Surajit Rakshit, country head of global trade solutions at HSBC Vietnam, analyzes key trends that will shape the future of global trade and their implications for Vietnam.
Surajit Rakshit, country head of global trade solutions, HSBC Vietnam. Photo courtesy of the bank.
Against a challenging backdrop of high inflation, economic slowdown, and geopolitical conflicts, trade is expected to grow gradually. Despite a 1.2% contraction in merchandise trade volume in 2023, the WTO predicts a modest rebound with a growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, mirroring similar projections for global GDP.
The global trade landscape is undergoing significant transformation due to technological advancements, evolving customer needs and sustainability initiatives. As the world gears up for a period of change, new trends will emerge that will reshape trade for years to come.
Shift to regionalization
The Covid-19 pandemic altered the world in many ways, one of which was the reversal of globalization we’ve seen in decades. As globalization becomes less prevalent, regionalization will be driven further by geopolitical factors which could further fragment the world into West-East and North-South trade blocs. This new era of multilateralism will see the emergence of new trade blocs and corridors in Asia and North America.
Over the next few years, there will be an increase in friendshoring – where supply chain networks are focused on countries regarded as political and economic allies. Meanwhile, bilateral and multilateral trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will strengthen inter-regional trade corridors.
These would play a crucial role in promoting regionalization by reducing trade barriers, harmonizing regulations, improving infrastructure and connectivity, fostering economic cooperation, strengthening institutional frameworks, and enhancing cultural and social ties within the region.
Fast-growing emerging markets that are pursuing non-aligned strategies will benefit from increased trade in the multipolar landscape. Emerging markets like Mexico, Vietnam and India are positioning themselves as alternative sources of production to China, in particular for manufacturing goods, and seeing companies shift supply chain segments to their markets.
In the Middle East, countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are capitalizing on their status as a relatively neutral political arbiter and their central geographical position as well as a trade facilitator between East and West and the Global South.
Supply chain restructuring
As a consequence of regionalization, corporates are prioritizing resilience over cost savings and efficiencies in their supply chains. They will de-risk their logistics networks by moving production out of areas affected by conflict, protectionism, and climate change. This may result in longer shipping routes and elevated costs but favor reliability and security.
Meanwhile, potential escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China will lead to a gap in global trade. Many emerging markets have filled in the gap as alternative sources of production for goods. This can create benefits to global supply chains and trade in the long term, especially as bystander countries have boosted their exports to the U.S. and the rest of the world, while their exports to China have remained largely unaffected. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea and Mexico have surfaced as major export beneficiaries in this shift to alternative centers to Chinese exports.
Widespread AI adoption
Artificial intelligence (AI) is set to overtake blockchain to be the most disruptive technology for businesses and revolutionize trade in the future. This will herald a paradigm shift in the operating environment, as businesses embrace the ability to optimize supply chains, enhance efficiency and reduce costs through predictive analytics, drive data-driven market insights to capture new business opportunities, and use AI-powered trade finance solutions to streamline transactions.
AI holds a transformative power which is capable of influencing what is traded, how, and at what cost. The dawn of AI heralds a new era of digitally driven trade, fuelled by advancements in blockchain, big data, and additive manufacturing across sectors. While the potential is vast, concerns remain in shaping appropriate regulations amidst diverging rules on data flows and harmonization.
Implications for Vietnam
Asian supply chains are undergoing major structural changes, a number of which favor the shift to ASEAN. As Asia’s supply chains evolve, this has led to the rise of new locations in the region’s supply chain landscape. Countries that had historically been central to Asia’s supply chains, namely China, South Korea and Japan, are being joined by new players.
Vietnam, for instance, has emerged as a significant manufacturing and export hub, especially in electronics. Attracted by the country’s competitive labour costs and relatively stable political environment, companies such as Samsung and Intel have made significant investments. Samsung alone accounted for approximately 20% of Vietnam’s total exports in 2023, making Vietnam a crucial node in the global electronics supply chain.
Over the next few years, it is unlikely that we will witness a reduction in trade, but rather a shift in where trade takes place. This reconfiguration of global supply chains, driven by a combination of economic and geopolitical factors, offers multinational corporates opportunities to reinforce and optimize their logistics networks. It also represents a significant potential for Vietnam.
The future of trade is exciting as new trends and patterns evolve. Companies are looking at adopting smarter trade which would drive global economic growth and social progress.
The Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA) has proposed a pilot mechanism that would allow businesses to invest in and construct worker housing within industrial parks.
In a document submitted to the Prime Minister, contributing feedback on a draft pilot policy aimed at boosting social housing development, HoREA suggested that businesses, cooperatives, and cooperative unions operating within industrial parks be permitted to build accommodation for their workers. It also called for allowing companies to rent housing outside industrial parks for the same purpose.
HoREA emphasized that all costs related to building or renting worker housing should be recognized as legitimate business expenses and be included in the enterprise’s operating costs.
The association further recommended expanding the policy framework to allow companies within industrial parks to lease social housing or worker accommodation built by third-party developers outside the park premises.
According to Mr. Lê Hoàng Châu, Chairman of HoREA, the current Housing Law (2023) only allows companies to rent worker housing inside industrial parks, without clearly defining whether they can rent social housing outside the parks or construct such housing themselves.
With worker housing demand at industrial parks far exceeding supply, HoREA pointed out that current social housing and dormitory offerings are inadequate. Meanwhile, commercial housing remains out of reach for most workers due to high prices. Therefore, the association urges the government to introduce policies enabling manufacturing businesses—despite not operating in real estate—to develop their own accommodation solutions for employees.
HoREA underscored that such policies would create a strong legal foundation, empowering enterprises and cooperatives to proactively resolve housing issues for workers. If allowed to construct their own housing, companies could ensure homes go to those in need, boosting employee retention, improving living standards, and supporting sustainable growth in industrial zones.
The association also proposed financial support mechanisms, including tax incentives, access to preferential loans, or government-matching support, to reduce the financial burden on companies participating in worker housing development.
Previously, many businesses had expressed a desire to buy land, build housing, and offer installment-based homeownership plans to workers, whereby employees would pay monthly through salary deductions. While this model helps workers secure long-term housing, legal procedures remain a major hurdle.
Providing accommodation has increasingly become part of corporate strategies to retain labor, alongside other employee welfare policies. For example, Nissei Electric Vietnam (Linh Trung 1 Export Processing Zone, Thu Duc City) has built a dormitory complex with 285 shared rooms, housing up to 2,280 workers. Eternal Prowess Vietnam (District 12) and Thien Phat Company (Linh Trung 2 EPZ) have also invested in on-site worker housing. Thien Phat’s project includes 368 units (35m² each), rented at VND 2.2 million/month, with 80% of the units for families and 20% for shared accommodations.
As of Q2 2024, Ho Chi Minh City has 18 industrial parks with around 1,700 businesses employing approximately 320,000 workers. Citywide, over 1.3 million people are employed in factories. However, there are only 16 official worker housing complexes, accommodating about 22,000 people. The majority of workers rely on rented rooms or stay with acquaintances—often sharing 12m² rooms among 2–3 people, which consumes 15–20% of their monthly income.
From 2021 to the present, Ho Chi Minh City has completed six social housing projects with 2,700 units and is building four more with 3,000 units. By April 30, the city aims to resolve legal hurdles and break ground on 5–6 additional social housing projects, totaling around 8,000 units.
The Thaco – Thái Bình Industrial Park, covering more than 194 hectares with an investment of over VND 2,100 billion, is expected to become operational within this year, according to the development plan.
Recently, provincial leaders of Thái Bình conducted an on-site inspection of land clearance efforts and infrastructure construction progress at the Thaco – Thái Bình Industrial Park located in Quỳnh Phụ District.
To date, Quỳnh Phụ District has completed compensation and land clearance for nearly 192 hectares of agricultural land, involving the land recovery of 1,067 households to hand over to the investor for project implementation.
Currently, the district is focusing on clearing the remaining land, involving 94 households in Lương Cầu Hamlet, An Cầu Commune. At the same time, it is coordinating with the electricity sector to relocate a 220kV high-voltage power line.
On the investor’s side, groundwork construction is underway, including roadbeds, internal roads, stormwater and wastewater drainage systems, and communication infrastructure within the industrial park.
The Thaco – Thái Bình Industrial Park is a specialized high-tech agricultural industrial park proposed by THACO Group (chaired by billionaire Trần Bá Dương) since 2017, originally planned to cover 250 hectares. By July 2017, the provincial authorities agreed to incorporate the project into Thái Bình’s industrial development master plan.
In August 2020, THACO officially broke ground on the industrial park’s infrastructure. A year later, in August 2021, the project’s investment certificate was revised, confirming a total investment of over VND 2,100 billion and a land area of more than 194 hectares. The project is being developed across An Thái, An Ninh, and An Cầu communes in Quỳnh Phụ District.
According to the roadmap, the investor is determined to complete and officially launch the project in 2025.
The Thaco – Thái Bình Industrial Park is designed as a dedicated high-tech agricultural zone, featuring various functional subdivisions including an administration center, agro-food processing zone, high-tech agricultural training center, experimental farms, agricultural materials production area, and a cargo transport port.
This project is considered one of the key developments in Thái Bình Province, playing a crucial role in the region’s socio-economic growth strategy.
Vietnam’s semiconductor industry has immense potential, driven by strategic advantages and a growing market. However, addressing gaps in workforce development, training infrastructure, and industry collaboration is crucial.
According to Statista Market Insights, the Vietnamese semiconductor market is forecast to see healthy growth with a compound annual growth rate of 9.62 per cent between 2024 and 2027, reaching a market volume of $26.20 billion.
Le Quan, Senior lecturer Faculty of Engineering Fulbright University Vietnam
Vietnam also boasts over 30 foreign-led companies in integrated circuit (IC) design, including established players like Renesas, Synopsys, and Cadence alongside innovative startups like Ampere, ADTechnology, Inphi, FingerVina, Dolphin Technology. The sector also encompasses numerous smaller firms with around 100 or fewer employees.
By 2040, Vietnam is poised to become a crucial player in the global semiconductor ecosystem, encompassing all aspects of the industry, from design and manufacturing to assembly, test, and packaging (ATP) and equipment fabrication.
The strategy emphasises the importance of fostering a skilled workforce. Vietnam boasts a strong talent pool in the semiconductor industry, with 50,000 design engineers, 200,000 electronics engineers, 500,000 technical workers, and one million software engineers. To further enhance this workforce, the strategy aims to transition up to 30,000 personnel from the existing pool of 350,000 IT and telecommunications engineers.
The global semiconductor packaging landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation, driven by a surge in new facilities across Asia. The wave of semiconductor investment in Vietnam and the industry’s demand for personnel have driven educational institutions, from top universities to vocational colleges, to launch training programmes related to semiconductors.
Last year, major universities such as Hanoi University of Science and Technology, University of IT – Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh, and the University of Engineering and Technology announced engineering programmes specialising in semiconductors. Younger universities like FPT and Phenikaa are also making significant investments in this area, not only in training initiatives but also in facilities and equipment.
However, to truly understand the current landscape of semiconductor training in Vietnam, it is essential to look at the regulations and current state of training schemes in this field from 2024 backward.
Firstly, the high costs associated with establishing chip fabrication facilities make it an impractical investment for Vietnam. The country’s resources would be better allocated towards sectors that promise more immediate returns, such as ATP and IC design. Advanced packaging technologies represent a feasible and profitable entry point in the global semiconductor value chain, aligning with Vietnam’s strengths in low-cost, adaptable labour.
Vietnam should focus on drawing overseas funding into ATP operations, leveraging its lower labour costs to attract foreign companies. The availability of a high-quality but affordable workforce makes Vietnam an attractive destination for packaging, testing, and assembly processes. Prioritising such investment with advanced packaging capabilities will allow Vietnam to build a competitive advantage in this sector.
Meanwhile, the IC design segment represents a high-value opportunity with significant global demand. To capitalise on this, Vietnam should proactively seek partnerships and outsourced projects from international IC design firms. Engaging Vietnamese firms in IC design outsourcing allows for skill transfer, builds local capacity, and positions Vietnam as a reliable partner in the global semiconductor value chain.
Collaboration between industry, educators, and government should be boosted. Building a cohesive semiconductor workforce will require closer partnerships between educational institutions, industry players, and the government.
By integrating real-world projects into academic programmes, Vietnamese graduates will better understand the industry’s practical requirements and be more prepared to transition directly into the workforce. Schemes that bring industry projects to academia will provide students with hands-on experience, making them job-ready upon graduation.
At the same time, establishing specialised training for semiconductor roles, particularly in ATP and IC design, will be essential to reduce the industry’s current reliance on costly in-house training. This should involve upskilling engineers from related fields through short, intensive courses designed to meet industry standards.
Partnerships with international organisations for curriculum development, as well as accreditation for training initiatives, will help elevate Vietnam’s semiconductor workforce to global standards.
Vietnam can also implement “train-the-trainer” programmes. Its academic institutions face a shortage of faculty members with practical experience in semiconductor technologies. By leveraging international partnerships, Vietnam can upskill its instructors, who can then transfer these skills to future generations of engineers.
Notably, several US institutions have expressed willingness to offer training to Vietnamese trainers, a vital step towards creating a sustainable, locally driven semiconductor education ecosystem.
Finally, effective workforce development in the semiconductor industry requires government involvement in fostering a supportive ecosystem. Policies that incentivise partnerships between academia and industry, such as funding for research and development and joint training programmes, are critical.