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USD to strengthen further following the start of tariffs escalation

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A more cautious Fed when it comes to rate cuts in 2025, tariff and China uncertainties will likely keep USD/VND anchored to the upside. Overall, UOB‘s updated USD/VND forecasts are 25,600 in Q1/2025, 25,800 in Q2/2025, 26,000 in Q3/2025 and 25,800 in Q4/2025, write the Singporean bank’s analysts.

Most Asia FX had a positive start to 2025 as the much-feared day-one Trump tariffs against China did not materialize. Photo courtesy of Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te (Monetary-Financial Market) magazine.

Most Asia FX had a positive start to 2025 as the much-feared day-one Trump tariffs against China did not materialize. Photo courtesy of Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te (Monetary-Financial Market) magazine.

The new normal of constant tariff threats

The brief calm in late January following President Trump’s inauguration was finally shattered in early February by renewed threats of punitive tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China.

While at the moment of writing, both Canada and Mexico appear to have won a precious one month reprieve, the 10% tariffs against China appear to be going ahead with China announcing retaliatory measures.

President Trump’s brinksmanship tariff threats coupled with last minute negotiations against US trade partners may well be the new normal. Financial markets may be complacent in not acknowledging in full the macroeconomic effects of the tariff threats and pricing in an adequate “Tariff Risk Premium”.

Amidst the renewed rise in US inflation expectations, the US Dollar is the key beneficiary of this “Tariff Risk Premium”. We see the USD Index (DXY) rising further to 112.6 by 2Q25.

Our expectation of one 25-bps Fed rate cut this year now contrasts starkly with the anticipated 75 bps from European Central Bank (ECB), 100 bps from Bank of England (BOE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and 125 bps from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) for the rest of 2025.

This widening rate differential will be a key tailwind for the USD against its Major FX peers, anchoring further USD strength in the first half of 2025. The EUR will of course face additional pressure from the on-going tariff threat from the US. We forecast EUR/USD leading the drop to 0.98 by Q2/2025, followed by GBP/USD dropping to 1.20 and AUD/USD softer at 0.59 by 2Q25.

As for the CNY, in-between China’s growth slowdown and further escalation of tariffs to our Base Case expectation of 25%, further depreciation is a given. We maintain our forecast for USD/CNY to rise further to 7.65 by Q3/2025. Other USD/Asia FX will follow suit with highs for USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR, USD/THB and USD/VND to be registered in Q3/2025 at 1.40, 4.65, 16,900, 35.40 and 26,000 respectively.

Finally, we note that interesting developments on the bullion front, whereby the futures and LBMA price premiums against spot price has widened alongside the jump in physical gold delivery into COMEX. This confirms various industry news of outsized physical gold shipment from London and Europe into New York amidst the escalating trade tensions. This affirms the rising safe haven risk premium for gold and reinforces our positive outlook for $3,000/oz by end-2025.

It has been a wild rollercoaster ride for financial markets since the start of February. U.S. President Trump initially threatened to implement a punitive 25% trade tariffs on both Canada and Mexico on an immediate basis (with energy imports from Canada tariffed at a “preferential rate” of 10%), only to agree to delay them for a month pending further negotiations with both countries.

Both sets of tariffs against Canada and Mexico if implemented to the fullest will have significant adverse impact on both economies. Consensus estimates suggest that both Canada and Mexico’s economies will very likely slip into a recession as a result.

As for China, at the moment of writing, the world’s second biggest economy appears to have responded with retaliatory tariffs against coal, liquified natural gas, crude oil and other goods originating from the U.S. In addition, China has also announced export curbs against various rare metals. This was after the U.S. signaled that it will proceed with the blanket 10% tariff against Chinese goods into the U.S.

It is important to note that both Canada and Mexico accounted for a substantial 41% of total U.S. imports. In the energy space, both Canada and Mexico supplied as much as 75% of crude oil imported by the U.S. As a rough rule of thumb, the consensus estimate suggests that against the baseline, the US economy will take a 1% GDP hit together with a 0.5% rise in inflation.

While both Canada and Mexico may have won a temporary month-long reprieve, in our scenario analysis, our Base Case (with 55% probability) assumes that tariffs may eventually be imposed across the year till H1/2026, on imports from both countries at 25% (although we also note the non-negligible probability that tariffs may be rolled back or not be imposed if both countries accede to the demands of President Trump), including 25% tariffs on China as well.

Given these assumptions, we reiterate our Base Case scenario for U.S. GDP growth to slow to 1.8% this year and CPI inflation to rise by 0.4% point to 2.5% and China’s GDP growth to slow to 4.3%.

However, the risks to the global economy and financial markets do not stop there. There is an increasing and constant risk that U.S. President Trump may well impose tariffs against the European Union or raise tariff threats anew against key trading partners like Canada, Mexico and China. On a worst case basis, he may impose a substantial universal blanket tariff on all imports into the U.S.

This is captured in our Pessimistic Case (with 40% probability) assumption that tariffs may increase further against Mexico and Canada with China landing at a materially higher 60% and rest of world enduring a potential blanket universal tariff of about 10% to 20%. In such a scenario, U.S. GDP growth is estimated to slow to just 1%, with inflation jumping a full 1% point from baseline to 3.1%. China’s GDP growth will likely slow further to just 3.5% this year.

Going forward, financial markets and global investors will likely need to live with the constant threat of tariffs and last-minute brinksmanship negotiations in the months ahead. Such uncertainty and intra-day whipsaw are likely to be the new normal and it begs the question whether financial markets have priced in the on-going tariff threats in the form of a “Tariff Risk Premium”.

The immediate consequence of this increasing “Tariff Risk Premium” is the renewed rise in inflation expectations for the U.S. As a result, Fed Fund Futures have started to fade expectations of further rate cuts going forward, with various Federal Reserve officials now reiterating the prudent “wait and see” stance for now.

Needless to say, the U.S. follar is the key beneficiary of this “Tariff Risk Premium” and the accompanying renewed rise in US inflation expectations. In particular, two-year U.S. inflation expectation has doubled from 1.5% last November to current level of about 3.0%. Overall, the USD Index has now risen about 9% from its low of 100 before the U.S. President election last November to current level of about 109.

Our Base Case assumes that by Q3/2025, DXY will rise further towards 112.6 by Q2/2025 accompanied by EUR/USD falling below parity and USD/CNY rising to 7.65 by Q3/2025. In our Pessimistic Case scenario, the risk is that DXY will jump to 115 and USD/CNY may well rally towards 8.0. It would not be prudent to fight this trend of USD strength, at least until later this year when we can have a better gauge of the breath and scope of the tariffs and the corresponding impact on the U.S. economy.

USD to strengthen further following the start of tariffs escalation

The USD pulled back for the first time in four months in January as President Trump stopped short of swift tariff action after he was sworn in on January 20. As markets previously bought up the USD in anticipation of day-one tariff action against key trade partners such as Canda, Mexico and China, the reprieve spurred some profit taking in the US Dollar Index (DXY) which had risen to two-year highs in early January.

The brief calm in financial markets was shattered when President Trump signed off the first tariffs in his new term against Mexico, Canada and China on February 1, before agreeing to delay tariffs on Mexico and Canada by one month. However, at the moment of writing, it appears that additional tariffs against China are going ahead with China responding in kind as well. How do we navigate through this fluid tariff war? And will the USD strengthen further after stabilising in Jan?

Most Asia FX had a positive start to 2025 as the much-feared day-one Trump tariffs against China did not materialize. Even as President Trump eventually announced 10% tariffs on China goods on February 1, China’s toned-down response relative to Canada and Mexico means that the frontlines of the new trade war may be with U.S.’s immediate neighbours, a key departure from the 2018 US-China trade war. Will this translate to lesser spillover to the CNY and other Asia FX? Or is there room for further tariff escalation with China?

Brace for further Asia FX losses as we expect further ramp up in Trump’s tariffs against China

While President Trump had imposed a modest 10% tariff on Chinese imports, we think the risk of future tariff action remains high. The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) has announced on January 24 a review of the “Economic and Trade Agreement” between U.S. and China to determine whether China is acting in accordance with the commitments it made in the agreement. This may be the precursor of any tariff recommendation made to the president.

Furthermore, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reported to push for new universal tariffs on US imports to start at 2.5% and rise gradually while Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick is said to be a strong advocate for higher tariffs. There is also increasing concern that the U.S. may well ultimately revoke China’s “most favored nation” trade status.

That said, China’s responses so far has been measured and that President Trump is staging a multi-pronged extended tariff fight probably means that the immediate spillover to the CNY and rest of Asia FX may be more measured.

Although we expect further tariffs on China upon completion of the USTR investigation, our pessimistic case of 60% tariffs is unlikely to materialize yet. For now, we are also keeping to the 4.3% 2025 China GDP outlook, assuming our base case of a further increase of tariffs on China imports to 25% from 10%.

A significant China stimulus package this year may also help to cushion economic growth and lessen the extent of the CNY adjustment required. For now, we are keeping to our existing USD/CNY forecasts which are at 7.40 in Q1/2025, 7.55 in Q2/2025, 7.65 in Q3/2025 and 7.50 in Q4/2025 which were premised on our existing base case of 25% tariff on Chinese imports to the U.S.

However, in the event of 60% tariff, it would be difficult for People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to reign back more extended CNY weakness and we reiterate our view that USD/CNY may rise above the psychological 8.0 level, last seen in 2006.

There was some reprieve for the VND in January as President Trump did not impose the much-feared day-one Trump tariffs against China. Consequently, USD/VND pulled back from its record high near 25,500 to about 25,100 across Jan. The brief calm was punctured after Trump announced tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China in early February, sending USD/VND back higher towards 25,300.

A more cautious Fed when it comes to rate cuts in 2025, tariff and China uncertainties will likely keep USD/VND anchored to the upside. Overall, our updated USD/VND forecasts are 25,600 in Q1/2025, 25,800 in Q2/2025, 26,000 in Q3/2025 and 25,800 in Q4/2025.

Commodity Strategy

Rising safe haven demand for physical gold bolsters positive outlook for $3,000/oz

Something interesting is happening in the bullion market. Since the start of the year, there has been an outsized spike in gold futures delivery into COMEX, coupled with a strong jump in physical gold inventory on COMEX. There are also tell-tale signs of widening in price premium for both front month gold futures and LBMA price against spot price.

Various industry reports also suggest that there is increased delivery of physical gold from London, Europe and various parts of Asia into New York. Putting all these together, these latest developments suggest there is elevated demand for physical gold in the U.S. amidst escalating trade conflicts between U.S. and its major trading partners.

This latest development reinforces our existing view of rising safe haven demand for gold, not just from central banks for increased reserve allocation, but also from retail investors across the world as well for gold jewellry. More importantly, this rising safe haven demand for gold is also helping gold deflect away the negative pressure from the stronger USD.

As such, extending from last year’s strong rally, gold has risen further year-to-date, from $2,650/oz in early January to a new record high of $2,820/oz. The latest signs of elevated safe haven demand for gold reinforces our positive outlook for gold and we reiterate our $3,000/oz forecast by end-2025.

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Visa realignment considered towards more foreign visitors

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A more open visa policy for tourists, experts, and investors is part of the efforts to boost tourism demand and pull in foreign funding into Vietnam.

Several ministries have been instructed to study appropriate visa policies and diversify exemptions for some countries, with an added target of enticing the ultra-rich to spend more time in Vietnam, as part of a 2025 tourism stimulus programme issued in January.

At a regular government meeting on March 5, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh directed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to look at bilateral negotiations to expand visa exemptions and protection for Vietnamese citizens when travelling abroad, as well as to coordinates with authorities to simplify immigration procedures.

At the same time, the Ministry of Public Security, in particular the Vietnam Immigration Department and Department of Foreign Relations, are responsible for reviewing visas when entering the country.

The Ministry of Culture, Sports, and Tourism is tasked with further promoting the nation, attracting tourists, and managing hotels, services, and tourist agencies.

Pham Ha, CEO of travel company Lux Group, said implementing visa exemption policies could open up opportunities to attract investment from the upper class, contributing to promoting economic growth and developing luxury tourism in Vietnam.

“The tourism industry needs to have a strategy and tactics, such as the possibility of completely waiving visas for strategic partner countries like Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. Countries that have been granted visa exemptions also need to encourage stronger bilateral relations, and design and develop specialised products, such as heritage exploration products of national culture and territories worldwide,” Ha said.

Many countries have implemented so-called golden visa programmes by simplifying policies for investors and foreigners with high demand as a way to encourage investment.

Last month, the New Zealand government decided to simplify its Active Investor visa to support the recovery of its declining economy. To meet the requirements, investors must commit to have a minimum investment amount of $3.1 million into businesses in the country.

Starting from April 1, the Active Investor Plus visa programme will be simplified with an expanded scope of investment. The English language test for applicants will be abolished, while the requirement for minimum residency time for investors will also be reduced.

Last month, US President Donald Trump also put forward the idea of selling a “gold card” to wealthy foreigners, giving them the right to live and work in the US and offering a path to citizenship in exchange for a $5 million fee.

Those who own a gold card would be granted legal residency privileges similar to the green card issued to permanent residents of the US, with investment options including buying a house, establishing a company, or making contributions.

From March 1, the Vietnamese government had already begun visa exemption for citizens of Poland, Czech Republic, and Switzerland, to join 13 other nations that already enjoy the advantage. The newest exemption will initially last until the end of the year through tour programmes from Vietnamese travel companies with a temporary stay of 45 days, regardless of passport type.

Pham Hai Quynh, director of the Asian Tourism Development Institute, evaluated that 2025’s tourism stimulus strategy combined with additional visa exemptions will attract more people from new markets and increase access to potential markets for Vietnam’s tourism industry.

“Tourists from Poland, Czech Republic, and Switzerland are willing to pay for high-end resort services, and unique cultural experiences with a strong local imprint. Therefore, opening up to these markets can create many opportunities for the development of tourism and services,” Quynh said. “The decision is a positive step by the government in attracting international tourists, especially from countries with high spending potential.”

According to Vu The Binh, chairman of the Vietnam Tourism Association, investors from developed countries are also interested in coming to Vietnam to explore the market, seek partners, and participate in economic conferences combined with leisure tourism.

“Thanks to convenient visa policies, the trade connection between Vietnamese and foreign businesses will become stronger. Furthermore, this policy will likely pave the way for Vietnamese tourism to access more markets across Europe,” Binh predicted.

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Vietnam ripe for ultra-rich tourism boost

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Vietnam is attempting to increase its allure to ultra-wealthy tourists in a way that would not only bring economic benefits, but also encourage a rise in service quality in the industry.

Vietnam ripe for ultra-rich tourism boost
Some localities are catering to well-off groups who come for sightseeing, relaxation, or lavish weddings, photo Le Toan

A month ago, two American millionaires from the financial sector, Jeff Grinspoon and John Thomas Foley, participated in a three-day, two-night tour of Halong Bay as part of an exclusive tour programme for the ultra-wealthy being promoted by the northeastern province of Quang Ninh.

On the first day, the pair enjoyed relaxation, dining, and entertainment on a cruise, kayaking around Cong Do and Tra San areas. On the second day, they visited the fishing village of Vung Vieng, explored the Tien Ong area, and kayaked on Ba Ham Lake.

On the final day of the journey, the guests admired the landscapes of Bai Tu Long Bay and Halong Bay before moving back to Tuan Chau Port to conclude the trip.

To cater to such travellers, Quang Ninh has prepared conditions to ensure their satisfaction, including expeditiously developing the beaches Soi Sim, Hang Co, and Trinh Nu as well as identifying seven pristine island areas and exclusive beaches for the super luxury segment.

At the same time, the province is focused on enhancing the tourism experience through connecting private cruise services to islands or helicopter transfers, and researching the holding of art performances combined with cocktail parties in well-equipped caves to create a unique experience.

Quang Ninh Department of Tourism understands that several wealthy groups from around the world will visit Halong on special tour programmes in May. In June, around 200 other wealthy people from various countries are expected to visit the destination as part of the Art for Climate Festival Halong.

According to Deputy Minister of Culture, Sports, and Tourism Ho An Phong, the global luxury tourism market reached over $2.18 trillion in 2024 and is forecasted to exceed $3 trillion by 2032. “Vietnam has one of the new seven natural wonders of the world, three UNESCO world natural heritage sites, 15 intangible cultural heritage sites, over 40,000 historical and scenic sites, a rich folk music tradition, and diverse cuisine. It has many advantages to develop luxury tour products,” Phong said.

One successful example is the Son Doong cave expedition in the central province of Quang Binh. Although the tour is expensive and has a limited number of guests, it is typically sold out as soon as bookings are opened, said DM Phong. “This is an opportunity for Vietnam to enhance its exploitation of the luxury market, a huge revenue source for Vietnamese tourism,” he added.

Prof. Pham Hong Long, head of the Tourism Department at Hanoi University of Social Sciences and Humanities, stated that to exploit the potential of high-end products, Vietnam’s tourism industry must focus on developing culture, cuisine, customisation, community, and content.

“Traditional cultural values need to be preserved and promoted, combined with modern experiences to create trips rich in identity,” Long said. “Investment in premium culinary experiences, service design based on each tourist’s individual needs, opportunities for tourists to immerse themselves in local life, and continuous innovation of new tourism products – ranging from golf and helicopter sightseeing to cruises and wellness – are necessary to meet the diverse demands.”

The Vietnamese tourism industry also needs to focus on infrastructure, improving services, and building policies to support businesses, he added.

“Airports, highways, and marinas need to be well-invested to ensure convenient connections between high-end destinations, and luxury resorts must meet international standards in terms of design, amenities, and services,” Long said. “At the same time, simplifying entry procedures will help luxury tourists easily choose Vietnam as a destination.”

Ngo Thi Huong, vice general director of Business and Marketing at Vinpearl, said that the high-end customer segment demands unique and personalised products.

“To attract high-end tourists, the tourism industry needs to build products related to healthcare, green tourism, and sustainable tourism. Depending on the target customer, tailored products are required. For instance, South Korean tourists who enjoy golf tourism need high-quality related products, supported by specific promotional policies,” Huong advised.

According to Vietravel chairman Nguyen Quoc Ky, trips taken by ultra-wealthy individuals are typically tightly controlled in terms of their personal information and schedules.

However, the impact of these trips still gradually spreads within the network of entrepreneurs and high-level relationships, opening up opportunities to welcome more guests from elite circles.

“An ordinary product can still become a high-end one if managed properly,” Ky said. “The perception of the customer will determine whether the product is considered high-end or low-end tourism. A hotel with 5-star facilities but an unprofessional staff and poor service will not be perceived as one by tourists.”

All Asia Vacation CEO Nguyen Duc Hanh said that travelling to Vietnam is becoming a trend among the ultra-wealthy. “Among individuals with total assets over $30 million, the company has served about 100 different clients travelling to Vietnam in 2024, a 12 per cent increase from the previous year,” Hanh said. “Many destinations around the world have become outdated for ultra-wealthy guests. Vietnam also has the advantage of being a relatively new tourist destination, so there is a demand for unique experiences here.”

According to World Ultra Wealth 2024, in the next five years, the global ultra-wealthy population is projected to increase by 38 per cent, reaching 587,600 individuals with a total wealth increase of $19 trillion.

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Green e-commerce in Vietnam still faces challenges

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The lack of regulations and businesses’ reluctance to engage in environmental protection efforts have made it difficult for Vietnam’s e-commerce sector to transition to a greener model.

Green e-commerce in Vietnam still faces challenges
Vietnam’s e-commerce market is projected to grow at an average annual rate of over 20 per cent between 2024 and 2030, reaching approximately 90 billion USD by 2030, according to VECOM. (Photo: tapchitaichinh.vn)

Hanoi – While the overall macro policies on environmental protection and sustainable development are creating favourable conditions for green e-commerce, the actual implementation of green transformation still faces numerous challenges.

One key obstacle is that policies have yet to link environmental protection requirements, according to the report on the E-commerce Green Index (ECGI), released by a research team from the Vietnam E-commerce Association (VECOM) and the World Wide Fund (WWF) Vietnam.

Legal documents related to e-commerce rarely include specific environmental protection regulations. Instead, they primarily focus on restricting the trade of certain prohibited or conditionally permitted goods and services.

Additionally, there is a lack of coordinated action among stakeholders, including Government agencies overseeing e-commerce, logistics, postal services, environmental management, businesses and consumers.

Most online businesses are not actively engaged in environmental protection efforts due to limited awareness, increased operational costs and the absence of clear legal regulations.

This situation also affects awareness-raising efforts for businesses and consumers in the green e-commerce sector, which remains fragmented and insufficient.

Roadmap for transformation

To address these challenges, the research team has introduced the ECGI framework, which sets out criteria and a roadmap for gradually transitioning toward greener e-commerce.

The framework is designed to help businesses quickly and comprehensively identify specific environmentally friendly actions. This, in turn, enhances their reputation and business efficiency, especially as consumers are increasingly prioritising brands that demonstrate environmental responsibility.

It is structured into six major criteria, comprising 19 sub-criteria. The first group is the commitment to deploy green e-commerce in a sustainable model. In this criterion, the research unit recommends that businesses make a clear commitment to green e-commerce businesses following a sustainable model.

The second is goods-related standards. This includes two sub-criteria, which are prohibiting the sale of environmental products banned by law and ensuring compliance with regulations governing restricted and conditionally permitted products.

The third group of criteria is order fulfilment services. It encompasses several sub-criteria, including avoiding the use of plastic packaging and materials prohibited by law, limiting the use of plastic packaging and other environmentally harmful materials in order fulfilment, prioritising eco-friendly packaging and managing warehouses and delivery operations sustainably.

It is essential to encourage and assist customers in reducing or eliminating the use of single-use plastics, promote low-carbon delivery options and facilitate consumer feedback on businesses’ environmental protection activities.

Following are internal green commitments. The research team proposed the need for environmental protection policies, energy saving and the integration of renewable energy sources into their operations.

The final group of criteria is researching and implementing green business models. This includes promoting circular economy practices, developing responsible business guidelines for consumer protection in e-commerce and adopting the Corporate Sustainability Index (CSI) for e-commerce enterprises.

Vietnam’s e-commerce market is projected to grow at an average annual rate of over 20 per cent between 2024 and 2030, reaching approximately 90 billion USD by 2030, according to VECOM.

While this growth brings economic benefits, it also exerts increasing pressure on the environment.

The rising volume of plastic waste from packaging and greenhouse gas emissions from delivery operations have surged alongside the sector’s rapid expansion. Addressing these environmental concerns is crucial to ensuring that Vietnam’s e-commerce industry develops sustainably.

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