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Donald Trump won. What’s next for Vietnam real estate market?

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Under Trump’s administration in the next four years, there might be further supply chain diversification, acceleration of friendshoring and nearshoring strategies, and trade polarization globally. Vietnam may benefit from these trends, write Avison Young Vietnam analysts.

David Jackson, principal and CEO of Avison Young Vietnam. Photo courtesy of the company.

David Jackson, principal and CEO of Avison Young Vietnam. Photo courtesy of the company.

Donald Trump won the 2024 election and will start his second presidential term in the next couple of weeks. The world is now looking forward to the next four years with mixed anticipation. What’s next for Vietnam real estate market?

Registered FDI into Vietnam from the U.S., mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan from 2015 to September 2024.

Registered FDI into Vietnam from the U.S., mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan from 2015 to September 2024.

Vietnam among key beneficiaries in the global trade since Trump’s first presidential term

In the period of 2017-September 2024, registered and realized FDI into Vietnam increased 3.3% and 1.9% on average annually, in respective order.

Registered FDI from mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan into Vietnam trended upward in the same period. During the years of Covid-19 (2020-2022), investment from mainland China and Hongkong dipped, while that from Singapore peaked.

New FDI projects into Vietnam from the U.S., mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan from 2025 to September 2024.

New FDI projects into Vietnam from the U.S., mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan from 2025 to September 2024.

Manufacturing and real estate sectors continued to benefit from the shift of FDI into Vietnam, partly in line with the supply chain diversification trend which was sped up since the onset of the U.S.-China trade tension in 2018, as seen in the chart below.

During the same period, export from Vietnam to the U.S. and import from China to Vietnam grew significantly.

Real estate transactions in Vietnam accelerated, with the number of deals went up by almost 20% in the period of 2017-June 2024 compared to the pre-Trump period (2009-2016). Most transactions were recorded in the industrial, hotel, and office real estate sectors, in descending order.

Some notable new manufacturing facilities from mainland China and Hongkong which were set up in Vietnam since 2017:

What’s next?

Under Trump’s administration in the next four years, trade tension is predicted to be more unpredictable. The vow to impose up to 60% tariff on Chinese imported goods and 10-20% on all imports seem to ignite retaliation from not only China but also other U.S. trade partners such as the EU.

This, in a sense, may further the ongoing supply chain diversification, the acceleration of friendshoring and nearshoring strategies, and the trade polarization globally. Vietnam may benefit from these trends, as some businesses have already relocated or expanded their production and logistic facilities in the country and probably will continue to do so in the effort of risk mitigation as well as new market penetration.

After all, they can tap into the Vietnam domestic market of almost 100 million people, and the regional market of roughly 675 million people in Southeast Asia.

However, not much anticipation can be made of whether the Trump administration is going to go to the extreme end by heightening tariffs based on the origin of goods (or the “economic nationality” of a product).

During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% tariff on vehicles imported from Mexico due to the manufacturing link to China. Vietnam, as shown in the data above, has been benefiting from the China+1 strategy, with a surge in FDI, the number of newly registered FDI projects, the number of real estate transactions, and the volume of exports to the U.S.

And Trump, in his first presidential term, had complained about the U.S.-Vietnam gapping trade deficit, threatening to impose tariffs on products from the country amid the then ongoing trade tension with China.

Trump also repeatedly said that he would impose tariffs on products if produced by Chinese-owned companies, rebutting the traditional country-of-origin rules. The question now is to what extent and how soon he can start acting on these vows.

If the Republicans win majority in the US House of Representatives, a strong control for Donald Trump and less barriers for the roll-out of his policies will be likely.

With that being said, Vietnam is inarguably one of the most potential economies in the world. With an abundant and affordable labor force, strategic geography location, relative political stability, and favorable FDI policies, Vietnam has gone through successful transformation in the recent decades.

The institutional quality has been improved over the years and much effort has been put into infrastructure development to further the connectivity and logistic efficiency across the nation.

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Visa realignment considered towards more foreign visitors

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A more open visa policy for tourists, experts, and investors is part of the efforts to boost tourism demand and pull in foreign funding into Vietnam.

Several ministries have been instructed to study appropriate visa policies and diversify exemptions for some countries, with an added target of enticing the ultra-rich to spend more time in Vietnam, as part of a 2025 tourism stimulus programme issued in January.

At a regular government meeting on March 5, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh directed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to look at bilateral negotiations to expand visa exemptions and protection for Vietnamese citizens when travelling abroad, as well as to coordinates with authorities to simplify immigration procedures.

At the same time, the Ministry of Public Security, in particular the Vietnam Immigration Department and Department of Foreign Relations, are responsible for reviewing visas when entering the country.

The Ministry of Culture, Sports, and Tourism is tasked with further promoting the nation, attracting tourists, and managing hotels, services, and tourist agencies.

Pham Ha, CEO of travel company Lux Group, said implementing visa exemption policies could open up opportunities to attract investment from the upper class, contributing to promoting economic growth and developing luxury tourism in Vietnam.

“The tourism industry needs to have a strategy and tactics, such as the possibility of completely waiving visas for strategic partner countries like Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. Countries that have been granted visa exemptions also need to encourage stronger bilateral relations, and design and develop specialised products, such as heritage exploration products of national culture and territories worldwide,” Ha said.

Many countries have implemented so-called golden visa programmes by simplifying policies for investors and foreigners with high demand as a way to encourage investment.

Last month, the New Zealand government decided to simplify its Active Investor visa to support the recovery of its declining economy. To meet the requirements, investors must commit to have a minimum investment amount of $3.1 million into businesses in the country.

Starting from April 1, the Active Investor Plus visa programme will be simplified with an expanded scope of investment. The English language test for applicants will be abolished, while the requirement for minimum residency time for investors will also be reduced.

Last month, US President Donald Trump also put forward the idea of selling a “gold card” to wealthy foreigners, giving them the right to live and work in the US and offering a path to citizenship in exchange for a $5 million fee.

Those who own a gold card would be granted legal residency privileges similar to the green card issued to permanent residents of the US, with investment options including buying a house, establishing a company, or making contributions.

From March 1, the Vietnamese government had already begun visa exemption for citizens of Poland, Czech Republic, and Switzerland, to join 13 other nations that already enjoy the advantage. The newest exemption will initially last until the end of the year through tour programmes from Vietnamese travel companies with a temporary stay of 45 days, regardless of passport type.

Pham Hai Quynh, director of the Asian Tourism Development Institute, evaluated that 2025’s tourism stimulus strategy combined with additional visa exemptions will attract more people from new markets and increase access to potential markets for Vietnam’s tourism industry.

“Tourists from Poland, Czech Republic, and Switzerland are willing to pay for high-end resort services, and unique cultural experiences with a strong local imprint. Therefore, opening up to these markets can create many opportunities for the development of tourism and services,” Quynh said. “The decision is a positive step by the government in attracting international tourists, especially from countries with high spending potential.”

According to Vu The Binh, chairman of the Vietnam Tourism Association, investors from developed countries are also interested in coming to Vietnam to explore the market, seek partners, and participate in economic conferences combined with leisure tourism.

“Thanks to convenient visa policies, the trade connection between Vietnamese and foreign businesses will become stronger. Furthermore, this policy will likely pave the way for Vietnamese tourism to access more markets across Europe,” Binh predicted.

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Vietnam ripe for ultra-rich tourism boost

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Vietnam is attempting to increase its allure to ultra-wealthy tourists in a way that would not only bring economic benefits, but also encourage a rise in service quality in the industry.

Vietnam ripe for ultra-rich tourism boost
Some localities are catering to well-off groups who come for sightseeing, relaxation, or lavish weddings, photo Le Toan

A month ago, two American millionaires from the financial sector, Jeff Grinspoon and John Thomas Foley, participated in a three-day, two-night tour of Halong Bay as part of an exclusive tour programme for the ultra-wealthy being promoted by the northeastern province of Quang Ninh.

On the first day, the pair enjoyed relaxation, dining, and entertainment on a cruise, kayaking around Cong Do and Tra San areas. On the second day, they visited the fishing village of Vung Vieng, explored the Tien Ong area, and kayaked on Ba Ham Lake.

On the final day of the journey, the guests admired the landscapes of Bai Tu Long Bay and Halong Bay before moving back to Tuan Chau Port to conclude the trip.

To cater to such travellers, Quang Ninh has prepared conditions to ensure their satisfaction, including expeditiously developing the beaches Soi Sim, Hang Co, and Trinh Nu as well as identifying seven pristine island areas and exclusive beaches for the super luxury segment.

At the same time, the province is focused on enhancing the tourism experience through connecting private cruise services to islands or helicopter transfers, and researching the holding of art performances combined with cocktail parties in well-equipped caves to create a unique experience.

Quang Ninh Department of Tourism understands that several wealthy groups from around the world will visit Halong on special tour programmes in May. In June, around 200 other wealthy people from various countries are expected to visit the destination as part of the Art for Climate Festival Halong.

According to Deputy Minister of Culture, Sports, and Tourism Ho An Phong, the global luxury tourism market reached over $2.18 trillion in 2024 and is forecasted to exceed $3 trillion by 2032. “Vietnam has one of the new seven natural wonders of the world, three UNESCO world natural heritage sites, 15 intangible cultural heritage sites, over 40,000 historical and scenic sites, a rich folk music tradition, and diverse cuisine. It has many advantages to develop luxury tour products,” Phong said.

One successful example is the Son Doong cave expedition in the central province of Quang Binh. Although the tour is expensive and has a limited number of guests, it is typically sold out as soon as bookings are opened, said DM Phong. “This is an opportunity for Vietnam to enhance its exploitation of the luxury market, a huge revenue source for Vietnamese tourism,” he added.

Prof. Pham Hong Long, head of the Tourism Department at Hanoi University of Social Sciences and Humanities, stated that to exploit the potential of high-end products, Vietnam’s tourism industry must focus on developing culture, cuisine, customisation, community, and content.

“Traditional cultural values need to be preserved and promoted, combined with modern experiences to create trips rich in identity,” Long said. “Investment in premium culinary experiences, service design based on each tourist’s individual needs, opportunities for tourists to immerse themselves in local life, and continuous innovation of new tourism products – ranging from golf and helicopter sightseeing to cruises and wellness – are necessary to meet the diverse demands.”

The Vietnamese tourism industry also needs to focus on infrastructure, improving services, and building policies to support businesses, he added.

“Airports, highways, and marinas need to be well-invested to ensure convenient connections between high-end destinations, and luxury resorts must meet international standards in terms of design, amenities, and services,” Long said. “At the same time, simplifying entry procedures will help luxury tourists easily choose Vietnam as a destination.”

Ngo Thi Huong, vice general director of Business and Marketing at Vinpearl, said that the high-end customer segment demands unique and personalised products.

“To attract high-end tourists, the tourism industry needs to build products related to healthcare, green tourism, and sustainable tourism. Depending on the target customer, tailored products are required. For instance, South Korean tourists who enjoy golf tourism need high-quality related products, supported by specific promotional policies,” Huong advised.

According to Vietravel chairman Nguyen Quoc Ky, trips taken by ultra-wealthy individuals are typically tightly controlled in terms of their personal information and schedules.

However, the impact of these trips still gradually spreads within the network of entrepreneurs and high-level relationships, opening up opportunities to welcome more guests from elite circles.

“An ordinary product can still become a high-end one if managed properly,” Ky said. “The perception of the customer will determine whether the product is considered high-end or low-end tourism. A hotel with 5-star facilities but an unprofessional staff and poor service will not be perceived as one by tourists.”

All Asia Vacation CEO Nguyen Duc Hanh said that travelling to Vietnam is becoming a trend among the ultra-wealthy. “Among individuals with total assets over $30 million, the company has served about 100 different clients travelling to Vietnam in 2024, a 12 per cent increase from the previous year,” Hanh said. “Many destinations around the world have become outdated for ultra-wealthy guests. Vietnam also has the advantage of being a relatively new tourist destination, so there is a demand for unique experiences here.”

According to World Ultra Wealth 2024, in the next five years, the global ultra-wealthy population is projected to increase by 38 per cent, reaching 587,600 individuals with a total wealth increase of $19 trillion.

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Green e-commerce in Vietnam still faces challenges

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The lack of regulations and businesses’ reluctance to engage in environmental protection efforts have made it difficult for Vietnam’s e-commerce sector to transition to a greener model.

Green e-commerce in Vietnam still faces challenges
Vietnam’s e-commerce market is projected to grow at an average annual rate of over 20 per cent between 2024 and 2030, reaching approximately 90 billion USD by 2030, according to VECOM. (Photo: tapchitaichinh.vn)

Hanoi – While the overall macro policies on environmental protection and sustainable development are creating favourable conditions for green e-commerce, the actual implementation of green transformation still faces numerous challenges.

One key obstacle is that policies have yet to link environmental protection requirements, according to the report on the E-commerce Green Index (ECGI), released by a research team from the Vietnam E-commerce Association (VECOM) and the World Wide Fund (WWF) Vietnam.

Legal documents related to e-commerce rarely include specific environmental protection regulations. Instead, they primarily focus on restricting the trade of certain prohibited or conditionally permitted goods and services.

Additionally, there is a lack of coordinated action among stakeholders, including Government agencies overseeing e-commerce, logistics, postal services, environmental management, businesses and consumers.

Most online businesses are not actively engaged in environmental protection efforts due to limited awareness, increased operational costs and the absence of clear legal regulations.

This situation also affects awareness-raising efforts for businesses and consumers in the green e-commerce sector, which remains fragmented and insufficient.

Roadmap for transformation

To address these challenges, the research team has introduced the ECGI framework, which sets out criteria and a roadmap for gradually transitioning toward greener e-commerce.

The framework is designed to help businesses quickly and comprehensively identify specific environmentally friendly actions. This, in turn, enhances their reputation and business efficiency, especially as consumers are increasingly prioritising brands that demonstrate environmental responsibility.

It is structured into six major criteria, comprising 19 sub-criteria. The first group is the commitment to deploy green e-commerce in a sustainable model. In this criterion, the research unit recommends that businesses make a clear commitment to green e-commerce businesses following a sustainable model.

The second is goods-related standards. This includes two sub-criteria, which are prohibiting the sale of environmental products banned by law and ensuring compliance with regulations governing restricted and conditionally permitted products.

The third group of criteria is order fulfilment services. It encompasses several sub-criteria, including avoiding the use of plastic packaging and materials prohibited by law, limiting the use of plastic packaging and other environmentally harmful materials in order fulfilment, prioritising eco-friendly packaging and managing warehouses and delivery operations sustainably.

It is essential to encourage and assist customers in reducing or eliminating the use of single-use plastics, promote low-carbon delivery options and facilitate consumer feedback on businesses’ environmental protection activities.

Following are internal green commitments. The research team proposed the need for environmental protection policies, energy saving and the integration of renewable energy sources into their operations.

The final group of criteria is researching and implementing green business models. This includes promoting circular economy practices, developing responsible business guidelines for consumer protection in e-commerce and adopting the Corporate Sustainability Index (CSI) for e-commerce enterprises.

Vietnam’s e-commerce market is projected to grow at an average annual rate of over 20 per cent between 2024 and 2030, reaching approximately 90 billion USD by 2030, according to VECOM.

While this growth brings economic benefits, it also exerts increasing pressure on the environment.

The rising volume of plastic waste from packaging and greenhouse gas emissions from delivery operations have surged alongside the sector’s rapid expansion. Addressing these environmental concerns is crucial to ensuring that Vietnam’s e-commerce industry develops sustainably.

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