He requested that the draft report must adopt innovative, breakthrough thinking, methodologies, approaches, and practices, in alignment with the global and regional situations as well as the country’s development requirements; and that the content must be more up-to-date, proposing new breakthroughs and drivers for development.

Politburo member and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi – Politburo member and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, head of the sub-committee for socio-economic affairs of the 14th National Party Congress, chaired the sub-committee’s fourth session to continue supplementing and finalising the draft socio-economic report in Hanoi on March 13.

The PM stated that, compared to the draft report before the Party Central Committee’s 10th session, many contents have been adjusted and updated, such as results of socio-economic development, with more specific and accurate data, growth directions, tasks, and goals, with a target of 8% in 2025 and double digits in the following years, development orientations and tasks focusing on science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and the need to consider the role of the private sector.

He requested that the draft report must adopt innovative, breakthrough thinking, methodologies, approaches, and practices, in alignment with the global and regional situations as well as the country’s development requirements; and that the content must be more up-to-date, proposing new breakthroughs and drivers for development.

Chinh required sub-committee members to discuss and assess the situation accurately, proposing feasible, high-efficiency goals, tasks, and solutions, especially to achieve the two goals set for the country’s 100-year anniversary.

He suggested that they should discuss and reach a consensus on the content, continue to refine the draft socio-economic report to present to the Politburo. After receiving the Politburo’s feedback, the report should be finalised and submitted to the Party Central Committee for presentation at its session in early April.

The United Overseas Bank (UOB) has maintained its full-year growth forecast for Vietnam at 7 per cent in 2025, assuming first quarter growth of 7.1 per cent.

For 2026, the bank anticipates the expansion pace to step up to 7.4 per cent, benefitting from the government’s efficiency drive.

With surprisingly strong performances in three straight quarters, Vietnam’s economy expanded 7.09 per cent in 2024 from 5.1 per cent in 2023, beating the consensus call of 6.7 per cent and official target of 6.5 per cent. This was the best showing since the post-COVID rebound in 2022 (8.1 per cent).

The manufacturing and services sectors were the main drivers of activities in the last quarter of 2024, while external trade maintained a strong pace through most of 2024. The upswing in semiconductor sales since mid-2023 also boosted exports.

Export activities expanded for the 10th month in 2024, registering a full-year gain of 14 per cent, and reversing the 4.6 per cent contraction in 2023. Imports rose 16.1 per cent in 2024 to deliver Vietnam’s second-largest trade surplus of about $23.9 billion, following the record high of $28.4 billion in 2023. This is the ninth consecutive year that Vietnam has registered an annual trade surplus, which will be helpful in anchoring the VND exchange rate, UOB affirmed in the report released on March 12.

Vietnam’s heavy dependence on international trade is reflected in the roller coaster ride of economic growth over the 2023-2024 period, when falling exports in 2023 caused a significant slowdown to the headline GDP. The boom in exports in 2024 resulted in its strongest economic performance since 2022. Vietnam’s export value was about 90 per cent of GDP in 2024, the second highest in ASEAN after Singapore’s 174 per cent and ahead of third-placed Malaysia’s 69 per cent.

This high degree of openness means that Vietnam is vulnerable to disruptions and frictions in international trade, especially with US President Trump’s focus on trade imbalances. Overall, the US trade deficit with ASEAN nearly tripled to $228 billion in the same period as global trade flows and supply chain shifts accelerated in response to trade restrictions implemented in the Trump 1.0 era.

Vietnam’s National Assembly has raised the country’s 2025 growth target to at least 8 per cent and is targeting double-digit growth from 2026-2030, but most forecasts remain at 6.5-7 per cent. “While 8 per cent or higher growth rate is possible, exports and manufacturing will not be sufficient to drive this outperformance,” the UOB asserted.

Additional capital expenditure, particularly from public investment, will be needed to stretch further as well as to buffer against any potential downturns in trade. Vietnam’s capital investment ratio has stayed around 30 per cent of GDP at least over the past decade. In contrast, China’s gross capital formation has stayed consistently above 40 per cent in the same period. This suggests that Vietnam has been underinvesting relative to its large neighbour and there is certainly a case for higher public investment, particularly with the government aiming for double-digit growth.

“Taking into account the above factors, we remain cautiously positive about Vietnam’s outlook,” UOB reported.

With economic growth staying robust in 2024 and into 2025 and the US Fed poised to hold steady, there is less urgency for the central bank to hurry into any policy easing. At the same time, inflation ticked higher to 3.6 per cent in 2024 from 3.26 per cent in 2023, though still below the 4.5 per cent threshold.

However, with the prospects of further trade tensions globally under Trump 2.0 and the accompanying US dollar strength an emerging concern, the SBV is expected to stay alert to downside pressures on the VND. As such, the best course of action currently is for the key refinancing rate to stay at 4.5 per cent, according to the UOB.

The VND weakened to a record low of about 25,600/USD in early Mar after the SBV raised its USD sale prices to banks to 25,698/USD from 25,450/USD, the first increase since last October. From here, the path of resistance is still biased towards further VND weakness due to China’s growth and tariff uncertainties, UOB said.

There is a risk of the US imposing tariffs on Vietnam, owning to the latter’s sizeable and growing trade surplus with the US. Potential tailwinds to offset VND depreciation pressures include a strong domestic growth outlook and the SBV’s pledge to ensure a stable exchange rate.

Overall, the UOB’s updated USD/VND forecasts are 25,800 in 2Q25, 26,000 in 3Q25, 25,800 in 4Q25, and 25,600 in 1Q26.

Vietnam and Singapore reached an agreement on March 12 to develop a legal framework for digital asset management.

Chairwoman of the State Securities Commission (SSC) Vu Thi Chan Phuong and deputy general director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Tuang Lee Lim signed the Letter of Intent.

The signing ceremony was witnessed by Party General Secretary To Lam and Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, while Vietnamese Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang and other leaders of the two countries also attended the ceremony.

Vietnam’s SSC chairwoman Vu Thi Chan Phuong and Singapore’s MAS deputy general director Tuang Lee Lim

Recognising the importance of developing and regulating the digital asset market, the two countries have partnered to combat money laundering and terrorist financing through digital asset transactions, protecting the integrity and stability of the two financial markets.

Specifically, the MAS will help the SSC to build a legal framework for the development and management of the digital asset market in Vietnam. It will also exchange information and experience in anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing in the financial markets of the two countries, thereby enhancing Vietnam’s capacity to monitor the development and trading of digital assets.

Lim said, “Singapore and Vietnam have a long-standing, multidimensional partnership in the capital markets, reinforced through bilateral commitments and cooperation at regional and international forums. The exchange of this Letter of Intent reflects our commitment to help each other protect the integrity and stability of our capital markets, as well as promote cross-border connectivity. The MAS and SSC will learn from each other and build a deeper relationship.”

In response, Phuong said that the Vietnam – Singapore relationship has been upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and that economic, financial, and investment cooperation have become deep and effective. The signing of the letter is a new step forward, an important foundation for the two capital market management agencies to strengthen cooperation and contribute to the integrity of the financial markets of the two countries and the region.

“We believe and expect that this agreement will contribute to the stable, fair, transparent, and sustainable development of the capital and digital asset markets in both countries,” Phuong added.