Connect with us

Investing

US-China trade tensions and Asia’s “decoupling” opportunity: HSBC exec

Published

on

Donald Trump’s inclination to reduce America’s imports may also inadvertently provide the impetus for Asia to update its growth model, which has historically relied heavily on exporting to the U.S. market, writes Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC.

Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. Photo courtesy of the bank.

Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. Photo courtesy of the bank.

It appears that the only certainty regarding global trade nowadays is massive uncertainty.

While Trump recently announced a 30-day delay to sweeping 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, China still finds itself on the receiving end of a 10% tariff imposition, which led it to retaliate with narrowly focused tariffs and export restrictions against the U.S.

Looking further ahead, how will China approach its trade and economic relations with the U.S. under a second Trump presidency?

Drawing on Japan’s experience during the 1980s, a case study that Chinese policymakers famously study over closely, we anticipate that China will replace some direct exports to the U.S. with more overseas investment, deepen trade with emerging economies, cement its centrality in global supply chains through component exports and high-tech manufacturing, avoid major currency realignment, and gain a prime opportunity to roll out more forceful stimulus measures and structural reforms.

ASEAN stands to benefit enormously from these trends. The region has already surpassed the U.S. and EU as China’s top export destination and has seen its own production capabilities improve – in industries ranging from electric vehicles to consumer electronics – with the support of Chinese investment.

Trump’s inclination to reduce America’s imports may also inadvertently provide the impetus for Asia to update its growth model, which has historically relied heavily on exporting to the U.S. market. “Decoupling” would not entail a wholesale retreat from trade, or even turning away from the US as an important trade partner, but rather offers an opportunity for Asia to charge up new growth engines.

There are two main pillars to Asia’s internally focused growth strategy.

First, the region must resolve the imbalance between its savings and investments. While thriftiness is a virtue, high savings can hurt growth when it perennially exceeds what can be profitably invested.

Although raising investment could offset excess savings, this option could be ineffective if profitable investment opportunities have already been exhausted. Higher investment would also result in more goods being churned out that would eventually need to be absorbed somewhere.

The answer to this problem lies in unleashing domestic consumption. If Asia consumed more, it would become less reliant on overseas demand while also elevating the living standards of its households. Of course, Asia’s households – long accustomed to high savings – will need to be incentivized to consume. Policymakers can help by bolstering incomes and providing stronger social welfare support.

Even if excess savings in some parts of Asia cannot be readily reduced, the region can at least reallocate capital more effectively from high savings economies (mainland China, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Japan) to markets that still require more capital investment (India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Bangladesh).

This is where the second pillar of Asia’s ‘decoupling’ comes into play.

While plenty of supply chains and investment do crisscross across Asian borders, much of this activity is geared towards serving Western markets. By fostering greater regional integration, Asia can expand markets within its own neighbourhood instead of shipping ever more goods to the US or Europe, where trade barriers are rising.

Asia can enhance intra-regional trade and investment by building on agreements such as the regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP), which includes ASEAN and Northeast Asia, and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), comprising eleven economies from Asia and the Americas. Adding South Asia to these trade agreements would mark significant progress towards building stronger regional resilience in the age of ‘decoupling.’

Investing

ACCA event highlights technology’s role in sustainability practices

Published

on

The commitment of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) to supporting firms in their development was evidenced at a conference on technology’s role in applying sustainability practices that took place in Ho Chi Minh City on March 12.

The event presented key topics including international standards and technological solutions for carbon emissions’ management, environmental, social, and governance policy evaluation based on global standards, and the application of technology in optimising operational costs.

ACCA event highlights technology's role in sustainability practices
ACCA event highlights technology’s role in sustainability practices

The conference served as a platform for future-oriented businesses to share their successes and challenges while fostering collaboration among those committed to sustainability.

During the conference, Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia, delivered in-depth insights into ACCA’s role in supporting businesses in building sustainable development capabilities.

Citing 2024 trade figures, Varma noted that Vietnam’s import-export turnover maintained unprecedented levels over the past 40 years, supported by the enforcement of over 17 trade agreements.

Vietnam-EU trade exceeded $67 billion, with numerous domestic enterprises integrating into European and global supply chains.

“Implementing sustainability reporting is imperative for Vietnamese firms participating in global supply chains to comply with Europe’s mandatory sustainability disclosure regulations. The key challenge is how businesses can effectively implement sustainability reporting with existing resources while meeting international standards,” said Varma.

Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia speech at the conference. Photo: ACCA Vietnam
Ren Varma, head of Mainland Southeast Asia, ACCA. Photo: ACCA Vietnam

Representatives from various other organisations, such as VACPA, FPT, Unilever, HDBank, PwC, and the University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City shared their experiences in leveraging technology for sustainability.

These real-world case studies enabled participants to gain practical insights into how best to apply technology to sustainable management, while understanding the essential competencies required for effective implementation.

At the event, experts reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing capabilities and professional expertise in achieving national sustainable development goals and the target of Net-Zero by 2050.

Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia with other speakers at the conference. Photo: ACCA Vietnam
Photo: ACCA Vietnam

ACCA pledged its continued support by launching the Professional Diploma in Sustainability (ProDipSust) across more than 180 countries, including Vietnam. This initiative aims to equip professionals with the necessary expertise to implement sustainable business practices.

ProDipSust not only provides in-depth knowledge on sustainability but also guides businesses on practical applications, from understanding international frameworks and regulations to strategic management, sustainability reporting, and assurance.

Recognised as a globally standardised knowledge framework, this diploma plays a crucial role in strengthening corporate sustainability governance, ensuring transparency, and complying with international standards.

Beyond offering training programmes, ACCA actively collaborates with leading organisations to drive sustainable development initiatives.

Beyond offering training activities, ACCA collaborates with major organisations to drive sustainability initiatives. In this seminar, ACCA Vietnam, in partnership with VACPA and PwC Vietnam, established a highly practical forum to help Vietnamese firms align with international standards and devise effective sustainability strategies.

Ren Varma underscored the critical role of finance and accounting professionals in advancing sustainable development, saying, “Financial expertise is not just about financial reporting, it plays a fundamental role in shaping sustainable strategies. Finance professionals are responsible for integrating sustainability initiatives into business models, accurately measuring their impact, and transparently communicating them to stakeholders. ACCA’s certification serves as a vital tool for businesses and individuals to enhance their expertise in this field.”

“With a strong commitment to fostering sustainability competencies, ACCA will continue to support businesses and financial professionals on their journey towards a responsible and sustainable economy,” he added.

Continue Reading

Investing

Ho Chi Minh City looks to develop potential of Saigon River

Published

on

Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.

Ho Chi Minh City will lead toward the sea and along Saigon river

Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.

Photo: Le Toan

Talking with VIR on March 4, Doan Manh Thang, director of water and resilience at Royal HaskoningDHV Vietnam, said the Saigon River has great potential but has not been exploited properly. The plan will map out a waterway from Cu Chi to the city centre.

Royal HaskoningDHV is the leader of a consortium that includes Boston Consulting Group, Roland Berger, the Ministry of Construction, and ACUD Consult that has been tasked with developing this plan which was approved by the prime minister on December 31, 2024.

The plan aims to develop Ho Chi Minh City into a hub of high-quality human resources, modern services, and advanced industries, pioneering in the green economy, the digital economy, and a digital society. It will also maintain its position as Vietnam’s leading centre for economy, finance, commerce, culture, education, and science and technology, with deep international integration.

“We can build service areas such as marinas and commercial centres along the river, alongside green spaces,” Thang said.

Moreover, a metro line from the city centre to Can Gio Island could act as the driving force for the city to reach double-digit growth, he confirmed.

Can Gio Port, meanwhile, is strategically located opposite Cai Mep-Thi Vai Port – the largest international port in Vietnam. However, it is only operating at 50 per cent capacity. The government has decided to upgrade Can Gio Port to become an international transit centre, with an estimated investment of $4 billion. The port is expected to handle 10 per cent of Vietnam’s imports and exports, of which 90 per cent will be international transshipment.

According to Phan Van Mai, newly appointed Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee and former Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, the city will strive for regional GDP growth of 8.5-9.0 per year until 2030.

“To effectively implement the plan, the city needs to mobilise resources, attract investment, develop human resources, and apply science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and environmental protection,” Mai said.

Meanwhile, Thang said that the biggest bottleneck in implementing this plan is the lack of mechanisms to entice capital.

“Public investment is the seed capital to stimulate investment from other economic sectors. In fact, many investors are interested, but the mechanisms for investment must be more detailed,” he said.

A resolution issued in June 2023 grants special mechanisms for the development of Ho Chi Minh City. Meanwhile, in February 2025, the National Assembly issued another resolution for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City to invest and develop metro systems. On that basis, Ho Chi Minh City will invest simultaneously and complete seven routes with a total length of 355km within 10 years.

“Initially, the state will have to spend money because it will be difficult to attract investment, but when it starts to take shape, private investors will be looking to spend money to build infrastructure. This would remove the bottleneck, but still requires appropriate policies,” Thang said.

Continue Reading

Investing

Ho Chi Minh City International Financial Centre to be built in Thu Thiem New Urban Area

Published

on

Thu Thiem New Urban Area on the Saigon River has been allocated as the site for Vietnam’s first International Financial Centre.

Ho Chi Minh City International Financial Centre to be built in Thu Thiem New Urban Area
Thu Thiem New Urban Area – the new financial and economic hub of Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Le Toan

In total, 11 plots covering 9.2 hectares in the Number 1 Functional Area will be used for the project in Thu Duc city.

The location was reported to the local Department of Telecommunications on March 11 to set up a plan to develop telecommunications and digital infrastructure for the centre.

​​Thu Thiem New Urban Area was approved in 1996 covering 930 hectares on the east bank of the Saigon River and opposite District 1. When completed, the area will have a population of 200,000 people.

The area will be divided into a central core, a northern residential area, a residential area along Mai Chi Tho Avenue, an eastern residential area, and a southern zone.

On January 4, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired a conference to announce an action plan to implement a regional and international financial centre in Ho Chi Minh City.

At the conference, PM Chinh said that Ho Chi Minh City is located at the head of Southeast Asia, making it convenient for trade and financial connections with major markets such as China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN. Building a financial centre there will help reduce costs and transaction times for traders.

To accelerate the project, early this year, Ho Chi Minh City established a steering committee for the construction and development of the centre with 29 members. The establishment of the international financial centre is expected to create a foundation for the future growth of Ho Chi Minh City. This is also an opportunity for the city to attract international investors and increase foreign investment in various sectors.

Continue Reading

Trending