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UOB maintains positive outlook for Vietnam but risks lie ahead

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The United Overseas Bank (UOB) has maintained its full-year growth forecast for Vietnam at 7 per cent in 2025, assuming first quarter growth of 7.1 per cent.

Positive momentum of the economy to continue but with risks ahead

For 2026, the bank anticipates the expansion pace to step up to 7.4 per cent, benefitting from the government’s efficiency drive.

With surprisingly strong performances in three straight quarters, Vietnam’s economy expanded 7.09 per cent in 2024 from 5.1 per cent in 2023, beating the consensus call of 6.7 per cent and official target of 6.5 per cent. This was the best showing since the post-COVID rebound in 2022 (8.1 per cent).

The manufacturing and services sectors were the main drivers of activities in the last quarter of 2024, while external trade maintained a strong pace through most of 2024. The upswing in semiconductor sales since mid-2023 also boosted exports.

Export activities expanded for the 10th month in 2024, registering a full-year gain of 14 per cent, and reversing the 4.6 per cent contraction in 2023. Imports rose 16.1 per cent in 2024 to deliver Vietnam’s second-largest trade surplus of about $23.9 billion, following the record high of $28.4 billion in 2023. This is the ninth consecutive year that Vietnam has registered an annual trade surplus, which will be helpful in anchoring the VND exchange rate, UOB affirmed in the report released on March 12.

Vietnam’s heavy dependence on international trade is reflected in the roller coaster ride of economic growth over the 2023-2024 period, when falling exports in 2023 caused a significant slowdown to the headline GDP. The boom in exports in 2024 resulted in its strongest economic performance since 2022. Vietnam’s export value was about 90 per cent of GDP in 2024, the second highest in ASEAN after Singapore’s 174 per cent and ahead of third-placed Malaysia’s 69 per cent.

This high degree of openness means that Vietnam is vulnerable to disruptions and frictions in international trade, especially with US President Trump’s focus on trade imbalances. Overall, the US trade deficit with ASEAN nearly tripled to $228 billion in the same period as global trade flows and supply chain shifts accelerated in response to trade restrictions implemented in the Trump 1.0 era.

Vietnam’s National Assembly has raised the country’s 2025 growth target to at least 8 per cent and is targeting double-digit growth from 2026-2030, but most forecasts remain at 6.5-7 per cent. “While 8 per cent or higher growth rate is possible, exports and manufacturing will not be sufficient to drive this outperformance,” the UOB asserted.

Additional capital expenditure, particularly from public investment, will be needed to stretch further as well as to buffer against any potential downturns in trade. Vietnam’s capital investment ratio has stayed around 30 per cent of GDP at least over the past decade. In contrast, China’s gross capital formation has stayed consistently above 40 per cent in the same period. This suggests that Vietnam has been underinvesting relative to its large neighbour and there is certainly a case for higher public investment, particularly with the government aiming for double-digit growth.

“Taking into account the above factors, we remain cautiously positive about Vietnam’s outlook,” UOB reported.

With economic growth staying robust in 2024 and into 2025 and the US Fed poised to hold steady, there is less urgency for the central bank to hurry into any policy easing. At the same time, inflation ticked higher to 3.6 per cent in 2024 from 3.26 per cent in 2023, though still below the 4.5 per cent threshold.

However, with the prospects of further trade tensions globally under Trump 2.0 and the accompanying US dollar strength an emerging concern, the SBV is expected to stay alert to downside pressures on the VND. As such, the best course of action currently is for the key refinancing rate to stay at 4.5 per cent, according to the UOB.

The VND weakened to a record low of about 25,600/USD in early Mar after the SBV raised its USD sale prices to banks to 25,698/USD from 25,450/USD, the first increase since last October. From here, the path of resistance is still biased towards further VND weakness due to China’s growth and tariff uncertainties, UOB said.

There is a risk of the US imposing tariffs on Vietnam, owning to the latter’s sizeable and growing trade surplus with the US. Potential tailwinds to offset VND depreciation pressures include a strong domestic growth outlook and the SBV’s pledge to ensure a stable exchange rate.

Overall, the UOB’s updated USD/VND forecasts are 25,800 in 2Q25, 26,000 in 3Q25, 25,800 in 4Q25, and 25,600 in 1Q26.

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VPBank builds digital branchless bank to serve millions of customers

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To realise the dream of developing comprehensive AI, a single organisation is not enough, but it is vital to create a seamless and strong digital ecosystem with thorough investment, according to Bui Hai Quan, vice chairman of the Board of Directors at VPBank, at the AI-Semiconductor Conference (AISC 2025) in Hanoi on March 12.

For the first time, an international conference on AI and semiconductors was held in Vietnam with global names like Google, Nvidia, IBM, Meta, Intel, TSMC, Samsung, MediaTek, Tokyo Electron, and Panasonic, among others

The conference was attended by large enterprises such as VPBank, FPT Corporation, IBM, and VNPT, gathering more than 1,000 influential leaders and experts. AISC 2025 focused on discussions about new technology trends in AI and semiconductors, best practices from large organisations, and cross-border business opportunities.

At the conference, VPBank’s leader delivered a keynote speech sharing the experience of a Vietnamese bank in developing AI applications.

VPBank builds digital branchless bank to serve millions of customers
Bui Hai Quan, vice chairman of the Board of Directors at VPBank, shared the trends of adopting technologies in the finance and banking sector

According to Quan, banks in the future will be intelligent, proactive, and highly personalised to enhance efficiency, security, and customer engagement. AI-based financial ecosystems not only predict customer needs but also encourage financial inclusion, improve risk management, and build deeper customer relationships.

“Recognising the role of technology and AI early, VPBank has opted for mastering technology, not merely following the market,” Quan said.

VPBank’s strategy focuses on creating a seamless digital ecosystem that connects various member companies across banking, consumer finance, securities, digital insurance, and some other multiservice platforms. All member companies are technology-centric.

Cake by VPBank is a typical example of a digital bank without brick-and-mortar branches. Launched in 2021, Cake by VPBank serves five million customers with only 250 employees, processing 700,000 credit applications monthly.

The company’s success lies in the adoption of technologies, especially AI, since its inception. Cake uses over 20 score models to evaluate customer behaviour. They are also the first digital bank in Vietnam to have developed its own large language model (chatbot). In February 2025, Cake was ranked among the ‘World’s Top 100 Digital Banks’ for 2025 and honoured as ‘Best Digital Bank in Vietnam’ by The Asian Banker Global.

With a clear and consistent strategy, VPBank also made great strides in other digital initiatives, making a positive contribution to the ecosystem. VPBank NEO boasts over 10 million users and handles 600 million transactions annually.

OPES, a digital insurer in the non-life sector, posted a revenue of $102 million in 2024 with only 110 employees. Be has transformed a ride-hailing app into a leading superapp fully operated by Vietnamese, serving 12 million users with tens of millions of transactions monthly.

According to VPBank’s representative, the bank clearly defines its strategic vision of becoming a bridge to Vietnam’s deep integration into the world through powerful digital platforms. The bank will bring the most advanced technologies to Vietnam while introducing Vietnam’s technology capacity and innovation to the world.

Sharing the opportunities in a new era, Christopher Nguyen, founder of Aitomatic and co-organiser of AISC 2025, stressed that Vietnam was facing a “once-in-4,000-years” opportunity to develop AI and semiconductors.

VPBank builds digital branchless bank to serve millions of customers
Christopher Nguyen, founder of Aitomatic

Christopher Nguyen said, “The Vietnamese government’s efforts to encourage AI and semiconductor development demonstrate the right direction, aligned with a global technology value chain shift.”

“The combination of national vision and international investment needs from developed economies such as the US, Japan, and South Korea has opened up important opportunities for the development of the AI and semiconductor industries in Vietnam,” he added.

Vu Quoc Huy, director of the National Innovation Centre (NIC), said, “With the aspiration to transform Vietnam into a base for global technology development, the government is making efforts to encourage innovation and develop the high-tech industry, especially AI and semiconductors.”

“In the semiconductor industry, the government has set a goal to develop a high-quality workforce by 2030 in collaboration with global partners, institutes, and schools to nurture talent. As for AI, NIC is working with partners to develop open-source software, expected to be announced on March 14.”

“We hope international partners continue to explore opportunities in Vietnam while creating the most favourable conditions for development. AISC 2025 lays an important foundation for exchanges and shapes the future of the semiconductor industry.”

The opening session of AISC 2025 also offered academic perspectives on the intersection of AI and semiconductor technology from scientists.

Anna Goldie from Google DeepMind spoke about AlphaChip – a revolutionary advancement in AI-driven microchip design by Google. Pioneering researchers from Stanford University and the University of Warwick presented cutting-edge studies on AI-applied IC design, scaling semiconductor production, and the potential of Large Language Models in specialised fields.

At the end of the session, for the first time in Vietnam, participating companies took part in the Startup Pavilion – an international ‘Shark Tank’ scheme, where leading investment funds can directly evaluate innovative ideas.

The platform enables domestic technology firms to quickly connect with senior leaders, pitch their projects within a limited timeframe, and secure key agreements during the conference, paving their entry into the global technology market.

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Differences are advantage for New Zealand relations

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In light of the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership early this month, New Zealand and Vietnam stand to enjoy more robust economic relations. Warrick Cleine, chair of the New Zealand Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam, talked with VIR’s Thanh Van about the future prospects of bilateral economic ties.

Could you comment on the important milestone of New Zealand and Vietnam upgrading ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP)?

Differences are advantage for New Zealand relations
Warrick Cleine, chair of the New Zealand Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam

This is a special year for New Zealand and Vietnam, marking 50 years of diplomatic relations, and coming at a time that many of the two countries areas of common interest are under threat.

Prime Ministers Pham Minh Chinh and Chris Luxon shook hands on February 27 on the visit of the latter to Hanoi, confirming the culmination of many years of hard work to realise the CSP.

This is not new for Vietnam. The country has been working hard to build stronger diplomatic and economic relationships with many partners, and the CSP framework has been helpful to differentiate the various relationships. This provides focus for both officials and business leaders in each country, and should over time deliver outsize economic, cultural, political, and social benefits to the two countries.

How does this elevation unlock new opportunities?

On the face of it, New Zealand and Vietnam are very different. Vietnam sits at the heart of Asia, a fast-growing economy of 100 million people, with an ambitious industrial strategy and increasing importance as a manufacturing hub for global exporters.

New Zealand, on the other hand, is a remote western liberal democracy located in the South Pacific, a member of the Commonwealth with just over five million people, and the majority of exports related to primary production in the agricultural, horticultural, and seafood industries.

However, this hides the intense common interest that both countries have as smaller, export trading nations, in preserving and promoting the rules based global trading order, particularly through multilateral organisations such as the World Trade Organization, and through the mutual entry and recognition of free trade agreements.

Vietnam and New Zealand worked hard to maintain momentum for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, signalling common interest in high value and mutually respectful trade relationships. As the new US administration further shakes up the global trade arena, such relationships and common missions take on new and urgent importance.

What is the outlook of economic and business activities between New Zealand and Vietnam under this new arrangement?

It is the differences between the two countries that compel a closer relationship. Vietnamese consumers love the sort of clean, green, and healthy produce that New Zealand is so great at making. This drove New Zealand exports to Vietnam over the $1 billion mark last year, and encouraged over 8,000 Vietnamese to visit New Zealand, despite the costs and challenges of doing so.

New Zealand’s world-class English language education system is also appealing to Vietnamese students, with 1,800 of them currently studying in the country.

On the other hand, Kiwis love buying Vietnamese-made products, validating the countries push to become a manufacturing powerhouse, with over $1.7 billion of exports last year, mostly in electronic goods, footwear, clothing, and machinery.

New Zealanders recognise the value of growing economic, cultural, and social relationships with Asia. According to a recent survey by the Asia New Zealand Foundation, two-thirds of Kiwis see Vietnam as important to New Zealand’s future. The announcement by Vietjet that they will commence four weekly direct flights from Ho Chi Minh City to Auckland from September 2025 will only see this increasing, as more Kiwis and Vietnamese have the opportunity interact with each other.

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Hanoi aims to turn polluted To Lich River into green space

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The Hanoi People’s Committee has also given in-principle approval to a wastewater system project in the West Lake area, with an estimated budget of over 99 billion VND (3.88 million USD) funded by Tay Ho district.

Hanoi aims to turn polluted To Lich River into green space
To Lich River (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi – The People’s Committee of Hanoi has given the greenlight to Sun Group Joint Stock Company’s plan to transform the polluted To Lich River into a green space, creating a landscape and ecological highlight to serve the community.

Relevant units were asked to refine technological solutions for cleaning the riverbed and restoring the river’s bottom. Furthre research will also be conducted to explore ways to use the river as a water storage area during flooding, as part of the broader Capital Drainage Planning.

The municipal People’s Committee has also given in-principle approval to a wastewater system project in the West Lake area, with an estimated budget of over 99 billion VND (3.88 million USD) funded by Tay Ho district.

The project, set to run from 2025 to 2027, will develop a wastewater collection system and pumping stations to connect to the existing West Lake wastewater collection network in two phases. This initiative will lay the groundwork for a fully separate wastewater drainage system for the lake’s surrounding area.

Beyond improving the area’s drainage capacity, the project aims to resolve the issue of wastewater pollution flowing into West Lake, contributing to the restoration and enhancement of the local environment.

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