Asia and the Pacific’s economic growth will remain steady this year and next, but expected U.S. policy changes under the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump are likely to affect the region’s longer-term outlook, write Asian Development Bank (ADB) analysts in the latest edition of Asian Development Outlook (ADO).
Logo of Asian Development Bank (ADB). Photo courtesy of the bank.
Changes to U.S. trade, fiscal, and immigration policies could dent growth and add to inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific.
Because these significant policy changes are expected to take time and be rolled out gradually, the effects on the region would most likely materialize from 2026. Impacts could be seen sooner if the policies are implemented earlier and more rapidly than expected, or if U.S.-based companies front-load imports to avoid potential tariffs.
Developing Asia and the Pacific’s economies are projected to grow by 4.9% in 2024, slightly below ADB’s September forecast of 5%. Next year’s growth projection is lowered to 4.8% from 4.9%, mainly due to weaker prospects for domestic demand in South Asia.
The region’s inflation outlook has been trimmed to 2.7% from 2.8% for this year, and cut to 2.6% from 2.9% next year, partly due to an expected moderation in oil prices.
“Strong overall domestic demand and exports continue to drive economic expansion in our region,” said ADB chief economist Albert Park. “However, the policies expected to be implemented by the new U.S. administration could slow growth and boost inflation to some extent in China, most likely after next year, also impacting other economies in Asia and the Pacific.”
Under a high-risk scenario, ADB projects that aggressive U.S. policy changes could erode global economic growth slightly over the next four years, by a cumulative 0.5 percentage points.
Broad-based tariffs are likely to dent international trade and investment, while leading to a shift toward more costly domestic production. At the same time, reduced immigration could tighten the U.S. labor supply. Combined with a potentially more expansionary fiscal stance under the incoming Trump administration, tariffs and migration curbs could rekindle inflationary pressures in the U.S.
Despite the scale of the assumed U.S. policy changes, particularly on tariffs, the impacts on developing Asia and the Pacific are limited under this high-risk scenario. Even in the absence of additional policy support, GDP growth in China could slow by an average of only 0.3 percentage points per year through 2028.
Negative spillover effects across the region, via trade and other links, would likely be offset by diversion of trade and relocation of production from China to other economies.
In the near term, the outlook for most economies in the region remains relatively stable. The growth forecast for China is unchanged at 4.8% this year and 4.5% next year. India’s outlook is adjusted downward from 7% to 6.5% for this year, and from 7.2% to 7% next year, due to lower-than-expected growth in private investment and housing demand.
Southeast Asia’s growth outlook has been raised to 4.7% this year from a previous forecast of 4.5%, driven by stronger manufacturing exports and public capital spending. The forecast for next year is unchanged at 4.7%.
Vietnam’s growth forecast for 2024 is revised upward to 6.4% from 6% and for 2025 to 6.6% from 6.2%. Strong trade performance, a resurgence in export-led manufacturing, and ongoing fiscal stimulus measures drove Vietnam’s economic growth to 6.8% for the first three quarters of 2024.
The robust rebound in export-led manufacturing and trade, bolstered by the resilient U.S. economy, is expected to continue supporting GDP growth. Accelerated public investment and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies are anticipated to further stimulate domestic demand. Despite the severe impacts caused by typhoon Yagi in various parts of the country, the swift government response and recovery efforts limited the impacts on growth.
Accelerated public investment and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies are needed to further stimulate domestic demand amid increasing external headwinds.
The growth outlook for Caucasus and Central Asia has been raised to 4.9% this year from 4.7%, and to 5.3% next year from 5.2%, while projections for the Pacific are unchanged at 3.4% this year and 4.1% next year.
Apart from uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy changes, risks to developing Asia and the Pacific’s growth and inflation outlooks include escalations of geopolitical tensions as well as continued property market fragility in China.
ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 69 members – 49 from the region.
The commitment of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) to supporting firms in their development was evidenced at a conference on technology’s role in applying sustainability practices that took place in Ho Chi Minh City on March 12.
The event presented key topics including international standards and technological solutions for carbon emissions’ management, environmental, social, and governance policy evaluation based on global standards, and the application of technology in optimising operational costs.
ACCA event highlights technology’s role in sustainability practices
The conference served as a platform for future-oriented businesses to share their successes and challenges while fostering collaboration among those committed to sustainability.
During the conference, Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia, delivered in-depth insights into ACCA’s role in supporting businesses in building sustainable development capabilities.
Citing 2024 trade figures, Varma noted that Vietnam’s import-export turnover maintained unprecedented levels over the past 40 years, supported by the enforcement of over 17 trade agreements.
Vietnam-EU trade exceeded $67 billion, with numerous domestic enterprises integrating into European and global supply chains.
“Implementing sustainability reporting is imperative for Vietnamese firms participating in global supply chains to comply with Europe’s mandatory sustainability disclosure regulations. The key challenge is how businesses can effectively implement sustainability reporting with existing resources while meeting international standards,” said Varma.
Ren Varma, head of Mainland Southeast Asia, ACCA. Photo: ACCA Vietnam
Representatives from various other organisations, such as VACPA, FPT, Unilever, HDBank, PwC, and the University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City shared their experiences in leveraging technology for sustainability.
These real-world case studies enabled participants to gain practical insights into how best to apply technology to sustainable management, while understanding the essential competencies required for effective implementation.
At the event, experts reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing capabilities and professional expertise in achieving national sustainable development goals and the target of Net-Zero by 2050.
Photo: ACCA Vietnam
ACCA pledged its continued support by launching the Professional Diploma in Sustainability (ProDipSust) across more than 180 countries, including Vietnam. This initiative aims to equip professionals with the necessary expertise to implement sustainable business practices.
ProDipSust not only provides in-depth knowledge on sustainability but also guides businesses on practical applications, from understanding international frameworks and regulations to strategic management, sustainability reporting, and assurance.
Recognised as a globally standardised knowledge framework, this diploma plays a crucial role in strengthening corporate sustainability governance, ensuring transparency, and complying with international standards.
Beyond offering training programmes, ACCA actively collaborates with leading organisations to drive sustainable development initiatives.
Beyond offering training activities, ACCA collaborates with major organisations to drive sustainability initiatives. In this seminar, ACCA Vietnam, in partnership with VACPA and PwC Vietnam, established a highly practical forum to help Vietnamese firms align with international standards and devise effective sustainability strategies.
Ren Varma underscored the critical role of finance and accounting professionals in advancing sustainable development, saying, “Financial expertise is not just about financial reporting, it plays a fundamental role in shaping sustainable strategies. Finance professionals are responsible for integrating sustainability initiatives into business models, accurately measuring their impact, and transparently communicating them to stakeholders. ACCA’s certification serves as a vital tool for businesses and individuals to enhance their expertise in this field.”
“With a strong commitment to fostering sustainability competencies, ACCA will continue to support businesses and financial professionals on their journey towards a responsible and sustainable economy,” he added.
Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.
Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.
Photo: Le Toan
Talking with VIR on March 4, Doan Manh Thang, director of water and resilience at Royal HaskoningDHV Vietnam, said the Saigon River has great potential but has not been exploited properly. The plan will map out a waterway from Cu Chi to the city centre.
Royal HaskoningDHV is the leader of a consortium that includes Boston Consulting Group, Roland Berger, the Ministry of Construction, and ACUD Consult that has been tasked with developing this plan which was approved by the prime minister on December 31, 2024.
The plan aims to develop Ho Chi Minh City into a hub of high-quality human resources, modern services, and advanced industries, pioneering in the green economy, the digital economy, and a digital society. It will also maintain its position as Vietnam’s leading centre for economy, finance, commerce, culture, education, and science and technology, with deep international integration.
“We can build service areas such as marinas and commercial centres along the river, alongside green spaces,” Thang said.
Moreover, a metro line from the city centre to Can Gio Island could act as the driving force for the city to reach double-digit growth, he confirmed.
Can Gio Port, meanwhile, is strategically located opposite Cai Mep-Thi Vai Port – the largest international port in Vietnam. However, it is only operating at 50 per cent capacity. The government has decided to upgrade Can Gio Port to become an international transit centre, with an estimated investment of $4 billion. The port is expected to handle 10 per cent of Vietnam’s imports and exports, of which 90 per cent will be international transshipment.
According to Phan Van Mai, newly appointed Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee and former Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, the city will strive for regional GDP growth of 8.5-9.0 per year until 2030.
“To effectively implement the plan, the city needs to mobilise resources, attract investment, develop human resources, and apply science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and environmental protection,” Mai said.
Meanwhile, Thang said that the biggest bottleneck in implementing this plan is the lack of mechanisms to entice capital.
“Public investment is the seed capital to stimulate investment from other economic sectors. In fact, many investors are interested, but the mechanisms for investment must be more detailed,” he said.
A resolution issued in June 2023 grants special mechanisms for the development of Ho Chi Minh City. Meanwhile, in February 2025, the National Assembly issued another resolution for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City to invest and develop metro systems. On that basis, Ho Chi Minh City will invest simultaneously and complete seven routes with a total length of 355km within 10 years.
“Initially, the state will have to spend money because it will be difficult to attract investment, but when it starts to take shape, private investors will be looking to spend money to build infrastructure. This would remove the bottleneck, but still requires appropriate policies,” Thang said.
Thu Thiem New Urban Area on the Saigon River has been allocated as the site for Vietnam’s first International Financial Centre.
Thu Thiem New Urban Area – the new financial and economic hub of Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Le Toan
In total, 11 plots covering 9.2 hectares in the Number 1 Functional Area will be used for the project in Thu Duc city.
The location was reported to the local Department of Telecommunications on March 11 to set up a plan to develop telecommunications and digital infrastructure for the centre.
Thu Thiem New Urban Area was approved in 1996 covering 930 hectares on the east bank of the Saigon River and opposite District 1. When completed, the area will have a population of 200,000 people.
The area will be divided into a central core, a northern residential area, a residential area along Mai Chi Tho Avenue, an eastern residential area, and a southern zone.
On January 4, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired a conference to announce an action plan to implement a regional and international financial centre in Ho Chi Minh City.
At the conference, PM Chinh said that Ho Chi Minh City is located at the head of Southeast Asia, making it convenient for trade and financial connections with major markets such as China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN. Building a financial centre there will help reduce costs and transaction times for traders.
To accelerate the project, early this year, Ho Chi Minh City established a steering committee for the construction and development of the centre with 29 members. The establishment of the international financial centre is expected to create a foundation for the future growth of Ho Chi Minh City. This is also an opportunity for the city to attract international investors and increase foreign investment in various sectors.