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US policy changes likely to impact Asia and Pacific growth

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Asia and the Pacific’s economic growth will remain steady this year and next, but expected U.S. policy changes under the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump are likely to affect the region’s longer-term outlook, write Asian Development Bank (ADB) analysts in the latest edition of Asian Development Outlook (ADO).

Logo of Asian Development Bank (ADB). Photo courtesy of the bank.

Logo of Asian Development Bank (ADB). Photo courtesy of the bank.

Changes to U.S. trade, fiscal, and immigration policies could dent growth and add to inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific.

Because these significant policy changes are expected to take time and be rolled out gradually, the effects on the region would most likely materialize from 2026. Impacts could be seen sooner if the policies are implemented earlier and more rapidly than expected, or if U.S.-based companies front-load imports to avoid potential tariffs.

Developing Asia and the Pacific’s economies are projected to grow by 4.9% in 2024, slightly below ADB’s September forecast of 5%. Next year’s growth projection is lowered to 4.8% from 4.9%, mainly due to weaker prospects for domestic demand in South Asia.

The region’s inflation outlook has been trimmed to 2.7% from 2.8% for this year, and cut to 2.6% from 2.9% next year, partly due to an expected moderation in oil prices.

“Strong overall domestic demand and exports continue to drive economic expansion in our region,” said ADB chief economist Albert Park. “However, the policies expected to be implemented by the new U.S. administration could slow growth and boost inflation to some extent in China, most likely after next year, also impacting other economies in Asia and the Pacific.”

Under a high-risk scenario, ADB projects that aggressive U.S. policy changes could erode global economic growth slightly over the next four years, by a cumulative 0.5 percentage points.

Broad-based tariffs are likely to dent international trade and investment, while leading to a shift toward more costly domestic production. At the same time, reduced immigration could tighten the U.S. labor supply. Combined with a potentially more expansionary fiscal stance under the incoming Trump administration, tariffs and migration curbs could rekindle inflationary pressures in the U.S.

Despite the scale of the assumed U.S. policy changes, particularly on tariffs, the impacts on developing Asia and the Pacific are limited under this high-risk scenario. Even in the absence of additional policy support, GDP growth in China could slow by an average of only 0.3 percentage points per year through 2028.

Negative spillover effects across the region, via trade and other links, would likely be offset by diversion of trade and relocation of production from China to other economies.

In the near term, the outlook for most economies in the region remains relatively stable. The growth forecast for China is unchanged at 4.8% this year and 4.5% next year. India’s outlook is adjusted downward from 7% to 6.5% for this year, and from 7.2% to 7% next year, due to lower-than-expected growth in private investment and housing demand.

Southeast Asia’s growth outlook has been raised to 4.7% this year from a previous forecast of 4.5%, driven by stronger manufacturing exports and public capital spending. The forecast for next year is unchanged at 4.7%.

Vietnam’s growth forecast for 2024 is revised upward to 6.4% from 6% and for 2025 to 6.6% from 6.2%. Strong trade performance, a resurgence in export-led manufacturing, and ongoing fiscal stimulus measures drove Vietnam’s economic growth to 6.8% for the first three quarters of 2024.

The robust rebound in export-led manufacturing and trade, bolstered by the resilient U.S. economy, is expected to continue supporting GDP growth. Accelerated public investment and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies are anticipated to further stimulate domestic demand. Despite the severe impacts caused by typhoon Yagi in various parts of the country, the swift government response and recovery efforts limited the impacts on growth.

Accelerated public investment and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies are needed to further stimulate domestic demand amid increasing external headwinds.

The growth outlook for Caucasus and Central Asia has been raised to 4.9% this year from 4.7%, and to 5.3% next year from 5.2%, while projections for the Pacific are unchanged at 3.4% this year and 4.1% next year.

Apart from uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy changes, risks to developing Asia and the Pacific’s growth and inflation outlooks include escalations of geopolitical tensions as well as continued property market fragility in China.

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 69 members – 49 from the region.

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Hanoi aims to turn polluted To Lich River into green space

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The Hanoi People’s Committee has also given in-principle approval to a wastewater system project in the West Lake area, with an estimated budget of over 99 billion VND (3.88 million USD) funded by Tay Ho district.

Hanoi aims to turn polluted To Lich River into green space
To Lich River (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi – The People’s Committee of Hanoi has given the greenlight to Sun Group Joint Stock Company’s plan to transform the polluted To Lich River into a green space, creating a landscape and ecological highlight to serve the community.

Relevant units were asked to refine technological solutions for cleaning the riverbed and restoring the river’s bottom. Furthre research will also be conducted to explore ways to use the river as a water storage area during flooding, as part of the broader Capital Drainage Planning.

The municipal People’s Committee has also given in-principle approval to a wastewater system project in the West Lake area, with an estimated budget of over 99 billion VND (3.88 million USD) funded by Tay Ho district.

The project, set to run from 2025 to 2027, will develop a wastewater collection system and pumping stations to connect to the existing West Lake wastewater collection network in two phases. This initiative will lay the groundwork for a fully separate wastewater drainage system for the lake’s surrounding area.

Beyond improving the area’s drainage capacity, the project aims to resolve the issue of wastewater pollution flowing into West Lake, contributing to the restoration and enhancement of the local environment.

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PM chairs meeting of 14th National Party Congress’s sub-committee for socio-economic affairs

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He requested that the draft report must adopt innovative, breakthrough thinking, methodologies, approaches, and practices, in alignment with the global and regional situations as well as the country’s development requirements; and that the content must be more up-to-date, proposing new breakthroughs and drivers for development.

PM chairs meeting of 14th National Party Congress’s sub-committee for socio-economic affairs
Politburo member and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi – Politburo member and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, head of the sub-committee for socio-economic affairs of the 14th National Party Congress, chaired the sub-committee’s fourth session to continue supplementing and finalising the draft socio-economic report in Hanoi on March 13.

The PM stated that, compared to the draft report before the Party Central Committee’s 10th session, many contents have been adjusted and updated, such as results of socio-economic development, with more specific and accurate data, growth directions, tasks, and goals, with a target of 8% in 2025 and double digits in the following years, development orientations and tasks focusing on science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and the need to consider the role of the private sector.

He requested that the draft report must adopt innovative, breakthrough thinking, methodologies, approaches, and practices, in alignment with the global and regional situations as well as the country’s development requirements; and that the content must be more up-to-date, proposing new breakthroughs and drivers for development.

Chinh required sub-committee members to discuss and assess the situation accurately, proposing feasible, high-efficiency goals, tasks, and solutions, especially to achieve the two goals set for the country’s 100-year anniversary.

He suggested that they should discuss and reach a consensus on the content, continue to refine the draft socio-economic report to present to the Politburo. After receiving the Politburo’s feedback, the report should be finalised and submitted to the Party Central Committee for presentation at its session in early April.

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ASEAN compelled to become microchip hub

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A call has been made for ASEAN member states to develop the region into a vast semiconductor hub, leveraging their strengths in manufacturing chips.

ASEAN compelled to become microchip hub
Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, and others all boast stronger policies for chip-related manufacturing, photo Le Toan

During the ASEAN Future Forum 2025 held in Hanoi late last month, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar bin Ibrahim stated that member states need to cement cooperation in manufacturing semiconductors to turn Southeast Asia into a major hub for such products.

“Malaysia is leading the region in semiconductor manufacturing and the country’s leaders fully support the development of this industry,” PM Ibrahim told Vietnamese counterpart Pham Minh Chinh.

Malaysia began to develop semiconductor products about 20 years ago, with the participation of high-tech investors from the US, China, South Korea, and Japan. This success needs to be shared among other ASEAN nations, according to PM Ibrahim.

Malaysia is the world’s sixth-largest exporter of semiconductors, accounting for 13 per cent of the global assembly, testing and packaging market. It aims to lure in $115 billion worth of investments by 2030.

Last week, British chip company Arm Holdings inked a deal with Malaysia to bolster its efforts to produce high-end semiconductors. The deal will see Softbank-owned Arm provide chip designs and other technology, helping Malaysia to move into more value-added production such as wafer fabrication and integrated circuit design. Malaysia reported to be paying $250 million over a decade to receive support from Arm Holdings.

Malaysia’s national semiconductor strategy aims to invest over $100 billion in advanced technologies. In May 2024, the Malaysian government committed to invest at least $5.6 billion in the semiconductor industry, with the goal of being self-sufficient in chip manufacturing within the next 5–10 years.

“Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand also want to develop semiconductors, so all of us need to stay united and boost cooperation in this industry. Malaysia stands ready to support Vietnam in this endeavour,” PM Ibrahim said.

The global semiconductor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with ASEAN emerging as a prominent player. Geopolitical tensions have opened opportunities for the region, with key contributors like Singapore and Malaysia leading the way.

ASEAN, in its effort to diversify the global supply chain, has recorded impressive growth. Total semiconductor exports from the region reached $268.8 billion in 2023, accounting for almost one-quarter of the global market. A 41.6 per cent increase in exports from 2018 to 2023 underscores the industry’s growth in this area.

Vietnam’s semiconductor industry is led by strategic government policies, raising foreign investment, and a growing demand for chips in various industries. With a projected market value of $31.28 billion by 2027 and a compound annual growth rate of 11.6 per cent from 2023 to 2027, Vietnam is steadily positioning itself as a key player in the global semiconductor supply chain, according to Dezan Shira & Associates.

After Vietnam and the US forged a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2023, the former’s semiconductor industry has been beefed up, with larger participation from global semiconductor giants such as Intel, OnSemi, Hana Micron, and Amkor. They are particularly found in outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) facilities in the northern region, and research and development centres in the south.

Under Vietnam’s semiconductor strategy towards 2030, with a vision extending to 2050, the country will centre on talent development, manufacturing capacity, and global integration. According to the strategy, the country will establish at least 100 design companies, one small-scale manufacturing facility, and 10 packaging and testing plants, with annual revenue in the semiconductor industry of $25 billion, all by the end of this decade.

Those revenues will aimed to be doubled by 2024 and, from there to mid-century doubled again to $100 billion, with Vietnam seeking to boast 300 design companies, three fabrication plants, and 20 OSAT plants.

However, experts said a lack of high-quality personnel, underdeveloped infrastructure, and administrative hurdles need to be addressed.

Other ASEAN countries, such as Indonesia and Singapore, are also ramping up efforts.

Singapore is expanding its wafer fabrication zones and enhancing business support services. According to Singapore’s Economic Development Board, over the past decades, Singapore has become a semiconductor powerhouse, holding 10 per cent of the global chip production and about a fifth of the world’s chip-making gear.

Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in his budget speech late last month said that Singapore has attracted global AI and quantum computing firms. He pledged to spend around SGD1 billion ($747 million) on a new chip research facility.

Singapore already houses plants for blue-chip US manufacturers including memory chip specialist Micron, outsource manufacturer GlobalFoundries and fabrication-equipment supplier Applied Materials.

Meanwhile, Indonesia, with its abundant raw materials, is developing a supply chain from raw material extraction to production. This regional competition not only elevates ASEAN’s position in the global semiconductor market but also fosters collaboration to create an integrated value chain.

“To strongly develop the semiconductor industry successfully, we need to pay special attention to training high-quality personnel,” Malaysian PM Ibrahim said.

Vietnam is aiming to train 50,000 skilled engineers for the industry by 2030 and about 100,000 by 2040.

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