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Economic expert shares view on 8 per cent GDP target

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Phan Duc Hieu, senior expert and member of the National Assembly Economic Committee, examines ways to achieve a GDP growth target of 8 per cent or more this year, as set by the government, and envisions the possible obstacles ahead.
Economic expert shares view on 8 per cent GDP target
Phan Duc Hieu

How do you feel about the recent National Assembly (NA) discussion on the socioeconomic development plan for 2025 and the ambitious targets that have been set?

It demonstrates the government’s strong commitment to reaching or exceeding 8 per cent GDP growth this year, while also reflecting its determination to focus resources on materialising the target, meaning that more impactful measures must be introduced.

The previous measures set by the NA and the government to realise 6.5-7 per cent GDP growth, striving to reach 7.5 per cent growth, remain unchanged.

However, with the new growth target expanded by a further 1 per cent, the government must present a series of additional measures that need to be specific and clear.

A policy package for growth stimulation would be a smart move, following a principle of ensuring swift enforcement, without incurring any inflationary pressures.

What priority should be given to policies that may stimulate growth?

First, raise income and savings for people, from there encourage consumption in the community. It may be necessary to speed up the revision of the Law on Personal Income Tax, perhaps reducing tax burdens for each dependent, helping people to save more.

Second, review tax policies with the aim of supporting businesses. So long as they’re not absolutely necessary, any proposals to increase taxes or business-related fees should be avoided for now. This is a critical factor in improving business competitiveness. If tax laws must still be amended, long-term goals should be set, with the application deadline postponed by another several years.

In addition, policies related to fees, charges, and exemptions should be reviewed for extension or new measures introduced. For example, policies on reducing land use fees should be extended, and possibly reconsidered for higher reductions as land costs increase.

Third, it is necessary to review and amend regulations that increase costs for businesses. For instance, the regulation requiring a deposit when importing scrap paper for production. Businesses report that a 20 per cent deposit is currently required for every shipment, which is a significant amount for companies in need of funds for other aspects of their operation, especially since there are rarely any violations.

Can’t the focus be shifted to be on risk management, rather than applying it rigidly to every shipment and every business?

For businesses with a long record of compliance, why not reduce or waive the deposit for them? Or uniformly reducing the deposit for all businesses. Doing so would release more capital for production and improve efficiency.

Similarly, procedures for tax refunds should continue to be improved to avoid delays.

What are the main challenges in policy implementation for institutional reforms in Vietnam, and how can they be addressed?

The challenge lies in the possible delays in policy implementation and the effectiveness of executing the solutions that have been proposed.

Since 2024, institutional reforms have made significant progress, reflected in the laws passed by the NA carrying various amendments and resolutions that have resolved several legal difficulties and accelerated the investment implementation of numerous ventures. However, challenges still persist.

I believe we need to find every possible way to minimise those delays, create better opportunities for business faster than before. Localities have been empowered to make decisions, take action, and take responsibility, bringing policies into being. Now, they must swiftly turn policies into concrete actions and get to work immediately.

The difference this year is that specific growth targets have been set for each locality, industry, and sector instead of a general target. As a result, the government, localities, and ministries clearly see their responsibilities and show determination.

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Rubber industry to bounce back in 2025

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Vietnam’s rubber industry is poised for strong growth in 2025, driven by rising rubber prices, expanding production, and increased export opportunities, despite potential challenges from global trade policies and shifting market dynamics.

Phuoc Hoa Rubber JSC (PHR) is aiming to extract 12,800 tonnes of rubber in 2025, for total revenues of over $59 million, including around $51.5 million from rubber sales.

Rubber industry to bounce back in 2025
Photo: baodautu.vn

The company projects an average selling price of $1,750 per tonne, post-tax profit of $9.7 million, and a minimum cash dividend payout ratio of 10 per cent.

While revenue is expected to decline by 3.8 per cent on-year, post-tax profit is projected to increase by nearly 31 per cent. The company plans to optimise land use in Binh Duong province to enhance operational efficiency and exceed its revenue and profit targets by at least 10 per cent.

For the first quarter of the year, PHR has set a target of extracting of 1,920 tonnes of dry latex, processed rubber output of 3,420 tonnes, and sales of 4,900 tonnes, with an average price of $2,120 per tonne, generating $10.3 million in revenue and close to $1.2 million in pre-tax profit.

MB Securities anticipates that Phuoc Hoa Rubber’s 2025 revenue may dwindle by 3 per cent compared to 2024, but post-tax profit could grow by 10 per cent, driven by sustained high selling prices.

By 2026, the company’s revenue and net profit are expected to increase by 2 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.

Dong Phu Rubber JSC’s high-yield rubber plantations produce over two tonnes per hectare and are expected to support growth in both rubber extraction and industrial real estate.

The company’s undertaking in Bac Dong Phu Industrial Park expansion, encompassing 317 hectares (ha), was approved for investment on January 16, and is anticipated to generate cash flow over the next two years.

Meanwhile, Vietnam Rubber Group’s (GVR) plantations generate an average yield of 1.5 tonnes per ha, yet the company’s 2025 outlook remains promising due to projected high rubber prices in the first half of the year.

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries expects the demand for rubber to remain stable, particularly in China, Vietnam’s primary market for rubber exports.

An Binh Securities projects GVR’s revenue to grow by 6.6 per cent on-year to $1.12 billion this year, while post-tax profit is expected to rise by 4.7 per cent to $176.3 million.

As for Tay Ninh Rubber (TRC), the company is managing over 7,000ha of rubber plantations which continue to achieve high yields of over 2 tonnes per ha.

In Cambodia, its plantations, established in 2014, are entering peak production, yielding around 1.3-1.4 tonnes per hectare.

In Laos, the company oversees more than 10,000ha, with the majority entering peak harvest season between 2024 and 2029, expected to yield over 2 tonnes per hectare.

Over the past month, PHR shares rose by 25 per cent, TRC shares by 9.2 per cent, GVR shares by 6.2 per cent, Song Be Rubber shares by 6.1 per cent, and DakLak Rubber Investment JSC shares by 8.2 per cent.

Several stocks recorded substantial gains on-year, with Tan Bien Rubber JSC shares rose 123 per cent, Tay Ninh Rubber JSC grew by 151 per cent, and Dak Lak Rubber JSC went up 109 per cent.

Market analysts predict rubber prices will continue their upward trend in 2025, benefiting the natural rubber sector.

MB Securities forecasts that prices will remain elevated through the second quarter of 2025, with an estimated annual increase of 5-10 per cent compared to 2024.

In the US, a declining reliance on rubber imports from China, Canada, and Mexico has created new opportunities for Vietnamese rubber exporters, who increased their exports to 29,200 tonnes in 2024, valued at $50.6 million, raising the market share from 1.5 per cent in 2023 to 1.7 per cent.

As global trade dynamics continue to evolve, Vietnam’s rubber industry remains well-positioned to leverage rising prices, supply constraints in competing markets, and increasing demand from key trade partners.

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ACCA event highlights technology’s role in sustainability practices

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The commitment of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) to supporting firms in their development was evidenced at a conference on technology’s role in applying sustainability practices that took place in Ho Chi Minh City on March 12.

The event presented key topics including international standards and technological solutions for carbon emissions’ management, environmental, social, and governance policy evaluation based on global standards, and the application of technology in optimising operational costs.

ACCA event highlights technology's role in sustainability practices
ACCA event highlights technology’s role in sustainability practices

The conference served as a platform for future-oriented businesses to share their successes and challenges while fostering collaboration among those committed to sustainability.

During the conference, Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia, delivered in-depth insights into ACCA’s role in supporting businesses in building sustainable development capabilities.

Citing 2024 trade figures, Varma noted that Vietnam’s import-export turnover maintained unprecedented levels over the past 40 years, supported by the enforcement of over 17 trade agreements.

Vietnam-EU trade exceeded $67 billion, with numerous domestic enterprises integrating into European and global supply chains.

“Implementing sustainability reporting is imperative for Vietnamese firms participating in global supply chains to comply with Europe’s mandatory sustainability disclosure regulations. The key challenge is how businesses can effectively implement sustainability reporting with existing resources while meeting international standards,” said Varma.

Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia speech at the conference. Photo: ACCA Vietnam
Ren Varma, head of Mainland Southeast Asia, ACCA. Photo: ACCA Vietnam

Representatives from various other organisations, such as VACPA, FPT, Unilever, HDBank, PwC, and the University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City shared their experiences in leveraging technology for sustainability.

These real-world case studies enabled participants to gain practical insights into how best to apply technology to sustainable management, while understanding the essential competencies required for effective implementation.

At the event, experts reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing capabilities and professional expertise in achieving national sustainable development goals and the target of Net-Zero by 2050.

Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia with other speakers at the conference. Photo: ACCA Vietnam
Photo: ACCA Vietnam

ACCA pledged its continued support by launching the Professional Diploma in Sustainability (ProDipSust) across more than 180 countries, including Vietnam. This initiative aims to equip professionals with the necessary expertise to implement sustainable business practices.

ProDipSust not only provides in-depth knowledge on sustainability but also guides businesses on practical applications, from understanding international frameworks and regulations to strategic management, sustainability reporting, and assurance.

Recognised as a globally standardised knowledge framework, this diploma plays a crucial role in strengthening corporate sustainability governance, ensuring transparency, and complying with international standards.

Beyond offering training programmes, ACCA actively collaborates with leading organisations to drive sustainable development initiatives.

Beyond offering training activities, ACCA collaborates with major organisations to drive sustainability initiatives. In this seminar, ACCA Vietnam, in partnership with VACPA and PwC Vietnam, established a highly practical forum to help Vietnamese firms align with international standards and devise effective sustainability strategies.

Ren Varma underscored the critical role of finance and accounting professionals in advancing sustainable development, saying, “Financial expertise is not just about financial reporting, it plays a fundamental role in shaping sustainable strategies. Finance professionals are responsible for integrating sustainability initiatives into business models, accurately measuring their impact, and transparently communicating them to stakeholders. ACCA’s certification serves as a vital tool for businesses and individuals to enhance their expertise in this field.”

“With a strong commitment to fostering sustainability competencies, ACCA will continue to support businesses and financial professionals on their journey towards a responsible and sustainable economy,” he added.

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Ho Chi Minh City looks to develop potential of Saigon River

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Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.

Ho Chi Minh City will lead toward the sea and along Saigon river

Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.

Photo: Le Toan

Talking with VIR on March 4, Doan Manh Thang, director of water and resilience at Royal HaskoningDHV Vietnam, said the Saigon River has great potential but has not been exploited properly. The plan will map out a waterway from Cu Chi to the city centre.

Royal HaskoningDHV is the leader of a consortium that includes Boston Consulting Group, Roland Berger, the Ministry of Construction, and ACUD Consult that has been tasked with developing this plan which was approved by the prime minister on December 31, 2024.

The plan aims to develop Ho Chi Minh City into a hub of high-quality human resources, modern services, and advanced industries, pioneering in the green economy, the digital economy, and a digital society. It will also maintain its position as Vietnam’s leading centre for economy, finance, commerce, culture, education, and science and technology, with deep international integration.

“We can build service areas such as marinas and commercial centres along the river, alongside green spaces,” Thang said.

Moreover, a metro line from the city centre to Can Gio Island could act as the driving force for the city to reach double-digit growth, he confirmed.

Can Gio Port, meanwhile, is strategically located opposite Cai Mep-Thi Vai Port – the largest international port in Vietnam. However, it is only operating at 50 per cent capacity. The government has decided to upgrade Can Gio Port to become an international transit centre, with an estimated investment of $4 billion. The port is expected to handle 10 per cent of Vietnam’s imports and exports, of which 90 per cent will be international transshipment.

According to Phan Van Mai, newly appointed Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee and former Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, the city will strive for regional GDP growth of 8.5-9.0 per year until 2030.

“To effectively implement the plan, the city needs to mobilise resources, attract investment, develop human resources, and apply science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and environmental protection,” Mai said.

Meanwhile, Thang said that the biggest bottleneck in implementing this plan is the lack of mechanisms to entice capital.

“Public investment is the seed capital to stimulate investment from other economic sectors. In fact, many investors are interested, but the mechanisms for investment must be more detailed,” he said.

A resolution issued in June 2023 grants special mechanisms for the development of Ho Chi Minh City. Meanwhile, in February 2025, the National Assembly issued another resolution for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City to invest and develop metro systems. On that basis, Ho Chi Minh City will invest simultaneously and complete seven routes with a total length of 355km within 10 years.

“Initially, the state will have to spend money because it will be difficult to attract investment, but when it starts to take shape, private investors will be looking to spend money to build infrastructure. This would remove the bottleneck, but still requires appropriate policies,” Thang said.

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