Following the downturn, Vietnam’s merger and acquisition landscape is set to gain momentum in 2025, driven by spearhead industries from technology to manufacturing. Julien Curtet, partner of Index Partners, shared with VIR’s Thanh Van his insights into the overview and the prospect of the market.
How do you see Vietnam’s merger and acquisition (M&A) market affected by global market volatility?
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Julien Curtet, partner of Index Partners |
In 2024, global M&A activity rebounded, reaching approximately $3.5 trillion (a 15 per cent increase from 2023) with around 7,500 deals above $30 million. Corporate acquisitions rose by 12 per cent, and financial investor activity surged by 29 per cent, driven by private equity amid easing interest rates. Key sectors included technology, energy, financial services, and telecom.
Vietnam mirrored global trends with notable M&A activity in technology, energy, and industrial sectors, supported by a resilient macro and rising foreign investment.
In 2024, Vietnam’s M&A market experienced a downturn in transaction value, influenced by global economic uncertainties stemming from geopolitical tensions and currency fluctuations. However, deal volume reached around 160 transactions in the second half of 2024, marking a 25 per cent rise from the first half of 2024 and a 32 per cent jump from the second half of 2023, signalling a strong recovery trend and positive momentum for future growth. Some key deals in the second half of 2024 were Masan’s acquisition of an additional 7.1 per cent stake of VinCommerce from SK Group for $200 million, KIDO’s acquisition of Hung Vuong, Nvidia’s acquisition of VinBrain, and SK Group’s $300 million acquisition of Iscvina Manufacturing.
Mid-cap deals up to $25 million dominated Vietnam’s M&A market, accounting for just over half of total deal volume despite a 28 per cent drop in total transaction value. Mid-size transactions in the second half of the year included ADA’s acquisition of Customore and Elan’s $8.89 million acquisition of TMC Vietnam.
Could you shed light on some key drivers for the Vietnamese market in 2025 and beyond?
In 2025, it is set for strong growth, driven by key sectors such as infrastructure, technology, consumer, and manufacturing. Infrastructure will see a surge in investment, particularly in transportation and logistics, supported by government initiatives.
The technology sector is poised for rapid expansion, fuelled by favourable policies and accelerating digital transformation. Consumer spending is expected to rebound from a low base, signalling a recovery in the consumer sector.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector, which contributed over one-quarter of GDP in 2024, is projected to grow by 10 per cent in output, supported by new industrial zones and increased foreign investment.
The market is set to accelerate in the second half of 2025, fuelled by stable global interest rates and rising investor confidence.
Vietnam’s strong economic momentum, pro-investment policies, and booming sectors like technology, manufacturing, infrastructure, and recovery of consumer will drive deal activity, cementing its status as a key M&A hub in Southeast Asia.
How do foreign dealmakers approach strategies amidst global economic uncertainty, especially tariffs and new US policy?
Foreign dealmakers are reshaping their M&A strategies. Despite the challenges, Vietnam remains a key destination for cross-border investment, driven by its rapidly expanding technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors.
Vietnam is rapidly advancing its technology sector, emerging as a significant player in the global digital landscape. Its commitment to technological innovation is evident through key partnerships, such as the collaboration with Nvidia to establish AI research and data centres in the country.
To further entice high-tech investments, the government offers substantial incentives, including up to four years of tax exemptions and a 50 per cent tax reduction for the subsequent nine years, as well as financial support from national sci-tech development funds.
Additionally, Vietnam’s consumer market is expected to recover in 2025, fuelled by a rising population, and increasing disposable incomes, boosting demand for goods and services. With consumer confidence rebounding and spending accelerating across sectors, Vietnam’s consumer market is regaining momentum as a vital driver of economic growth.
Vietnam is emerging as a manufacturing and logistics hub, attracting foreign investments due to its competitive labour costs (20–50 per cent lower than regional peers) and a 9.8 per cent increase in manufacturing output in 2024. An “anything but China” strategy is driving multinationals to shift production to Vietnam.
The country is also benefiting from major infrastructure projects, including the Long Thanh International Airport and deep-sea ports in Haiphong, are strengthening its logistics position, while expanding industrial areas and cross-border e-commerce fuel growth in both sectors.