Project

Hopes endure for real estate optimism

Published

9 hours ago

April 26, 2025

There had been heightened optimism among investors when it comes to Vietnam’s real estate sector this year – but a spanner now may be in the works in the form of new and heavy US tariffs.

The unexpected decision of the United States to impose strict tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US will likely have a knock-on effect on the country’s recovering real estate sector.

Hopes endure for real estate optimism, Photo: Le Toan

Dinh Minh Tuan, southern regional director for property website Batdongsan.com.vn, said that if the US tariffs are implemented on April 9 (see Pages 2-3), Vietnam may experience a decrease in foreign investment inflows, which may reduce the liquidity of the real estate market in the mid-range and low-end segments.

“There will be a risk that the demand for buying and renting houses by foreigners will decrease respectively,” Tuan said.

In addition, under the pressure of controlling inflation and exchange rates, homebuyers will have difficulty repaying their debts, leading to a drop in purchasing power, especially in the mid-range segment.

“The negative sentiment from the US will also cause the real estate market to freeze temporarily, the severity of which will depend on Vietnam’s ability to respond and the development of global trade policies,” Tuan added. “The real estate segments that will be greatly affected are mid-range real estate, industrial real estate, and possibly resorts.”

Before the US unveiled its plans for global economic upheaval last week, developers and investors in Vietnam had been bullish when it came to new projects thanks to a recently strengthened legal system, favourable economic indicators, and overall heightened optimism.

Major housing group Vinhomes plans to launch at least four new projects for sale this year: Apollo City in Quang Ninh province, Wonder City in Hanoi, Phuoc Vinh Tay in Long An province, and Duong Kinh in Haiphong city.

The group is also set to sell more developments in the new urban area Duc Hoa-Hau Nghia in the Mekong Delta province of Long An.

According to a report released by ACB Securities in March, Vinhomes’s Wonder City and Phuoc Vinh Tay may respectively contribute 20 and 12 per cent to Vinhomes 2025 sales contract value, expected at $3.7 billion.

Dat Xanh Group will restart Gem Riverside in Ho Chi Minh City later this year. Vietcombank Securities in a mid-March report said that the selling price level of Gem Riverside would be positive, at $4,400-4,800 per square metre, helping to bring in a cash flow of about over $1 billion over the next few years.

In parallel, Dat Xanh will also open the next subdivisions at Gem Sky World in Dong Nai province. Following 800 land plots sold in the Sapphire Parkview subdivision since 2024, Dat Xanh will launch around 400 more plots in 2025.

Meanwhile, Novaland also expects to earn a profit of $56 million this year thanks to the handover of more than 3,000 real estate products.

In addition to Aqua City, NovaWorld Phan Thiet, and NovaWorld Ho Tram, with legal progress to resume construction and sales this year, Novaland plans to open two other new complexes in Ho Chi Minh City: Park Avenue and Palm City.

New advances

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Construction has been studying international experience and reviewing regulations on the establishment of a National Housing Fund to develop low-cost housing in large cities.

According to real estate expert Dang Hung Vo, the fund will focus on supporting businesses and individuals through credit and tax policies.

“The state only plays a management role in this fund to regulate and ensure fairness in accordance with market mechanisms and the law of supply and demand. The state supports planning, land allocation, site clearance, and price regulation. Businesses and investors will be offered financial support to reduce pressure on project implementation. Thus, implementation will be faster, reducing investment costs, thereby reducing pressure on home prices,” said Vo.

Moreover, the Ministry of Finance has proposed to continue applying a 30 per cent reduction in land rent for 2025. This policy is a significant financial support measure that helps ease cost pressures for real estate businesses, particularly those leasing land from the state for development.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh asked the State Bank of Vietnam and commercial banks to study preferential credit packages to develop housing for young people, while the Real Estate Association proposed applying an annual interest rate of 6-7 per cent for young people buying homes for the first time.

According to Duong Duc Hieu, director and senior analyst at Vietnam Investors Service, said that despite improvements in revenue recognition and cash resources, developer profitability and operating cash flow continued to deteriorate in 2024.

“However, we view 2025 as a year of stronger operating performance for developers. New housing supply from extensive developments since in the second half of last year, buoyed by robust homebuyer sentiment, will drive sales and enhance the financial performance of developers in 2025,” Hieu said in a report released in March.

“New policies will boost housing supply and demand in 2025 and beyond. The new Land Law, Housing Law, and Real Estate Business Law, effective since August 2024, along with over 20 guiding circulars and decrees, have accelerated developments and sales,” Hieu added. “The new housing supply will continue improving in 2025 while demand will recover unevenly, with further exuberance in the residential segment and lags in the hospitality segment.”

Confidence in the market

According to Michael Glancy, managing director for JLL in Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam, the latter remains one of the fastest growing economies in Asia.

“As Vietnam’s property market enters a new chapter of economic growth, JLL remains optimistic about investment prospects for 2025, highlighting rising deal flows, resilient fundamentals, and ongoing regulatory enhancements as key drivers of growth. Vietnam’s real estate market is showing clear signs of strengthening, and we anticipate a significant uptick in investment activity as we progress through 2025,” said Glancy in JLL’s Vietnam Property Market Outlook 2025 report.

“The easing of borrowing costs and a notable boost in investor confidence are key drivers behind this positive trend. Vietnam’s fundamental strengths continue to make it an attractive destination for real estate investment across a range of sectors. As market conditions continue to improve, we expect to see a surge in transactions and development projects, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a prime market for real estate opportunities in Southeast Asia,” he added.

After record-low supply levels in 2024, Vietnam’s residential sector is set for a resurgence, fuelled by new regulatory amendments that are improving transparency and approval processes. Developers and investors have historically focused on Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and increasingly on satellite areas, where demand is expected to pick up.

“The market is embarking upon a healthier cycle, supported by a combination of urbanisation, a growing middle class, and regulatory improvements. We anticipate stronger sales in well-planned residential projects, especially mid-to-high-end segments,” said Le Trang, country head of JLL Vietnam.

“Vietnam remains a top Southeast Asian destination for manufacturing, leveraging its strategic location. The country benefits from evolving local regulations, global shifts, and ambitious infrastructure development, making it increasingly attractive for industrial and logistics investments,” Trang added. “Vietnam remains one of the fastest growing economies in Asia. Disbursed foreign investment capital are expected to reach $25.4 billion by 2024, up 9.4 per cent on-year, with major infrastructure driving the development of real estate hotspots across the country.”

Marc Townsend, senior advisor Arcadia Consulting (Singapore)

I think it’s a bit too early to say what the long-term effects will be for the US tariff changes, but it’s certainly a huge wake-up call for the Vietnamese government and wider real estate market, especially the nascent industrial sector.

However, the industrial sector will almost certainly stall and possibly falter until there is more certainty with the ongoing negotiations. The wider real estate market was recovering well from a couple of years of low supply in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi; too much inventory and speculation in the second home sector in Danang, Nha Trang, and Phu Quoc; and the ongoing anti-corruption drive, low levels of confidence, and higher interest rates.

This year also started well with new government policy and laws regarding the real estate market, improving infrastructure, and a widening of the manufacturing base prompting the government to forecast 8 per cent GDP growth. This will be a more challenging proposition but, with Vietnam’s well-oiled diplomacy skills and the whole world now wearing sneakers that are made in Vietnam, not an impossibility.

Peter Ryder, executive chairman Indochina Capital

The large US reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam will definitely impact the real estate market, as its growth is dependent on GDP growth.

As of 2023, exports to the US accounted for nearly 30 per cent of Vietnam’s GDP. Thus, if the new tariffs are implemented, Vietnam’s GDP will be considerably affected, and this will in turn affect real estate growth.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector is at the heart of Vietnam’s economy and has been primarily responsible for its impressive growth over the years.

If these tariffs stand, the government’s growth target of 8 per cent in 2025 will no longer be feasible. With a depressed local, regional, and global economy, all of Vietnam’s economic sectors, including real estate, will be adversely affected.

For the industrial market, Indochina Capital has discussed this matter with some of its tenants at Core5 Vietnam, and all players understand the level of uncertainty surrounding this issue.

This tariff rate will not only affect leasing and releasing at all industrial properties across the country, but foreign investors will also think twice before committing their capital to Vietnam.

Related Topics:real estate US tariffs Vietnam

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Uncertainty weighing on real estate

Published

41 minutes ago

April 26, 2025

Industrialzone.net

The ever-changing status of the global economy following last week’s tariff shocks continue to loom large among investors in Vietnam’s real estate market.

All real estate segments are at risk of losing appeal if high global tariffs are eventually put in place, photo Le Toan

Pham Lam, vice chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, said that while it is premature to determine the full impact of new US import tariffs on Vietnam’s property market, early signs point to shaken investor sentiment and potential disruptions to foreign investment.

“If multinational corporations scale back or delay their factory expansion plans, the demand for land and factory leasing could decline, which may place downward pressure on industrial rents, lead to increased vacancy, and postpone new industrial zone developments,” he said. “This would affect key industrial property markets such as Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Haiphong, Long An, and Binh Duong.”

Meanwhile, real estate expert Nguyen Hoang said that the United States remains one of the most critical export destinations for Vietnam’s foreign-invested enterprises.

“Any change in tariffs will significantly influence capital flows, investor confidence, and manufacturing strategies of companies operating in Vietnam. If a high tariff is fully implemented in 90 days, it could seriously diminish Vietnam’s investment appeal – affecting all real estate segments as a result,” Hoang said.

Vietnam’s property market has only recently emerged from a prolonged two-year downturn.

“It remains highly sensitive to economic and policy shocks. Investors have remained cautious, and any further external pressure could threaten to break the fragile liquidity recovery, potentially sending the market back into a period of short-term stagnation,” Hoang added.

Alex Crane, managing director of Knight Frank Vietnam, said that the recent tariff twists by the US casts a shadow of uncertainty, with potential implications for various segments of the market.

While manufacturing has shown resilience, it is still on the path to full recovery from the pandemic, particularly in labour-intensive sectors like garments and furniture. Tariffs imposed now would not have as severe an impact as they might have during Vietnam’s 2019 peak, but consequences are still expected, Crane said.

“I may expect that major transactions, especially those involving large capital outlays, are being paused or undergoing extended due diligence as investors and developers reassess assumptions and underwriting models and commercial occupiers are expected to defer large capital expenditures in the short term,” Crane said.

In addition, the response from the State Bank of Vietnam, particularly regarding monetary policy, will be crucial. While a rate cut may not effectively stimulate residential demand (as demonstrated in 2024), targeted lending for key industries and easing of loan-to-value ratios or debt-to-income limits for developers could provide relief.

“At present, most segments of the real estate market are in a holding pattern, awaiting clarity from the evolving negotiations between the Vietnamese and US governments. While uncertainty is unsettling, Vietnam’s underlying fundamentals remain sound, and the market’s long-term outlook is still viewed positively,” he added.

Nguyen Dung Minh, deputy CEO of MIK Group, has warned that under the new US tariff regime, many investors will be forced to reassess their strategies, likely leading to a decline in the demand for industrial land.

“Investors will need time to re-evaluate their actual demand and incoming orders and make necessary adjustments before they can fully gauge the extent of the impact,” Minh said.

He added that the implications go beyond just industrial land. “The new US tariffs are also expected to disrupt supply chains and negatively affect supporting sectors such as logistics, warehousing, and raw materials manufacturing. As production slows, so too will the demand for land associated with these services,” Minh said.

Trang Bui, country head Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam While the effects of tariffs are typically delayed, most economists warn that they may eventually fuel inflation and dampen economic growth. Many manufacturing firms could opt to postpone their expansion plans in the short term if export duties become too burdensome. There is also a possibility that some companies may look to diversify their supply chains towards a Vietnam+1 model, shifting parts of their operations to neighbouring countries. This could lead to a decline in demand for factories and warehouse leasing, two key drivers of the industrial real estate segment. However, it is important to recognise that industrial real estate is fundamentally a long-term investment. Vietnam has long positioned itself as the manufacturing hub of Southeast Asia, thanks to its strategic location and the “bamboo diplomacy” approach, which has enabled the country to swiftly join trade negotiations and sign multiple free trade agreements. Moreover, many manufacturers in Vietnam have already established tightly integrated supply chains. As such, their investment plans tend to operate on a much longer time horizon than the near-term effects of tariff policy. Relocating supply chains typically requires at least 3–5 years, making short-term shifts less likely. Overall, Vietnam’s industrial real estate sector has proven resilient under various political and economic conditions. Investors would do well to focus on long-term trends and structural advantages. Manufacturers, in particular, may take this opportunity to secure high-quality industrial assets, invest in automation, and pull in skilled labour, while continuing to monitor developments in upcoming trade negotiations with caution. Nguyen Thi Bich Ngoc, CEO, Sen Vang Group When it comes to the reciprocal tariff policy announced by the US, the greater danger currently lies not in the tariff itself, but in the heightened sense of uncertainty it has triggered across the Vietnamese market, a sentiment clearly reflected in recent VN-Index fluctuations. In the short term, the policy will weigh heavily on Vietnam’s industrial real estate sector. However, in the long run, this challenge could serve as a catalyst for stronger growth. It presents an opportunity for the government and industrial zone developers to rethink their strategies, offering more competitive, attractive solutions to both foreign and domestic investors. Rather than relying solely on external trends like the China+1 shift, Vietnam should leverage its inherent competitive advantages, including a strategic geographic location, a skilled and cost-effective labour force, and political stability, to pull in long-term investment. These are undeniable strengths that set Vietnam apart. Moreover, this is also an opportune moment for Vietnam to re-evaluate and restructure its key sectors, prioritising strategic industries with high growth potential. Continued engagement in bilateral and multilateral trade agreements will open up new opportunities and elevate Vietnam’s position both regionally and globally. Ultimately, we must seize this challenge as a turning point, transforming pressure into momentum for sustainable development. Vo Hong Thang, Investment director DKRA Group The industrial infrastructure, commercial, and residential real estate segments are all likely to face increasing headwinds if a huge tariff increase is eventually implemented. In recent years, a number of developers have made significant investments in industrial zones, betting on a continued influx of foreign direct investment. However, the new tariff policy raises the possibility of such flows being diverted to other countries. Vietnam now faces the risk of having built the nest, but being unable to attract the eagle. In addition, liquidity in both residential and commercial real estate, including retail, office, and hospitality, is likely to weaken in the short term due to more cautious investor sentiment, defensive capital flows, and reduced purchasing power from end-users. Niche investment segments such as serviced apartments, tourism-related accommodations, and foreign buyer housing could also see demand drop, particularly as the foreign expert and executive workforce, typically a key demand driver, scales back plans to live and work in Vietnam.

Trang Bui, country head Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam

While the effects of tariffs are typically delayed, most economists warn that they may eventually fuel inflation and dampen economic growth. Many manufacturing firms could opt to postpone their expansion plans in the short term if export duties become too burdensome. There is also a possibility that some companies may look to diversify their supply chains towards a Vietnam+1 model, shifting parts of their operations to neighbouring countries.

This could lead to a decline in demand for factories and warehouse leasing, two key drivers of the industrial real estate segment. However, it is important to recognise that industrial real estate is fundamentally a long-term investment. Vietnam has long positioned itself as the manufacturing hub of Southeast Asia, thanks to its strategic location and the “bamboo diplomacy” approach, which has enabled the country to swiftly join trade negotiations and sign multiple free trade agreements.

Moreover, many manufacturers in Vietnam have already established tightly integrated supply chains. As such, their investment plans tend to operate on a much longer time horizon than the near-term effects of tariff policy. Relocating supply chains typically requires at least 3–5 years, making short-term shifts less likely.

Overall, Vietnam’s industrial real estate sector has proven resilient under various political and economic conditions. Investors would do well to focus on long-term trends and structural advantages. Manufacturers, in particular, may take this opportunity to secure high-quality industrial assets, invest in automation, and pull in skilled labour, while continuing to monitor developments in upcoming trade negotiations with caution.

Nguyen Thi Bich Ngoc, CEO, Sen Vang Group

When it comes to the reciprocal tariff policy announced by the US, the greater danger currently lies not in the tariff itself, but in the heightened sense of uncertainty it has triggered across the Vietnamese market, a sentiment clearly reflected in recent VN-Index fluctuations.

In the short term, the policy will weigh heavily on Vietnam’s industrial real estate sector. However, in the long run, this challenge could serve as a catalyst for stronger growth. It presents an opportunity for the government and industrial zone developers to rethink their strategies, offering more competitive, attractive solutions to both foreign and domestic investors.

Rather than relying solely on external trends like the China+1 shift, Vietnam should leverage its inherent competitive advantages, including a strategic geographic location, a skilled and cost-effective labour force, and political stability, to pull in long-term investment. These are undeniable strengths that set Vietnam apart.

Moreover, this is also an opportune moment for Vietnam to re-evaluate and restructure its key sectors, prioritising strategic industries with high growth potential. Continued engagement in bilateral and multilateral trade agreements will open up new opportunities and elevate Vietnam’s position both regionally and globally.

Ultimately, we must seize this challenge as a turning point, transforming pressure into momentum for sustainable development.

Vo Hong Thang, Investment director DKRA Group

The industrial infrastructure, commercial, and residential real estate segments are all likely to face increasing headwinds if a huge tariff increase is eventually implemented.

In recent years, a number of developers have made significant investments in industrial zones, betting on a continued influx of foreign direct investment. However, the new tariff policy raises the possibility of such flows being diverted to other countries. Vietnam now faces the risk of having built the nest, but being unable to attract the eagle.

In addition, liquidity in both residential and commercial real estate, including retail, office, and hospitality, is likely to weaken in the short term due to more cautious investor sentiment, defensive capital flows, and reduced purchasing power from end-users.

Niche investment segments such as serviced apartments, tourism-related accommodations, and foreign buyer housing could also see demand drop, particularly as the foreign expert and executive workforce, typically a key demand driver, scales back plans to live and work in Vietnam.

Project

Central Vietnam city seeks $1.84 bln for 15 projects in economic zone

Published

2 hours ago

April 26, 2025

Industrialzone.net

Authorities of Hue city in central Vietnam have released a list of 15 projects in Chan May-Lang Co Economic Zone which will need VND47.5 trillion ($1.84 billion) in investment capital between 2025 and 2026.

Chan May-Lang Co Economic Zone in Hue city, central Vietnam. Photo by The Investor/Dinh Duy.

Notable projects include the Chan May non-tariff zones No. 1 and 2 infrastructure development project, with a total area of over 503 hectares and combined investment capital of VND2.8 trillion ($108.23 million).

Another is the VND20 trillion ($773 million) Chan May Urban Area project (locations 1 and 2), which will cover 225 hectares and be implemented over five years.

The LNG terminal project at Chan May Port, 27 hectares with an investment of VND8.6 trillion ($332.43 million), is set for five-year implementation.

The 120-hectare Bai Ca eco-tourism project in Lang Co township will have investment capital of VND2.5 trillion.

The Lang Co beach resort, with an area of 45 hectares and total investment of VND4 trillion ($154.62 million), will be carried out over five years; while the 75-hectare Lap An lagoon tourism, urban development and resort complex in Lang Co township will cost VND6 trillion.

According to the management board of Hue Economic and Industrial Zones, since its establishment, Chan May-Lang Co Economic Zone has attracted 55 investment projects which remain valid, with total registered capital of VND97.32 trillion ($3.76 billion).

Among these, 15 are foreign-invested projects with combined capital of VND56.02 trillion ($2.17 billion), accounting for 57.56% of the total.

Several prominent foreign investors have established a presence in the zone, such as Banyan Tree Group (Singapore) with the Laguna Lang Co Resort and Winson Group (Taiwan) with the Billion Max Vietnam Export Processing Factory.

Chan May-Lang Co has become a destination for investments in sectors like tourism and resort development; seaport infrastructure; logistics; clean industry; and high-tech, environmentally friendly industries, with annual revenue reaching nearly VND4 trillion ($154.62 million) and tax contributions of around VND300 billion.

The management board said Hue city has proposed the Ministry of Construction review the adjustment of the EZ master plan through 2045, for submission to the Prime Minister.

The strategic goal is to develop Chan May-Lang Co into a key economic zone of central Vietnam – a coastal gateway offering logistics services for the central region and the East-West Economic Corridor, as well as a hub for high-end tourism services.

To attract investors, the local government will offer a range of incentives such as a 10% corporate income tax rate for 15 years from the first year the project generates revenue; import tax exemption for goods to create fixed assets for investment projects, and land and water surface rental exemptions, the board said.

Project

UK’s Uppingham School plans to open first Asia facility in southern Vietnam

Published

4 hours ago

April 26, 2025

Industrialzone.net

Uppingham School, a leading British independent boarding and day school, plans to open its first campus in Asia in Dong Nai province, a manufacturing hub in southern Vietnam.

Bien Hoa town in Dong Nai province - an industrial hub in southern Vietnam. Photo courtesy of Dan tri (Intellectual) newspaper. — Bien Hoa town in Dong Nai province – an industrial hub in southern Vietnam. Photo courtesy of Dan tri (Intellectual) newspaper.

The announcement was made during a meeting on Thursday between the Dong Nai administration and Viet Capital Asset Management JSC (VCAM), the local firm that will develop the project.

The project, named Uppingham International School Vietnam, is estimated to cost VND2 trillion ($77.3 million) and will cover 6.7 hectares in Long Hung district, Bien Hoa town.

The school is expected to enroll 1,900 students in its first phase, with the inaugural academic year slated for 2027–2028.

Speaking of the project, British consul general in Ho Chi Minh City Alexandra Smith said that education has always been a key area of cooperation between the UK and Vietnam, aligning well with the development goals set by Dong Nai province.

The British diplomat expressed her belief that the Uppingham International School Vietnam project will help attract more foreign direct investment, as it provides a high-quality education environment for the children of expatriate professionals.

VCAM chairwoman Nguyen Thanh Phuong said around 20,000 Vietnamese parents currently send their children abroad for boarding school education.

Dong Nai is a major manufacturing hub in southern Vietnam and home to Long Thanh International Airport, which is expected to become the largest airport in the country once operational.