at Singapore-based bank UOB.

Heng Koon How, head of markets strategy at UOB. Photo courtesy of the bank.
It has been a difficult and challenging year for major commodities across 2024. Brent crude oil peaked at around $90 per barrel in the second quarter and has since retreated to around $75 per barrel.
Copper – another barometer to the health of the world economy – peaked at just under $11,000 per metric tonne in the second quarter and has fallen in tandem to struggle at $9,000 per metric tonne level in December.
Gold, on the other hand, will continue to benefit from economic and geopolitical uncertainties, and continue its strong run next year.
Slowing growth from both China and the Eurozone have weighed on oil and copper prices
Both Brent crude oil and copper’s volatile price actions are symptomatic of an increasingly challenging backdrop for the global economy.
After the initial euphoria from the latest round of stimulus, investors have come to acknowledge that China’s economic recovery remains fraught with challenges. Much still needs to be done to restructure the massive debt overhang in the domestic property sector. Both consumer and investor confidence in China have yet to recover meaningfully, and as such, retail spending growth remains weak and the money supply continues to contract.
Adding further pressure to China’s weakening economy is the daunting prospect of even higher trade tariffs next year from the second Trump administration. As such, we have downgraded China’s GDP growth forecast next year by 0.3 percentage points to 4.3%. Realistically, it is becoming increasingly difficult for China to achieve its 5% growth target.
In Europe, the growth outlook is increasingly challenging too. Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Eurozone countries now need to spend much more fiscally for their collective defence. This higher indebtedness is coming at a time when growth for both Germany and France, traditionally Eurozone’s twin industrial powerhouses, are now near borderline recessionary levels. Specifically, France’s sovereign rating has been cut recently due to the worsening budget and political crisis.
As such, it is no surprise that the European Central Bank (ECB) has been actively cutting rates, dropping its benchmark refinancing rate from 4.5% at the start of 2024 to 3.15% by December. 2025 is likely to be challenging for both France and Germany. In particular, Germany’s Federal Election in February 2025 has the potential to inject even more uncertainty into the economy.
Trade tariffs provide another overhang
For Brent crude oil, the historical dynamics among the key energy producers have now been overturned. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is finding it increasingly difficult to stabilize crude oil prices and maintain market share. This is because they have increasingly ceded market share and pricing power to the U.S.
With a daily production of about 13.5 million barrels per day, the U.S. is now the world’s largest producer of crude oil. U.S. energy production has jumped over the past decade under the initial expansion from the first Trump administration and the follow up expansion by the Biden administration.
In contrast, forced to maintain its production cuts, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production is now much lower at just 9 million barrels per day. In short, the U.S. now produces about 50% more crude oil each day than Saudi Arabia.
With slowing growth from both China and Eurozone, the outlook for global energy demand has been repeatedly downgraded by OPEC. As such, the threat of oversupply keeps Brent crude oil prices depressed. We see another challenging year for Brent crude oil around its current levels of $70 to $75 per barrel. In addition, we cannot rule out the risk of Brent crude oil falling below $70 should the second Trump administration ramp up both China and global tariffs significantly in 2025.
As for copper, it has lived up to its nickname of “Dr Copper” – which refers to the ability to use the commodity’s prices to predict the health of the economy. With prices struggling just under $9,000 per metric tonne by end-2024, “Dr Copper” is signaling more weakness and pain ahead for the global economy in 2025.
In particular, copper prices are very allergic to the fears of China’s economic slowdown. With China’s industrial activity yet to pick up meaningfully, stocks of copper on major exchanges worldwide have picked up. The cash spread for copper is at a large discount, implying weak immediate demand. As such, we have a negative outlook for copper and see it sliding further to $7,500 per metric tonne by end-2025.
Upside possible for Brent crude oil and copper in the medium to long term
It is important to note that while the short-term outlook for both Brent crude oil and copper are decidedly negative, the medium- to longer-term outlook may be entirely different. For Brent crude oil, the futures curve is mostly flat and there does not seem to be much risk premium priced in. This is despite the on-going conflicts and geopolitical risks across the Middle East. Any escalation in the region could crimp the supply of crude and send prices upwards.
As for copper, it is well acknowledged that over the medium term, there is an increasing risk of supply deficits. Lower supply from aging copper mines will fail to catch up with rising demand from the green transition and the increasing global adoption of electric vehicles. As such, price takers and consumers of both Brent crude oil and copper may take advantage of the lower current prices to hedge their future needs.
Gold to continue its rally on safe haven demand
However, one particular commodity is benefitting strongly from economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold has had a very strong year for 2024, rallying by about one-third from $2,000 per ounce in January to the current level at around $2,600 per ounce. From a longer-term perspective, the positive drivers remain intact – including on-going Emerging Market and Asian central bank allocation into gold, and strong physical gold and jewellery demand from the retail sector.
There is a common thread running through the rising demand from central banks and the retail sector. Both are driven by the need to diversify away from rising geopolitical concerns and uncertainties around the US dollar, ahead of disruptive trade and fiscal policies from the second Trump term.
We remain confident of our positive view for gold as long-term safe haven demand needs will likely stay strong amid a further rise in geopolitical and economic risks from Trump 2.0. We see gold rising further to eventually $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. Immediate strength in the US dollar may trigger some near term consolidation in gold before it resumes its rally as 2025 progresses.
The year ahead will bring differing fates for Brent crude oil, copper and gold.
Both Brent crude oil and copper will likely be weighed down by the worsening economic growth outlook for China and Europe. Concerns over the disruptive impact from higher trade tariffs under the second Trump administration will also be negative for these two commodities. This is despite the generally constructive outlook for the U.S. economy.
However, gold will likely benefit from the uncertainty and continue its strong rally across 2025.
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Bac Giang International Logistics Centre was launched on April 22 with an investment of $168 million, and is expected to become a crucial link in the global supply chain.
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Bac Giang International Logistics Centre launch |
Being invested by CNCTech Group, Dolphin Sea Air Services Corporation and Thien An Investment JSC, the logistics centre is located on National Highway 1A, which boasts first-class warehouse supply to meet the growing demand in the northern Vietnamese market.
Its strategic position within the golden economic triangle of Hanoi – Haiphong – Quang Ninh provides convenient connectivity to industrial zones and key logistics centres via national highways No.1A and No.37.
The centre is designed to meet growing demand for logistics infrastructure from businesses in Bac Giang and neighbouring provinces, positioning the area as a new node in northern Vietnam’s logistics network.
The project is a strategic product as a key component of the logistics spearhead in CNCTech Group’s industrial and logistics infrastructure ecosystem. It has been approved by the prime minister as a national level-II logistics centre, covering a planned area of 67 hectares.
At the launch ceremony, Chairman of Bac Giang People’s Committee Nguyen Viet Oanh said, “In recent years, the province’s socioeconomic development has made remarkable strides. Transportation, urban, industrial, and social infrastructure have been synchronously invested in and have yielded high efficiency. However, the province’s logistics service sector has not yet matched its potential, advantages, and socioeconomic development level. The logistics system remains fragmented, transportation costs are high, and trade delivery times are prolonged.”
Recognising this bottleneck, the local authorities have focused on directing the robust development of the logistics system, incorporating it into the provincial plan. This includes developing eight comprehensive logistics centres covering nearly 500ha, three inland container depots, and 33 inland waterway ports.
“Bac Giang, with its strategic location between Hanoi and border provinces, has long been known as a dynamic industrial hub. The remarkable development of the province’s industrial parks has created a solid foundation for the establishment of Bac Giang International Logistics Centre. This centre is not only located on vital transportation routes such as Hanoi-Lang Son Expressway but also directly connects to major border gates, optimising the transport of goods from Bac Giang to the world,” said Oanh.
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A model of the logistics centre |
The project is not merely a warehousing facility, but also a symbol of the integration of modern infrastructure and advanced technology. The centre includes multifunctional warehouse areas, customs-controlled warehouses, non-tariff warehouses, and automated warehouses, meeting the needs of various industries. Notably, it integrates end-to-end logistics solutions, supporting businesses in optimising transportation costs and enhancing production efficiency.
With a long-term vision, the centre aims not only to optimise domestic supply chains but also to become a key connection point in the global logistics network.
Nguyen Van Hung, chairman of the Board of Members of CNC Tech Group, shared, “The establishment of this centre is a strategic step in developing Vietnam’s logistics infrastructure. We are committed to long-term and robust investment in this sector, as logistics is not just infrastructure but an indispensable part of enhancing the competitiveness of Vietnamese businesses on the international stage.”
Vietnam has taken strong action to promote green development among businesses, amid the country facing challenges in finance and technology.
Vietnamese Party General Secretary To Lam told the fourth Summit of the Partnering for Green Growth and the Global Goals 2030 (P4G), organised last week in Hanoi, that Vietnam is focused on strategic breakthroughs to prepare for a national development process that is fast, inclusive, and sustainable.
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The summit in Hanoi covered areas from finance and banking to agriculture and technology Photo: Dung Minh |
“We will strongly transform political commitments into practical actions, creating motivation for businesses and the whole society to participate in sustainable economic development, in which green institutions are the decisive foundation,” General Secretary Lam stressed at a hall attended by government leaders, UN representatives, diplomats, experts, and entrepreneurs.
General Secretary Lam also stressed that when it comes to green transformation, despite being a developing country with a transitional economy and limited resources, Vietnam has achieved some important results.
Besides making a 2050 net-zero commitment in 2021, Vietnam also endorsed six global initiatives at the time, on forest and land use, methane, clean power transition, sustainable food and agriculture, and more.
“Vietnam is now a leading country in supplying renewable energy in ASEAN, with wind and solar power capacity accounting for two-thirds of ASEAN’s total capacity,” he said.
“Additionally, Vietnam is also a good example of encouraging sustainable agriculture. The initiative to develop one million hectares of high-quality and low-emission specialised rice is a pioneering model that many partners and international organisations are interested in.”
A greener future
Vietnam is an active and responsible member of all multilateral mechanisms and major initiatives on green growth and energy transition such as the Paris Agreement on climate change, the Just Energy Transition Partnership, and the P4G.
“However, as a developing country with a transitional economy, we also face many challenges in terms of financial resources, technology, personnel, and resilience to the impacts of climate change and geopolitical fluctuations globally,” said General Secretary Lam.
The summit adopted the Hanoi Declaration, strongly affirming commitments to sustainable growth with people at the centre, and a determination to collaborate responsibly in addressing current global challenges. Vietnam is expected to enjoy continued support from the international community in its journey to a green economy including energy transition.
According to the World Bank, to ensure sufficient funding for responding to climate change, mobilising domestic finance is possible, but external support is needed.
Overall, Vietnam’s total incremental financing needs for the resilient and decarbonising pathways could reach $368 billion over 2022–2040, or approximately 6.8 per cent of GDP per year.
The resilient pathway alone will account for about two-thirds of this amount, as substantial financing will be required to protect the country’s assets and infrastructure as well as vulnerable people.
The cost of the decarbonising pathway will mainly arise from the energy sector – investments in renewables and managing the transition away from coal might cost around $64 billion between 2022 and 2040. All the figures are in net present value terms at a discount rate of 6 per cent.
This $368 billion in financing needs will include $184 billion from private investments or about 3.4 per cent of GDP annually, $130 billion or about 2.4 per cent of GDP annually from the state budget; and $54 billion or about 1 per cent of GDP per year from external sources.
Choi Youngsam, South Korean Ambassador to Vietnam, said that within the P4G framework, South Korea and Vietnam have completed or are currently implementing joint projects in areas such as food and agriculture, energy, water, and urban development.
“Looking ahead, both sides are expected to broaden and deepen their partnership under the P4G framework,” he said.
At the P4G Summit held in Seoul in May 2021, the two governments signed the Framework Agreement on Cooperation in Response to Climate Change, laying a solid policy foundation for the implementation of international emissions reduction ventures.
“On this basis, I hope that South Korea will leverage its technological expertise and financial resources to carry out greenhouse gas emission reduction projects in Vietnam, with both countries mutually recognising the results,” Ambassador Youngsam said.
“This would contribute to establishing a win-win model of emissions reduction cooperation. At the same time, I look forward to seeing active engagement from South Korean enterprises possessing green technologies, in close collaboration with the Vietnamese government.”
Encouraging developments
Deputy Minister of Science and Technology Hoang Minh said at a policy dialogue on the sidelines of the P4G 2025 that the active participation and strong cooperation from stakeholders – from the public and private sectors to international organisations – can help materialise Vietnam’s aspiration of an efficient and sustainable innovative startup ecosystem.
“Innovation, creative entrepreneurship and collaboration are key to solving environmental problems, while encouraging the development of a circular economy,” he said.
Vietnam currently has over 4,000 innovative startups, including two unicorns valued at over $1 billion, 11 companies valued at over $100 million, more than 1,400 startup support organisations, 202 co-working spaces, 208 investment funds, and 35 business promotion organisations. Among these, it is estimated that around 200–300 companies focus on green transition, covering areas such as renewable energy, environmental technology, sustainable agriculture, and the circular economy.
According to the Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, hosting the fourth P4G Conference is of great significance to Vietnam. It is aimed to boost its role as a good friend, a reliable partner, and a responsible member of P4G and the international community. Moreover, it is also aimed to reaffirm its commitment to sustainable development, energy transition, and the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. Besides that, it is aimed at contributing to raising awareness of international cooperation and encouraging the role and voice of developing countries in the sector of green growth and sustainable development.
Pham Minh Chinh, Prime Minister
For Vietnam, together with digital transformation, we identify green transition as an objective necessity, a key factor, and a breakthrough driving force to promote rapid growth and sustainable development. This aligns with the strategic goal of becoming a developing country with modern industry and upper-middle income by 2030, and a developed, high-income country by 2045, while also contributing to the gradual realisation of Vietnam’s commitment at COP26 to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. From practical experience with initial positive results, especially in renewable energy, green agricultural development, and participation in multilateral mechanisms and initiatives on green transformation, as the host of the fourth P4G Summit, Vietnam has three suggestions for discussions which pave the way for further cooperation in the coming time. First is to perfect green mindset, with a focus placed on the development of science and technology, innovation, and digital transformation linked to green growth. This includes recognising that green resources stem from green thinking, green growth is driven by green transition, and green resources arises from the green awareness of people and businesses in nations and regions throughout the world. Second is to build a responsible green community, in which, the government plays a guiding role, encouraging, and ensuring a stable and favourable institutional environment for green growth. The private sector functions as a core investor into technological development and the dissemination of green standards. The scientific community take the lead in developing green technologies and training green human resources. Meanwhile, citizens continuously enhance their green awareness, truly becoming beneficiaries of the outcomes of green transformation. Thirdly, it is necessary to promote international cooperation and robust multilateral green cooperation models, particularly public-private partnerships, South-South cooperation, North-South cooperation, and multilateral cooperation frameworks. This is aimed at removing institutional barriers, enhancing access, and speeding up the flow of green capital, green technology, and green governance. Developed countries should take the lead in fulfilling commitments to provide financial, technological, and institutional reform support. Meanwhile, developing countries would need to leverage their internal strengths and effectively utilise external resources. |
Investing
Public-private partnerships a lever for greener innovation
Published
3 weeks agoon
April 26, 2025Public-private partnerships are no longer a supporting mechanism, but a strategic pillar in the global pursuit of the green transition.
The high-level dialogue between government leaders and businesses at the 2025 P4G Vietnam Summit last week, chaired by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, brought together senior officials, global experts, international organisations, and private sector leaders.
They recognised that the climate crisis, digital transformation, and resource depletion are converging in ways that demand not only innovation, but deep and long-term collaboration between the public and private sectors.
UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed acknowledged Vietnam’s leadership in renewable energy, noting its potential to attract trillions in sustainable investment.
“Emerging economies must accelerate the adoption of new investment models, particularly those that align private capital with green infrastructure priorities. Governments must work with the private sector to expand ambition, strengthen accountability, and deliver real impact,” she said.
From Italy, Prime Minister’s Climate Envoy Francesco Corvaro stressed that public-private partnerships (PPPs) are indispensable in addressing climate finance gaps. Drawing from Italy’s experience, he underscored the importance of public investment as a risk mitigator, enabling private sector participation in clean energy and smart infrastructure projects.
“Public investment can unlock private capital, but local authorities must lead with clear priorities and long-term vision,” Corvaro noted. “You can’t talk about renewables, AI, or digital infrastructure without modern, resilient grids, and that requires strong public-private alignment.” he said
Alejandro Dorado, Spain’s High Commissioner for Circular Economy, argued that the case for stronger PPPs lies at the intersection of two accelerating forces: the environmental-climate crisis and a wave of disruptive technologies.
“In a world where AI, green technologies, and digitalisation are reshaping the global economy, the clock is ticking. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we have less than a decade to prevent irreversible climate disaster. Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum has identified biodiversity loss as one of the most severe economic risks,” he said.
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Dorado added that while multilateralism is being questioned or weakened in some quarters, the need for cooperation has never been more urgent – both to solve environmental challenges and to harness the transformative potential of innovation.
“No government or business can tackle these crises alone. Public authorities must provide the regulatory frameworks, fiscal incentives, and infrastructure deployment needed at scale to safeguard the common good,” he stressed.
From the business side, Stuart Livesey, country representative of Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), provided a frank but optimistic outlook. Livesey stated CIP’s commitment to supporting Vietnam’s transition, but emphasised the need for enabling conditions.
“What we seek are clear, bankable projects underpinned by stable regulatory frameworks, collaborating with strong local partnerships. This is where public-private cooperation becomes not just helpful, but essential,” Livesey noted. “Over the next 10-15 years, the offshore wind sector and green energy consumers will trigger massive demand for new technologies, digital solutions, and skilled labour.”
To meet this demand, CIP is investing not only in infrastructure, but also in capacity building, research and development, and local supply chain development through partnerships with Vietnamese universities.
Still, he acknowledged barriers. “Technological application and innovation in green projects face challenges, from long-term financing constraints and skilled labour shortages to fragmented policy signals. These are not unique to Vietnam, but they require proactive, tailored local solutions,” he said. “Addressing issues such as grid availability, regulatory clarity, and inter-ministerial coordination will be critical.”
Tim Evans, CEO of HSBC Vietnam, stated that the banking sector is ready to facilitate green finance, particularly in sectors aligned with national climate targets.
“We see ourselves as a bridge between global capital and local sustainability goals. The clearer the pipeline of bankable, climate-aligned projects, the faster we can move capital,” he noted. “What’s crucial now is consistency in policy and coordination among stakeholders to ensure these projects reach maturity.”

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