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Developing countries require support on green transition

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On the first days of the inauguration at the end of January, the new US President Donald Trump signed three executive orders that could affect green trends globally.

Developing countries require support on green transition
Quang Tran, director of Investment and Research, NAI Vietnam

The US has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, for the second time. In 2017, Trump signed a similar decree and then Joe Biden reversed it. However, during Trump’s first term, carbon emissions decreased and then increased slightly in 2021-2022 when Biden took office. This set a precedent for other countries to protect short-term economic interests instead of prioritising long-term environmental benefits.

The US has cancelled electric vehicle (EV) targets and revised emissions regulations. The 50 per cent EV production target by 2030 is an important driving force for carmakers to shift to clean technology. By reversing this target, the US government will cause the industry to lose the incentive to innovate, prolonging dependence on fossil fuels.

Since Q3/2024, major carmakers worldwide have adjusted their plans to extend the deadline for all EV production by 3-5 years. While China is still accelerating, the US-China trade conflict will cause many difficulties for the EV industry in the next four years. This could lead to the loosening of standards, and increasing emissions from the transport sector, one of the largest contributors to climate change.

The US is boosting oil production, which is also a consequence of the cancellation of the EV manufacturing policy. The increase in fossil fuel exploitation increases dependence on oil and natural gas, slows the development of renewable energy, increases greenhouse gas emissions, and puts additional pressure on global emission reduction targets.

The increase in US oil production could create downward fluctuations in global energy prices, especially if the Russia-Ukraine conflict reaches some sort of temporary peace settlement this year.

However, there is no need to be too pessimistic. Although the US is still the world’s economic leader, its influence is being shared by other major economies. Surely, the US will slow down the pace of the global clean energy transition.

However, states such as California, New York, and New Mexico as well as large corporations can still maintain their commitment to greening through local policies and long-term business strategies. This partly mitigates the negative impact of the executive order and still promotes the development of green technology, but not as synchronously as before.

In Asia, China is strengthening its role. It will continue to boost green technology production and take advantage of the US withdrawal to increase exports of renewable energy technology. Being in the BRICS bloc, China has some advantages to break out, although the US will try to restrain it with economic measures.

Going forward, China will not confront directly but use roundabout ways for its goals, for example, the Belt and Road Initiative to utilise the construction of clean energy infrastructure in developing countries.

Developed countries such as Japan and South Korea remain committed to greening. However, they will be more cautious and consider the reactions of powerful countries before making strong statements.

In Europe, geopolitical instability have disrupted the greening process in the short term, due to temporary dependence on fossil fuels. However, in the long term, pressure to reduce dependence on Russia will accelerate the move to renewables. Europe will still play a pioneering role in green tech research and development.

The big challenge is to maintain internal consensus among member states regarding the allocation of energy transition costs as the gap between European economies is very significant. Germany, France, and Nordic countries will have to convince weaker countries to follow the long-term path, while these large countries are struggling in the short term.

The US moves will weaken international cooperation in the environment issues, which will significantly affect Vietnam. As a developing country, Vietnam needs a lot of financial and technological support from developed countries to achieve sustainable development goals in the national strategy on green growth towards 2030. If international support for renewable energy projects decreases, the transition to a green economy will struggle.

Vietnam’s energy demand has increased due industrialisation and urbanisation. Specifically, in the past 10 years, the volume of coal imports has increased by 20 times while oil has reversed from a trade surplus to a trade deficit. The US administration’s oil exploitation policy and determination to end wars in Europe and the Middle East will reduce oil prices on the global market, thereby benefiting Vietnam in the short term by reducing energy import costs.

However, falling fossil fuel prices will reduce the competitiveness of renewable energy, making it harder for domestic projects to call for investment.

The US loosening of emission regulations and cancellation of EV production targets may have an indirect impact on Vietnam’s exports. Industries assembling and manufacturing EV components, and environmentally-friendly products will be at risk of declining global demand. Once the US market is not interested in green products as much as before, Vietnamese businesses aiming for sustainable development will find it challenging.

The new US policies will have a significant impact on the global green trend. However, as an irreversible trend, the global green economy will grow strongly in regions with strong policy support like Europe, and China. The US will not be left out of the game. After a period of protectionism for its domestic extractive industry, the US will re-enter the race following the business style favoured by the current president.

The race between the US, Europe, and China in green technology will determine the direction of the green economy. China, backed by global initiatives, will consolidate its position in green technology. Europe, despite geopolitical challenges, will maintain its pioneering role in renewable energy research.

Vietnam remains committed to green economic development and energy transition. The government has issued plans such as encouraging renewable energy, developing clean technology, and enhancing resource efficiency to enhance resilience to global fluctuations.

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Industrial production on the mend: Deputy Minister

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Vietnam’s industrial production has continued its rosy signs since late 2023, promising a bright prospect for the country in the time ahead, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Phan Thi Thang said at the Government’s regular press conference in Hanoi on August 5.

According to the official, Vietnam’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in July 2024 reached 54.7 points, the highest since November 2018, with output increasing sharply thanks to increasing new orders for four consecutive months.

The index industrial production (IIP) in July grew by 0.7% over the previous month and 11.2% year-on-year, Thang said, noting the index saw increases in 60 provinces and centrally-run cities in the first seven months of this year.

She attributed the result to improvements in the production capacity of domestic businesses that have also shown their readiness to optimise opportunities to access new markets in the time to come.

Additionally, the deputy minister said, support policies and the drastic instructions of the Government and the Prime Minister in public investment disbursement and the implementation of key industrial projects have helped consolidate the confidence of both domestic and foreign firms.

The official also pointed to a range of challenges such as intrinsic weaknesses, regional and global volatilities, the risk of global supply chain disruptions, and the reliance on some export-import markets, along with the pressure of trade remedy investigations.

Given this, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will speed up public investment disbursement, review obstacles to key projects in electricity, oil and gas, processing and manufacturing, and minerals in order to soon put them into operation, and continue its cooperation with FDI firms and big enterprises at home and abroad as well as international organisations to step up connectivity and improve capacity for domestic suppliers.

The ministry will also encourage the purchase of home-made goods, and seek new markets for key exports, Thang added.

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Petrovietnam to complete $1.5 bln Long Phu 1 thermal power plant in 2027

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State-owned energy giant Petrovietnam aims to restart the idling Long Phu 1 thermal power project, located in the Mekong Delta province of Soc Trang, and complete it in 2027, according to the draft amendments to the power development plan VIII (PDP VIII).

Petrovietnam was assigned as investor of the $1.5 billion coal-fired power project in 2010. In 2014, Petrovietnam signed deals to assign Russia’s Power Machine and its technical arm Petrovietnam Technical Service Corporation (PTSC) as engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractors.

Long Phu 1 thermal power project in Soc Trang province, Mekong Delta. southern Vietnam. Photo courtesy of PetroTimes magazine.

Long Phu 1 thermal power project in Soc Trang province, Mekong Delta. southern Vietnam. Photo courtesy of PetroTimes magazine.

In January 2018, when the project reached 78% completion, the United States had deployed sanctions against Russia due to the Crimea issues, leading to challenges in project implementation. In March 2019, Power Machine stopped construction activities at the project site.

According to the ministry’s document, Petrovietnam is restarting the project and amending the project’s feasibility study.

Long Phu 1 is one of five under-construction coal-fired power plants in Vietnam, the ministry noted. The others are the 1,330 MW Vung Ang II, 110 MW Na Duong II, 1,403 MW Quang Trach I, and 650 MW An Khanh-Bac Giang.

Meanwhile, five projects are facing challenges, namely the 600 MW Cong Thanh, 1,200 MW Nam Dinh I, 1,320 MW Quang Tri, 1,980 MW Vinh Tan III, and 2,120 MW Song Hau II.

The Cong Thanh is waiting for approval to use LNG as feedstock, while Quang Tri, Vinh Tan III, and Song Hau II have stopped or do not have any investor yet. Nam Dinh I is progressing to begin construction later this year.

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Investing in human resources for cultural industries

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After more than seven years of implementing the Strategy for the Development of Cultural Industries in Vietnam to 2020, with a vision to 2030, Vietnam’s cultural industries have made new strides, making positive contributions to the country’s GDP growth.

The production value of Vietnam’s cultural industries in the 2018-2022 period reached about 1,059 trillion VND (USD 44 billion). In 2022, the contribution of cultural industries to GDP reached 4.04%. In large cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, cultural industries have contributed about 4% of the local GRDP. Many cities have officially joined the UNESCO Creative Cities Network such as Hanoi, Hoi An, and Da Lat.

However, according to Tran Thi Phuong Lan from the Department of Culture and Arts under the Party Central Committee’s Commission on Communication and Education, the cultural industry has not yet developed to be commensurate with the country’s distinct potential, outstanding opportunities, and competitive advantages.

Vietnam still lacks specific and appropriate mechanisms and policies to attract capital and resources for the comprehensive development of cultural industries. The connection and coordination between sectors in the development of cultural industries is still not tight, has not promoted the commercial element in cultural products; there are still few large literary and artistic products and works with high ideological and artistic value, etc.

On August 29, 2024, the prime minister signed and issued Directive No.30/CT-TTg on the development of Vietnam’s cultural industries, meeting the expectations of those working in this field.

The prime minister requested ministries, branches and localities to thoroughly grasp and further raise awareness of the position, role, importance and value of cultural industries for socio-economic development and promotion of Vietnamese culture; to promote the responsibility of leaders in directing the development of cultural industries; to proactively implement strategies in a focused and key direction; to issue necessary mechanisms and policies to support, encourage and promote the development of cultural industries in the coming period.

Many experts and managers believed that the most important thing that cultural industries need is human resources, because this is a vital and key factor. Localities need to issue mechanisms and policies to ensure and attract resources, contributing to the construction and development of culture and people in each region, closely linked to the strengths of cultural industries.

In Da Nang, since 2015, the city leaders at all levels have been striving to implement the Party and State’s policies and guidelines in placing culture on par with economics, politics, and society. The city has identified the development of cultural industries along with the construction and completion of the cultural market in 12 areas, focusing on: advertising, software and entertainment games, design, cinema, performing arts, and cultural tourism.

However, the development of cultural industries in Da Nang still has some limitations, with human resources being limited in both quantity and professional quality. The preferential treatment policy for people working in culture and arts has not been given due attention.

Nguyen Thi Hoi An, Deputy Director of the Department of Culture and Sports of Da Nang City, said: “Da Nang has proposed a roadmap to upgrade the Da Nang College of Culture and Arts. At the same time, we focus on training human resources for the cultural industry, improving the quality of training at specialised schools; building standard curricula; investing in teaching and learning equipment in a synchronous manner in the stages of art, technology, production management, distribution, preservation, and communication; and encouraging and sending qualified staff to study and gain experience in countries with developed cultural industries.”

Nguyen Thi Thanh Thuy, Deputy Director of the Department of Culture and Sports of Ho Chi Minh City, shared: The city has been focusing on training human resources for cultural industries through schools, linking with businesses, and cooperating with international partners.

In addition, the city has reviewed and supplemented land funds to the city planning to build cultural industrial parks and film studios; focused on building a network of creative, branded businesses that are competitive in areas where Vietnam has potential and strengths such as software, handicrafts, performing arts, etc., to create many high-quality products. At the same time, there should be reasonable policies and regimes for human resources in the cultural field.

Associate Professor, Dr Do Lenh Hung Tu, Chairman of the Vietnam Cinema Association, said: In the stage of training and developing the film human resources, especially high-quality human resources, the establishment of a specific mechanism to discover, nurture, use and reward talents is extremely important. At the national level, the State needs to have special treatment regimes so that talents can fully develop their capacity and contribute to society, while at the same time creating more favourable conditions for professional organisations to promote young creative activities, create playgrounds, and “talent nursery” competitions.

In the immediate future, it is necessary to promote specialised training in the film industry; especially training a team of film managers with sufficient qualifications and capacity to meet the requirements in the period when cinema is striving to become a key cultural industry.

Highly qualified human resources are a decisive factor for the development of cultural industries. Therefore, it is necessary to effectively implement policies to attract and promote talents, provide incentives and honour individuals with good works and positive influence in society; support the transfer of knowledge, skills, practical know-how, etc., related to the fields of cultural industries; train and foster a team of managers and enforcers of copyright, related rights, cultural and tourism human resources; and form a team of in-depth and interdisciplinary experts.

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