Under Trump’s administration in the next four years, there might be further supply chain diversification, acceleration of friendshoring and nearshoring strategies, and trade polarization globally. Vietnam may benefit from these trends, write Avison Young Vietnam analysts.
David Jackson, principal and CEO of Avison Young Vietnam. Photo courtesy of the company.
Donald Trump won the 2024 election and will start his second presidential term in the next couple of weeks. The world is now looking forward to the next four years with mixed anticipation. What’s next for Vietnam real estate market?
Registered FDI into Vietnam from the U.S., mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan from 2015 to September 2024.
Vietnam among key beneficiaries in the global trade since Trump’s first presidential term
In the period of 2017-September 2024, registered and realized FDI into Vietnam increased 3.3% and 1.9% on average annually, in respective order.
Registered FDI from mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan into Vietnam trended upward in the same period. During the years of Covid-19 (2020-2022), investment from mainland China and Hongkong dipped, while that from Singapore peaked.
New FDI projects into Vietnam from the U.S., mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan from 2025 to September 2024.
Manufacturing and real estate sectors continued to benefit from the shift of FDI into Vietnam, partly in line with the supply chain diversification trend which was sped up since the onset of the U.S.-China trade tension in 2018, as seen in the chart below.
During the same period, export from Vietnam to the U.S. and import from China to Vietnam grew significantly.
Real estate transactions in Vietnam accelerated, with the number of deals went up by almost 20% in the period of 2017-June 2024 compared to the pre-Trump period (2009-2016). Most transactions were recorded in the industrial, hotel, and office real estate sectors, in descending order.
Some notable new manufacturing facilities from mainland China and Hongkong which were set up in Vietnam since 2017:
What’s next?
Under Trump’s administration in the next four years, trade tension is predicted to be more unpredictable. The vow to impose up to 60% tariff on Chinese imported goods and 10-20% on all imports seem to ignite retaliation from not only China but also other U.S. trade partners such as the EU.
This, in a sense, may further the ongoing supply chain diversification, the acceleration of friendshoring and nearshoring strategies, and the trade polarization globally. Vietnam may benefit from these trends, as some businesses have already relocated or expanded their production and logistic facilities in the country and probably will continue to do so in the effort of risk mitigation as well as new market penetration.
After all, they can tap into the Vietnam domestic market of almost 100 million people, and the regional market of roughly 675 million people in Southeast Asia.
However, not much anticipation can be made of whether the Trump administration is going to go to the extreme end by heightening tariffs based on the origin of goods (or the “economic nationality” of a product).
During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% tariff on vehicles imported from Mexico due to the manufacturing link to China. Vietnam, as shown in the data above, has been benefiting from the China+1 strategy, with a surge in FDI, the number of newly registered FDI projects, the number of real estate transactions, and the volume of exports to the U.S.
And Trump, in his first presidential term, had complained about the U.S.-Vietnam gapping trade deficit, threatening to impose tariffs on products from the country amid the then ongoing trade tension with China.
Trump also repeatedly said that he would impose tariffs on products if produced by Chinese-owned companies, rebutting the traditional country-of-origin rules. The question now is to what extent and how soon he can start acting on these vows.
If the Republicans win majority in the US House of Representatives, a strong control for Donald Trump and less barriers for the roll-out of his policies will be likely.
With that being said, Vietnam is inarguably one of the most potential economies in the world. With an abundant and affordable labor force, strategic geography location, relative political stability, and favorable FDI policies, Vietnam has gone through successful transformation in the recent decades.
The institutional quality has been improved over the years and much effort has been put into infrastructure development to further the connectivity and logistic efficiency across the nation.
The commitment of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) to supporting firms in their development was evidenced at a conference on technology’s role in applying sustainability practices that took place in Ho Chi Minh City on March 12.
The event presented key topics including international standards and technological solutions for carbon emissions’ management, environmental, social, and governance policy evaluation based on global standards, and the application of technology in optimising operational costs.
ACCA event highlights technology’s role in sustainability practices
The conference served as a platform for future-oriented businesses to share their successes and challenges while fostering collaboration among those committed to sustainability.
During the conference, Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia, delivered in-depth insights into ACCA’s role in supporting businesses in building sustainable development capabilities.
Citing 2024 trade figures, Varma noted that Vietnam’s import-export turnover maintained unprecedented levels over the past 40 years, supported by the enforcement of over 17 trade agreements.
Vietnam-EU trade exceeded $67 billion, with numerous domestic enterprises integrating into European and global supply chains.
“Implementing sustainability reporting is imperative for Vietnamese firms participating in global supply chains to comply with Europe’s mandatory sustainability disclosure regulations. The key challenge is how businesses can effectively implement sustainability reporting with existing resources while meeting international standards,” said Varma.
Ren Varma, head of Mainland Southeast Asia, ACCA. Photo: ACCA Vietnam
Representatives from various other organisations, such as VACPA, FPT, Unilever, HDBank, PwC, and the University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City shared their experiences in leveraging technology for sustainability.
These real-world case studies enabled participants to gain practical insights into how best to apply technology to sustainable management, while understanding the essential competencies required for effective implementation.
At the event, experts reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing capabilities and professional expertise in achieving national sustainable development goals and the target of Net-Zero by 2050.
Photo: ACCA Vietnam
ACCA pledged its continued support by launching the Professional Diploma in Sustainability (ProDipSust) across more than 180 countries, including Vietnam. This initiative aims to equip professionals with the necessary expertise to implement sustainable business practices.
ProDipSust not only provides in-depth knowledge on sustainability but also guides businesses on practical applications, from understanding international frameworks and regulations to strategic management, sustainability reporting, and assurance.
Recognised as a globally standardised knowledge framework, this diploma plays a crucial role in strengthening corporate sustainability governance, ensuring transparency, and complying with international standards.
Beyond offering training programmes, ACCA actively collaborates with leading organisations to drive sustainable development initiatives.
Beyond offering training activities, ACCA collaborates with major organisations to drive sustainability initiatives. In this seminar, ACCA Vietnam, in partnership with VACPA and PwC Vietnam, established a highly practical forum to help Vietnamese firms align with international standards and devise effective sustainability strategies.
Ren Varma underscored the critical role of finance and accounting professionals in advancing sustainable development, saying, “Financial expertise is not just about financial reporting, it plays a fundamental role in shaping sustainable strategies. Finance professionals are responsible for integrating sustainability initiatives into business models, accurately measuring their impact, and transparently communicating them to stakeholders. ACCA’s certification serves as a vital tool for businesses and individuals to enhance their expertise in this field.”
“With a strong commitment to fostering sustainability competencies, ACCA will continue to support businesses and financial professionals on their journey towards a responsible and sustainable economy,” he added.
Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.
Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.
Photo: Le Toan
Talking with VIR on March 4, Doan Manh Thang, director of water and resilience at Royal HaskoningDHV Vietnam, said the Saigon River has great potential but has not been exploited properly. The plan will map out a waterway from Cu Chi to the city centre.
Royal HaskoningDHV is the leader of a consortium that includes Boston Consulting Group, Roland Berger, the Ministry of Construction, and ACUD Consult that has been tasked with developing this plan which was approved by the prime minister on December 31, 2024.
The plan aims to develop Ho Chi Minh City into a hub of high-quality human resources, modern services, and advanced industries, pioneering in the green economy, the digital economy, and a digital society. It will also maintain its position as Vietnam’s leading centre for economy, finance, commerce, culture, education, and science and technology, with deep international integration.
“We can build service areas such as marinas and commercial centres along the river, alongside green spaces,” Thang said.
Moreover, a metro line from the city centre to Can Gio Island could act as the driving force for the city to reach double-digit growth, he confirmed.
Can Gio Port, meanwhile, is strategically located opposite Cai Mep-Thi Vai Port – the largest international port in Vietnam. However, it is only operating at 50 per cent capacity. The government has decided to upgrade Can Gio Port to become an international transit centre, with an estimated investment of $4 billion. The port is expected to handle 10 per cent of Vietnam’s imports and exports, of which 90 per cent will be international transshipment.
According to Phan Van Mai, newly appointed Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee and former Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, the city will strive for regional GDP growth of 8.5-9.0 per year until 2030.
“To effectively implement the plan, the city needs to mobilise resources, attract investment, develop human resources, and apply science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and environmental protection,” Mai said.
Meanwhile, Thang said that the biggest bottleneck in implementing this plan is the lack of mechanisms to entice capital.
“Public investment is the seed capital to stimulate investment from other economic sectors. In fact, many investors are interested, but the mechanisms for investment must be more detailed,” he said.
A resolution issued in June 2023 grants special mechanisms for the development of Ho Chi Minh City. Meanwhile, in February 2025, the National Assembly issued another resolution for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City to invest and develop metro systems. On that basis, Ho Chi Minh City will invest simultaneously and complete seven routes with a total length of 355km within 10 years.
“Initially, the state will have to spend money because it will be difficult to attract investment, but when it starts to take shape, private investors will be looking to spend money to build infrastructure. This would remove the bottleneck, but still requires appropriate policies,” Thang said.
Thu Thiem New Urban Area on the Saigon River has been allocated as the site for Vietnam’s first International Financial Centre.
Thu Thiem New Urban Area – the new financial and economic hub of Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Le Toan
In total, 11 plots covering 9.2 hectares in the Number 1 Functional Area will be used for the project in Thu Duc city.
The location was reported to the local Department of Telecommunications on March 11 to set up a plan to develop telecommunications and digital infrastructure for the centre.
Thu Thiem New Urban Area was approved in 1996 covering 930 hectares on the east bank of the Saigon River and opposite District 1. When completed, the area will have a population of 200,000 people.
The area will be divided into a central core, a northern residential area, a residential area along Mai Chi Tho Avenue, an eastern residential area, and a southern zone.
On January 4, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired a conference to announce an action plan to implement a regional and international financial centre in Ho Chi Minh City.
At the conference, PM Chinh said that Ho Chi Minh City is located at the head of Southeast Asia, making it convenient for trade and financial connections with major markets such as China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN. Building a financial centre there will help reduce costs and transaction times for traders.
To accelerate the project, early this year, Ho Chi Minh City established a steering committee for the construction and development of the centre with 29 members. The establishment of the international financial centre is expected to create a foundation for the future growth of Ho Chi Minh City. This is also an opportunity for the city to attract international investors and increase foreign investment in various sectors.