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Confidence remains in exchange rate stability

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While the exchange rate is benefiting from regulatory commitments and various supportive factors, risks may persist depending on US tariff policy.

The US Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged but indicated that rate cuts could be implemented later this year.

Confidence remains in exchange rate stability
The SBV has raised the daily fixing and upper forex ceiling rate, photo Le Toan

State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Deputy Governor Dao Minh Tu reaffirmed that with foreign exchange reserves, a positive export outlook, foreign investment inflows, and remittances, he remains confident in maintaining exchange rate stability.

“There is no need for individuals to hold foreign currency at home or in accounts. Sell it to the banks with confidence,” said Tu.

Taking a more cautious stance, UOB Singapore, noted that the VND hit a record low of around 25,600 VND/USD in early March after the SBV raised its USD selling price for banks, marking its first adjustment since October last year.

“The trend still leans towards further VND depreciation due to uncertainties related to China’s growth and tariff policies. There is a risk that the United States will impose tariffs on Vietnamese goods as Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US continues to rise significantly. However, strong domestic growth prospects and the SBV’s commitment to exchange rate stability could help ease depreciation pressure,” the UOB research team said.

In its Foreign Exchange Outlook report released last week, MUFG Bank raised its Q4 USD/VND projection to 25,900 from 25,700, reflecting the government’s focus on supporting growth and a higher tolerance for inflation at 5 per cent in 2025.

“The SBV has also raised the daily fixing and upper foreign exchange ceiling rate, allowing greater foreign exchange volatility. This coincides with major changes in Vietnam’s government policy, which could cut and streamline anywhere from 4-20 per cent of public sector employees, while authorities plan around 1.5 per cent of GDP in social support measures to aid the transition.”

Regarding the full-year exchange rate outlook, MUFG Bank forecasts USD/VND to approach 26,000 in 2025, charting a modest path while acknowledging other offsetting structural factors.

“While we continue to expect Vietnam to be in the crosshairs of the new US administration due to its large and growing trade surplus with the US, we highlight several reasons for optimism,” stated the report.

“Firstly, Vietnam has expanded its global export market share, not just in the US but worldwide, since the trade war began. Secondly, the country is moving up the value chain, increasing domestic value-added and export complexity. Lastly, we anticipate the US tariffs on China to remain higher and rise at a faster pace than those on Vietnam under the US administration.”

According to the National Statistics Office, Vietnam recorded its first trade deficit since May 2024 in February, with imports surging by 40 per cent year-over-year. Meanwhile, the State Treasury conducted three rounds of USD purchases from commercial banks, totalling $500 million, further tightening foreign exchange liquidity and adding pressure on the exchange rate.

“In this context, SBV has intervened by continuously raising the central exchange rate, widening the foreign exchange trading band,” said Tran Thi Khanh Hien, head of Research at MB Securities. “Since the start of this month, the central rate has increased by over VND400, equivalent to a 1.6 per cent adjustment, substantial compared to the VND487 rise for the whole of 2024. Additionally, the SBV has abandoned its previous hard cap of 25,450 VND/USD in the interbank market. This move signals that the SBV is accepting greater exchange rate volatility to reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves.”

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Carbon labels: a gateway to high-value global markets

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In an era where sustainability is not just a choice but a requirement, carbon labelling is emerging as a crucial factor for exporters.

Carbon labels: a gateway to high-value global markets
Vu Trung Kien, director Climate Change Resilience Centre

Countries like the US and the European Union are implementing stringent carbon regulations, such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and increasing scrutiny on supply chain emissions.

Vietnamese businesses that fail to adopt carbon labelling risk losing access to lucrative markets. However, those that proactively integrate carbon footprint transparency into their products can gain a competitive advantage, enhance brand reputation, and secure long-term profitability.

Across the world, forward-thinking countries have embraced carbon labelling as a strategic tool for trade success. These efforts have not only helped businesses comply with regulations but have also opened doors to new investment and consumer markets.

Japan has implemented a government-backed carbon labelling programme that allows companies to display detailed carbon footprint information on their products. This has strengthened consumer trust and made Japanese goods more attractive in environmentally conscious markets such as the EU and North America.

The South Korean government incentivises businesses to adopt carbon labelling through tax benefits and green export support schemes. Companies that participate gain access to new trading partners, particularly in Europe, where sustainable supply chains are becoming the norm. Thailand, a key competitor to Vietnam, has integrated carbon labelling across industries such as food processing, textiles, and electronics. Thai exporters, particularly in agriculture, now benefit from preferential treatment in European supermarkets and trade agreements.

These case studies highlight an important lesson: carbon labelling is not just about compliance – it is a business strategy that enhances market access, builds consumer confidence, and future-proofs exports.

For businesses in Vietnam, waiting until carbon labelling becomes a legal requirement would be a mistake. Many international corporations have already set ambitious sustainability targets, requiring suppliers to provide verifiable carbon footprint data. Voluntary carbon labelling can position Vietnamese enterprises as reliable, future-ready partners.

It works by companies conducting a life cycle assessment to measure emissions from production to disposal. Products are labelled with a carbon footprint score, helping consumers and businesses make informed choices. Labels are often verified by third-party certifiers to ensure credibility and compliance with global standards.

The benefits include a boost for green supply chains. Companies like Nestlé and Unilever prioritise suppliers that provide carbon footprint transparency. Vietnamese food and beverage exporters can gain an edge by aligning with such demands.

Businesses with carbon-reduction strategies attract funding from international banks and investors that focus on increasing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investment.

It also leads to improved consumer trust and higher sales. Studies indicate that climate-conscious consumers prefer labelled products. In markets like the EU, organic rice, seafood, and textiles from carbon-labelled brands command higher prices.

For Vietnamese companies looking to integrate carbon labelling into their strategy, a step-by-step approach can make the transition smooth and effective.

Pilot carbon labelling programmes in key sectors are critical, with a focus on industries where carbon labelling is already gaining momentum, such as textiles, seafood, agriculture, and furniture.

The process must start with one or two high-export products and conduct a carbon footprint analysis to understand emissions sources. Industry associations must also work with international partners to ensure the label aligns with EU and US standards.

Collaboration with certification bodies is also key, and partnering with recognised organisations such as the Carbon Trust (UK), TÜV Rheinland (Germany), or SGS (Switzerland) for certification is advised, as is engaging with Vietnamese regulatory bodies to advocate for government incentives similar to South Korea’s model.

Another vital part of the process is to leverage green financing and government incentives to access ESG-linked loans and grants that support supply chain improvements. Alongside this, there needs to be a move to propose carbon labelling incentive programmes through the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry or the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

The future of Vietnam’s export competitiveness is green. The world is moving towards sustainable trade, and carbon-labelling is no longer optional for businesses that want to thrive in international markets. By learning from successful global initiatives, Vietnamese companies can turn carbon transparency into an economic advantage rather than a compliance burden.

The time to act is now. Companies that lead in carbon labelling will not only future-proof their businesses but also shape Vietnam’s reputation as a responsible trade leader.

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Industrial parks in Binh Duong increase FDI attraction by 232%

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In the first quarter of 2025, an additional 588 million USD in foreign direct investment (FDI) poured into Binh Duong Province’s industrial parks, marking a 232% increase compared to the same period in 2024 and reaching 53.43% of the 2025 annual plan, as reported by the provincial Management Board of Industrial Parks on March 26.

Of the 588 million in FDI USD invested in industrial parks during the first quarter, there were 25 new investment projects with a total registered capital of more than 60.2 million USD and 26 projects with additional capital adjustments, contributing nearly 528 million USD in increased capital.

With this positive investment attraction in the first quarter, industrial parks in Binh Duong have so far attracted 3,252 active projects, including 2,561 FDI projects with total registered capital of 31.57 billion USD and 691 domestic investment projects with total registered capital of 93.664 trillion VND.

According to the Management Board of Industrial Parks in Binh Duong, 10 new projects have become operational in the first quarter. Currently, the province’s industrial parks have 2,706 active business and production projects, including 507 domestic projects and 2,199 FDI projects.

With effective operations, the estimated business and production targets for the first quarter of 2025 in the province’s industrial parks exceeded 11 billion USD, increasing by 7.72% compared to the same period last year and reaching 31.49% of the annual plan. Export turnover surpassed 6.34 billion USD, up 9.22% year on year, achieving 25.36% of the annual plan. Taxes and budget contributions reached nearly 175.4 million USD, increasing by 10.23% year on year and fulfilling 25% of the annual target.

Binh Duong currently has 29 industrial parks with a total planned area of 12,746 hectares. Of which, 28 industrial parks are already operational, covering a total of 12,046 hectares.

According to the Binh Duong Provincial Master Plan for 2021-2030, with a vision to 2050, which was approved by the prime minister, the province is planned to develop 48 to 50 industrial parks with a total planned area of 25,000 hectares.

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Techcombank partners with Vingroup on new life insurance venture

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Techcombank is to set up a new subsidiary in the insurance field via capital contributions and share purchases, according to an announcement from the bank on March 23.

Techcombank partners with Vingroup on new life insurance venture

TCLife will have a charter capital of VND1.3 trillion ($50.7 million). Techcombank plans to contribute VND1.04 trillion to hold 80 per cent of the new company. The remaining 20 per cent stake will be held by Vingroup and other partners.

After its first five years of operation, TCLife is expected to generate a net revenue of VND1.19 trillion ($46.4 million) with a profit margin equivalent to 23.4 per cent.

Techcombank believes that the insurance company will help them increase their net assets, thereby improving their position in the financial market. TCLife’s total assets are estimated to reach VND728 billion ($28.4 million) in the first year and VND16.1 trillion ($628 million) in the fifth year.

Vietnam is still in its golden population period, with more than half of the population of working age. The contribution of life insurance to Vietnam’s GDP is still modest at 1.2 per cent.

In addition, research by market research firm Cimigo covering 2017–2022 shows that the proportion of families with a monthly income of $500 – $999 increased by 67 per cent, while families with a monthly income of over $1,000 grew by 378 per cent. With increased financial capability, along with heightened awareness of financial instruments, life insurance products should remain popular for the foreseeable future.

The fluctuations in the life insurance market have opened up opportunities for companies with a digital orientation in consulting and after-sales services.

Techcombank and Manulife agreed to discontinue their exclusive distribution partnership last October, which began in 2013. Through this distribution partnership, the two companies collaborated to successfully provide life and health insurance solutions to their customers.

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