Surajit Rakshit, country head of global trade solutions at HSBC Vietnam, analyzes key trends that will shape the future of global trade and their implications for Vietnam.
Surajit Rakshit, country head of global trade solutions, HSBC Vietnam. Photo courtesy of the bank.
Against a challenging backdrop of high inflation, economic slowdown, and geopolitical conflicts, trade is expected to grow gradually. Despite a 1.2% contraction in merchandise trade volume in 2023, the WTO predicts a modest rebound with a growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, mirroring similar projections for global GDP.
The global trade landscape is undergoing significant transformation due to technological advancements, evolving customer needs and sustainability initiatives. As the world gears up for a period of change, new trends will emerge that will reshape trade for years to come.
Shift to regionalization
The Covid-19 pandemic altered the world in many ways, one of which was the reversal of globalization we’ve seen in decades. As globalization becomes less prevalent, regionalization will be driven further by geopolitical factors which could further fragment the world into West-East and North-South trade blocs. This new era of multilateralism will see the emergence of new trade blocs and corridors in Asia and North America.
Over the next few years, there will be an increase in friendshoring – where supply chain networks are focused on countries regarded as political and economic allies. Meanwhile, bilateral and multilateral trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will strengthen inter-regional trade corridors.
These would play a crucial role in promoting regionalization by reducing trade barriers, harmonizing regulations, improving infrastructure and connectivity, fostering economic cooperation, strengthening institutional frameworks, and enhancing cultural and social ties within the region.
Fast-growing emerging markets that are pursuing non-aligned strategies will benefit from increased trade in the multipolar landscape. Emerging markets like Mexico, Vietnam and India are positioning themselves as alternative sources of production to China, in particular for manufacturing goods, and seeing companies shift supply chain segments to their markets.
In the Middle East, countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are capitalizing on their status as a relatively neutral political arbiter and their central geographical position as well as a trade facilitator between East and West and the Global South.
Supply chain restructuring
As a consequence of regionalization, corporates are prioritizing resilience over cost savings and efficiencies in their supply chains. They will de-risk their logistics networks by moving production out of areas affected by conflict, protectionism, and climate change. This may result in longer shipping routes and elevated costs but favor reliability and security.
Meanwhile, potential escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China will lead to a gap in global trade. Many emerging markets have filled in the gap as alternative sources of production for goods. This can create benefits to global supply chains and trade in the long term, especially as bystander countries have boosted their exports to the U.S. and the rest of the world, while their exports to China have remained largely unaffected. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea and Mexico have surfaced as major export beneficiaries in this shift to alternative centers to Chinese exports.
Widespread AI adoption
Artificial intelligence (AI) is set to overtake blockchain to be the most disruptive technology for businesses and revolutionize trade in the future. This will herald a paradigm shift in the operating environment, as businesses embrace the ability to optimize supply chains, enhance efficiency and reduce costs through predictive analytics, drive data-driven market insights to capture new business opportunities, and use AI-powered trade finance solutions to streamline transactions.
AI holds a transformative power which is capable of influencing what is traded, how, and at what cost. The dawn of AI heralds a new era of digitally driven trade, fuelled by advancements in blockchain, big data, and additive manufacturing across sectors. While the potential is vast, concerns remain in shaping appropriate regulations amidst diverging rules on data flows and harmonization.
Implications for Vietnam
Asian supply chains are undergoing major structural changes, a number of which favor the shift to ASEAN. As Asia’s supply chains evolve, this has led to the rise of new locations in the region’s supply chain landscape. Countries that had historically been central to Asia’s supply chains, namely China, South Korea and Japan, are being joined by new players.
Vietnam, for instance, has emerged as a significant manufacturing and export hub, especially in electronics. Attracted by the country’s competitive labour costs and relatively stable political environment, companies such as Samsung and Intel have made significant investments. Samsung alone accounted for approximately 20% of Vietnam’s total exports in 2023, making Vietnam a crucial node in the global electronics supply chain.
Over the next few years, it is unlikely that we will witness a reduction in trade, but rather a shift in where trade takes place. This reconfiguration of global supply chains, driven by a combination of economic and geopolitical factors, offers multinational corporates opportunities to reinforce and optimize their logistics networks. It also represents a significant potential for Vietnam.
The future of trade is exciting as new trends and patterns evolve. Companies are looking at adopting smarter trade which would drive global economic growth and social progress.
The commitment of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) to supporting firms in their development was evidenced at a conference on technology’s role in applying sustainability practices that took place in Ho Chi Minh City on March 12.
The event presented key topics including international standards and technological solutions for carbon emissions’ management, environmental, social, and governance policy evaluation based on global standards, and the application of technology in optimising operational costs.
ACCA event highlights technology’s role in sustainability practices
The conference served as a platform for future-oriented businesses to share their successes and challenges while fostering collaboration among those committed to sustainability.
During the conference, Ren Varma, ACCA’s head of Mainland Southeast Asia, delivered in-depth insights into ACCA’s role in supporting businesses in building sustainable development capabilities.
Citing 2024 trade figures, Varma noted that Vietnam’s import-export turnover maintained unprecedented levels over the past 40 years, supported by the enforcement of over 17 trade agreements.
Vietnam-EU trade exceeded $67 billion, with numerous domestic enterprises integrating into European and global supply chains.
“Implementing sustainability reporting is imperative for Vietnamese firms participating in global supply chains to comply with Europe’s mandatory sustainability disclosure regulations. The key challenge is how businesses can effectively implement sustainability reporting with existing resources while meeting international standards,” said Varma.
Ren Varma, head of Mainland Southeast Asia, ACCA. Photo: ACCA Vietnam
Representatives from various other organisations, such as VACPA, FPT, Unilever, HDBank, PwC, and the University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City shared their experiences in leveraging technology for sustainability.
These real-world case studies enabled participants to gain practical insights into how best to apply technology to sustainable management, while understanding the essential competencies required for effective implementation.
At the event, experts reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing capabilities and professional expertise in achieving national sustainable development goals and the target of Net-Zero by 2050.
Photo: ACCA Vietnam
ACCA pledged its continued support by launching the Professional Diploma in Sustainability (ProDipSust) across more than 180 countries, including Vietnam. This initiative aims to equip professionals with the necessary expertise to implement sustainable business practices.
ProDipSust not only provides in-depth knowledge on sustainability but also guides businesses on practical applications, from understanding international frameworks and regulations to strategic management, sustainability reporting, and assurance.
Recognised as a globally standardised knowledge framework, this diploma plays a crucial role in strengthening corporate sustainability governance, ensuring transparency, and complying with international standards.
Beyond offering training programmes, ACCA actively collaborates with leading organisations to drive sustainable development initiatives.
Beyond offering training activities, ACCA collaborates with major organisations to drive sustainability initiatives. In this seminar, ACCA Vietnam, in partnership with VACPA and PwC Vietnam, established a highly practical forum to help Vietnamese firms align with international standards and devise effective sustainability strategies.
Ren Varma underscored the critical role of finance and accounting professionals in advancing sustainable development, saying, “Financial expertise is not just about financial reporting, it plays a fundamental role in shaping sustainable strategies. Finance professionals are responsible for integrating sustainability initiatives into business models, accurately measuring their impact, and transparently communicating them to stakeholders. ACCA’s certification serves as a vital tool for businesses and individuals to enhance their expertise in this field.”
“With a strong commitment to fostering sustainability competencies, ACCA will continue to support businesses and financial professionals on their journey towards a responsible and sustainable economy,” he added.
Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.
Ho Chi Minh City has announced plans to develop infrastructure along the Saigon River towards the East Sea.
Photo: Le Toan
Talking with VIR on March 4, Doan Manh Thang, director of water and resilience at Royal HaskoningDHV Vietnam, said the Saigon River has great potential but has not been exploited properly. The plan will map out a waterway from Cu Chi to the city centre.
Royal HaskoningDHV is the leader of a consortium that includes Boston Consulting Group, Roland Berger, the Ministry of Construction, and ACUD Consult that has been tasked with developing this plan which was approved by the prime minister on December 31, 2024.
The plan aims to develop Ho Chi Minh City into a hub of high-quality human resources, modern services, and advanced industries, pioneering in the green economy, the digital economy, and a digital society. It will also maintain its position as Vietnam’s leading centre for economy, finance, commerce, culture, education, and science and technology, with deep international integration.
“We can build service areas such as marinas and commercial centres along the river, alongside green spaces,” Thang said.
Moreover, a metro line from the city centre to Can Gio Island could act as the driving force for the city to reach double-digit growth, he confirmed.
Can Gio Port, meanwhile, is strategically located opposite Cai Mep-Thi Vai Port – the largest international port in Vietnam. However, it is only operating at 50 per cent capacity. The government has decided to upgrade Can Gio Port to become an international transit centre, with an estimated investment of $4 billion. The port is expected to handle 10 per cent of Vietnam’s imports and exports, of which 90 per cent will be international transshipment.
According to Phan Van Mai, newly appointed Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee and former Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, the city will strive for regional GDP growth of 8.5-9.0 per year until 2030.
“To effectively implement the plan, the city needs to mobilise resources, attract investment, develop human resources, and apply science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and environmental protection,” Mai said.
Meanwhile, Thang said that the biggest bottleneck in implementing this plan is the lack of mechanisms to entice capital.
“Public investment is the seed capital to stimulate investment from other economic sectors. In fact, many investors are interested, but the mechanisms for investment must be more detailed,” he said.
A resolution issued in June 2023 grants special mechanisms for the development of Ho Chi Minh City. Meanwhile, in February 2025, the National Assembly issued another resolution for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City to invest and develop metro systems. On that basis, Ho Chi Minh City will invest simultaneously and complete seven routes with a total length of 355km within 10 years.
“Initially, the state will have to spend money because it will be difficult to attract investment, but when it starts to take shape, private investors will be looking to spend money to build infrastructure. This would remove the bottleneck, but still requires appropriate policies,” Thang said.
Thu Thiem New Urban Area on the Saigon River has been allocated as the site for Vietnam’s first International Financial Centre.
Thu Thiem New Urban Area – the new financial and economic hub of Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Le Toan
In total, 11 plots covering 9.2 hectares in the Number 1 Functional Area will be used for the project in Thu Duc city.
The location was reported to the local Department of Telecommunications on March 11 to set up a plan to develop telecommunications and digital infrastructure for the centre.
Thu Thiem New Urban Area was approved in 1996 covering 930 hectares on the east bank of the Saigon River and opposite District 1. When completed, the area will have a population of 200,000 people.
The area will be divided into a central core, a northern residential area, a residential area along Mai Chi Tho Avenue, an eastern residential area, and a southern zone.
On January 4, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired a conference to announce an action plan to implement a regional and international financial centre in Ho Chi Minh City.
At the conference, PM Chinh said that Ho Chi Minh City is located at the head of Southeast Asia, making it convenient for trade and financial connections with major markets such as China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN. Building a financial centre there will help reduce costs and transaction times for traders.
To accelerate the project, early this year, Ho Chi Minh City established a steering committee for the construction and development of the centre with 29 members. The establishment of the international financial centre is expected to create a foundation for the future growth of Ho Chi Minh City. This is also an opportunity for the city to attract international investors and increase foreign investment in various sectors.