Vietnam and ASEAN member states are jointly deploying measures to boost the region’s economy, with a focus laid on completing the upgrade of a regional agreement to expand trade and investment.
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ASEAN states unite for future economic stability |
At last week’s ASEAN Future Forum 2025 in Hanoi, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar bin Ibrahim stated that member states need to further cement cooperation, especially in trade and investment, amid ongoing global risks such as the US-China trade war and the US’s new tariff policies.
“Overdependence on any single market will cause risks to ASEAN member states,” he said.
One of the solutions heard at the event is that efforts are to be made to agree the upgrade of the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) this year.
ASEAN ministers tasked the negotiating committee for the upgrade with expediting and concluding discussions on the outstanding issues by March 31. Following this, a legal review process will commence, aiming for ASEAN countries to sign the upgrade agreement during the ASEAN Summit in November.
Vietnam became an ASEAN member in 1995 and began following what became the ATIGA soon afterwards. Under the deal, ASEAN member countries grant each other preferential treatment equivalent to or more favourable than the benefits given to partner countries in the free trade agreements ASEAN has signed.
Beyond tariff commitments, the agreement also covers a wide range of areas, including the elimination of non-tariff barriers, rules of origin, trade facilitation, customs, standards and conformity, and sanitary and phytosanitary measures.
However, though the ATIGA is being upgraded to help facilitate intra-trade and investment flows, the US government’s decision to impose punitive tariffs on major trading partners will impact Southeast Asia, and the region’s export-dependent economy could face long-term repercussions, experts said.
Wider impacts
US President Donald Trump has already inflicted an additional 10 per cent on imported Chinese goods, and is seeking to place 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico after originally stalling the plan for a month. While ASEAN members will not be directly hit by such tariff increases, the plans could slow down global trade, reducing export revenues and investment inflows for ASEAN.
According to ASEAN Briefing, under consultancy firm Dezan Shira & Associates, a potential resurgence of tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, prompting Chinese firms to relocate production to ASEAN markets. This strategy would protect Chinese exports while boosting ASEAN’s role as a global manufacturing hub.
“However, ASEAN exporters, especially in electronics, textiles, and consumer goods, could face tariffs if perceived as conduits for Chinese-made products,” ASEAN Briefing said. “Vietnam’s electronics and textile exports, Malaysia’s semiconductor production, and Indonesia’s automotive parts sector may come under scrutiny. To avoid such risks, ASEAN economies must diversify export markets and strengthen regional trade agreements.”
Carlyle A. Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales, said that there are two types of Trump tariffs that could affect Vietnam.
“The first is a direct tariff on Vietnamese goods exported to the United States. The second is massive US tariffs on China that depress Chinese consumption for Vietnamese exports and/or lead China to dump goods on the Vietnamese market,” Thayer said.
Vietnam has already indicated it is amenable to buying more goods from the United States, including liquefied natural gas, aircraft and aircraft engines, and military aircraft and unmanned platforms.
ASEAN ministers have introduced 14 priority economic deliverables in various sectors, embracing agriculture, tourism, energy, intellectual property, small- and medium-sized enterprises, digital transformation, as well as initiatives to strengthen supply chains and narrow the development gap among ASEAN member states.
When it comes to trade, the ministers have agreed to further open markets to ensure food security and strengthen the resilience and sustainability of the regional supply chain; not use new non-tariff measures; build up foundations for intra-bloc trade facilitation to support supply chain connectivity; and utilise digital technology and commerce to support businesses.
According to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry, an upgraded ATIGA will ensure the agreement’s continued relevance amidst emerging trends, better facilitate ASEAN trade flows, advance regional economic integration, and maintain ASEAN centrality amidst a shifting global environment.
The updated version will cover tariff liberalisation, rules of origin, non-tariff measures, trade facilitation, customs, technical regulations and conformity assessment procedures, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and trade remedy measures.
The EU-ASEAN Business Council (EABC) has suggested that, regarding trade liberalisation under the ATIGA, specific measures should be explicitly included on the tariff-free treatment of reused, recycled, repaired, and remanufactured goods to speed up movement towards a circular economy in ASEAN.
“Remaining tariffs on some goods in some member states should be further eliminated to bring the ATIGA on par with other agreements that have been entered into subsequently,” the EABC said.
Under the existing ATIGA commitments, ASEAN member nations removed tariffs on 98.6 per cent of total goods and products in 2021. Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Malaysia have eliminated 99.3 per cent of tariffs, while Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam have eliminated 97.7 per cent. So far, the entire region has seen trade liberalisation.
It is suggested that balanced relationships with both the US and China position the region to attract steady foreign funding. In 2023, ASEAN recorded $230 billion in foreign direct investment, with Singapore ($159.6 billion), Indonesia ($21.6 billion), and Vietnam ($18.5 billion) as top destinations. Strengthening regional supply chains and easing business regulations will further enhance ASEAN’s attractiveness to investors.
In addition, a robust consumer base supports domestic consumption and intra-ASEAN trade, fostering resilience against external shocks.
Attractive to investors
At last week’s ASEAN Future Forum, it was reported that as ASEAN progresses towards becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2030, the region presents unmatched opportunities for investors and businesses. Proactive reforms, strategic positioning, and a growing consumer class ensure ASEAN’s continued growth despite global challenges.
Vietnam’s total two-way trade with regional nations hit $83.9 billion in 2024, with the country suffering from a $9.9 billion trade deficit. Vietnam’s export turnover from ASEAN member states stood at $37 billion, up 13.7 per cent on-year, while the country’s import turnover reached $46.9 billion, up 14.7 per cent on-year.
In the first month of 2025, bilateral trade reached $6.8 billion, with Vietnam’s exports at $2.8 billion, down 14 per cent, and imports at $4 billion – up 10.5 per cent. This means a trade deficit of $1.2 billion. ASEAN is Vietnam’s third-largest trade partner.
The ASEAN Secretariat has commended Vietnam’s investment facilitation, which will help draw in more investment both inside and outside ASEAN.
“Vietnam’s government has continued to reform and take steps to further improve the country’s investment environment, including implementing resolutions and regulatory directives on strengthening information provision, simplifying processes, and reducing administrative requirements,” the secretariat stated.
According to Vietnam’s former Ministry of Planning and Investment, cumulatively as of late January, ASEAN nations have poured a great deal of investment into Vietnam, including Singapore with total registered capital of $84.14 billion, followed by Thailand ($14.35 billion), Malaysia ($13 billion), Brunei ($981.4 million), Indonesia ($670 million), the Philippines ($624.6 million), Laos ($102.5 million), and Cambodia ($76.8 million).
Pham Minh Chinh, Prime Minister
The ASEAN Future Forum 2025 is of great importance. It is held at the time of the 10th anniversary of the formation of the ASEAN Community, the 30th anniversary of Vietnam joining ASEAN, and also the year that it will adopt the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 to bring the bloc into a new era, towards a community that is self-reliant, innovative, and people-centred.
From the five original founding members, after 60 years of development, ASEAN today has become a community of 10 countries united in diversity. It is the fifth-largest economy in the world, with the leading growth rate; the centre of regional and global integration processes; and a bridge of dialogue and cooperation for peace and development, actively contributing to shaping a new world order.
In order for ASEAN to maintain its strong development momentum and realise its set goals, we propose three strategic priorities: strengthening ASEAN’s strategic autonomy through enhancing ASEAN’s solidarity and centrality; building an economically resilient ASEAN by renewing traditional growth drivers while encouraging new growth drivers, especially in sci-tech, innovation, and digital transformation; and upholding ASEAN’s values and identity, such as the spirit of harmony, unity in diversity, and respect for differences.
In addition, ASEAN also needs to make breakthroughs in action. Specifically, it is necessary to build a more flexible, effective, and responsible decision-making mechanism; encourage public-private cooperation to mobilise all resources for regional development; and further enhance connectivity within ASEAN, particularly in infrastructure connectivity, people-to-people exchanges, and institutional harmonisation for transparency.
Its three-decade participation in ASEAN has asserted Vietnam’s correct strategic vision. ASEAN has become a strategic space and a natural development environment for Vietnam. For its part, Vietnam has always been an active and responsible member in consolidating solidarity, enhancing the central role, and encouraging the sustainable development of ASEAN.
There is a proverb in Vietnam: ‘One tree alone cannot make a hill, but three trees together make a mountain’. It is necessary to underline the solidarity, unity, cooperation, vitality, and strategic value of ASEAN.
Vietnam will continue to work with member countries, partners, and international friends to continue to write new, proud pages in ASEAN’s development journey. |